Coach Stephen Ambrose Sarkisian.......Staff

[Joe Fan]

He better watch out for Banks' gf

 

[Run Pincher]

Well that came out of the blue. He sounds like a good one.

That was my 1st thought, who is this guy?? But the numbers look good and as upset as UW fans seem to be with the speculation this could be a good one.

 

[p_town_horn]

Regarding draft picks

 

[Joe Fan]

I agree. Three sort of invisible things about defense: First, as you say, conference and opposing QBs. In retrospect, giving up 400 yards to Patrick Mahomes doesn’t actually prove you are an idiot. Second, style of your own offense. If you run an offense that gives you and your opponent 90 plays each, well of course you give up 2x the points and yards of 55 play games. Third, weak links. You can do brilliant coaching and schemes but have 1 or 2 positions that are poorly recruited or decimated by injury, and a flood of points and yards pours through that one hole, making it look like you didn’t even coach or prepare at all.
I think we can field 11 good players, so if the coaching is good, we can have good enough defense relative to the number of plays. Statistics really aren’t the best predictor.

I don't know if it was your intent, but that reads like an excuse for people like Manny Diaz, Vance Bedford and Todd Orlando. If you dont think much of modern defensive stats, then perhaps consider that the NFL agrees. They keep taking UW defensive players in the 1st and 2d round (while Texas has not had a 1st or 2d round defensive pick since 2015, and just 2 total in the last 8 drafts).

This guy is about as good of a DC you can find anywhere in college football, and this is especially true when you consider his record against modern offenses. And this goes for, IMO at least, the defensive coaching tree of Nick Saban.

Check out what he did to one of the father's of modern college offenses. He owned Leach. This is Washington St points scored vs UW:

2014: 13 (lowest point total for WSU that year)
2015: 10 (lowest point total for WSU that year)
2016: 17 (2nd lowest point total for WSU that year)
2017: 14 (2nd lowest point total for WSU that year)
2018: 15 (lowest point total for WSU that year)
2019: 13 (lowest point total for WSU that year)​

 

[Joe Fan]

Modern CFB analytics guy

 

[moondog_LFZ]

Report: Coleman Hutzler to join Ole Miss coaching staff

 

[VYFan]

I don't know if it was your intent, but that reads like an excuse for people like Manny Diaz, Vance Bedford and Todd Orlando. If you dont think much of modern defensive stats, then perhaps consider that the NFL agrees. They keep taking UW defensive players in the 1st and 2d round (while Texas has not had a 1st or 2d round defensive pick since 2015, and just 2 total in the last 8 drafts).

This guy is about as good of a DC you can find anywhere in college football, and this is especially true when you consider his record against modern offenses. And this goes for, IMO at least, the defensive coaching tree of Nick Saban.

Check out what he did to one of the father's of modern college offenses. He owned Leach. This is Washington St points scored vs UW:

2014: 13 (lowest point total for WSU that year)
2015: 10 (lowest point total for WSU that year)
2016: 17 (2nd lowest point total for WSU that year)
2017: 14 (2nd lowest point total for WSU that year)
2018: 15 (lowest point total for WSU that year)
2019: 13 (lowest point total for WSU that year)​

I was more agreeing with you than disagreeing. The player development is a very good measure of a coach, for sure. I do think that some of our past defensive coordinators have been judged too harshly considering what they were up against and what our confused offensive strategies did to them, but I didn’t have anyone specific in mind. Look at Alabama—when they changed their offensive approach, they started giving up 3x the points (and winning), and not because their defensive coaches suddenly forgot how to coach. I’m mainly saying statistics are very misleading.

 

[Joe Fan]

I was more agreeing with you than disagreeing. The player development is a very good measure of a coach, for sure. I do think that some of our past defensive coordinators have been judged too harshly considering what they were up against and what our confused offensive strategies did to them, but I didn’t have anyone specific in mind. Look at Alabama—when they changed their offensive approach, they started giving up 3x the points (and winning), and not because their defensive coaches suddenly forgot how to coach. I’m mainly saying statistics are very misleading.

DFEI and SP account for opponents and SOS

 

[VYFan]

DFEI and SP account for opponents and SOS

So I am way over my head here, because I don’t know how these are calculated, but do they account for what one’s own offensive strategy is doing to your own defense? Not sure how that is being measured.
Offenses that are prone to quick strikes, 3 and outs, turnovers, high risk/return plays and series, they make defense hard. When they work, and you get a lead, then defenses play more bend not break and give up soft yards and point. When they don’t work, the defense suddenly has to defend a barrage of plays in bad positions. How does the offense handle scoring and field position? Do they punt or go for 4th and 3 at midfield? Do they take field goals and play close games or just start aiming for a shootout from the first series? Do they handle the last two minutes of a half where the other team can’t get the ball back, or screw up the time management? When ahead by 10 points, do they run the clock out ala Mack Brown, or just score more and give the ball back ala OU?

Maybe there is a way to measure it, but I think what the offense does is fundamental to how good the defense can look.

 

[Joe Fan]

So I am way over my head here, because I don’t know how these are calculated, but do they account for what one’s own offensive strategy is doing to your own defense? Not sure how that is being measured.
Offenses that are prone to quick strikes, 3 and outs, turnovers, high risk/return plays and series, they make defense hard. When they work, and you get a lead, then defenses play more bend not break and give up soft yards and point. When they don’t work, the defense suddenly has to defend a barrage of plays in bad positions. How does the offense handle scoring and field position? Do they punt or go for 4th and 3 at midfield? Do they take field goals and play close games or just start aiming for a shootout from the first series? Do they handle the last two minutes of a half where the other team can’t get the ball back, or screw up the time management? When ahead by 10 points, do they run the clock out ala Mack Brown, or just score more and give the ball back ala OU?

Maybe there is a way to measure it, but I think what the offense does is fundamental to how good the defense can look.

They look at actual results more than what people say their philosophies are. We have computers now and can a lot more with sports statistics than we could in the 1960s. There is no reason to rely any longer on the old school, standard stuff

I feel like I've posted this 100 times --

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Unadjusted possession efficiency (PE) is calculated as a function of offensive, defensive, and special teams game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession opponent adjustment (OA). Opponent-adjusted offense ratings (OFEI), opponent-adjusted defense ratings (DFEI), and opponent-adjusted special teams ratings (SFEI) are calculated in a similar manner as overall FEI ratings. Team records against all FBS opponents (W-L) and against opponents ranked in the FEI top 10 (v10), top 20 (v20), top 30 (v30), top 40 (v40), and top 50 (v50) are also provided.​

Ratings and supporting data are calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games.
​

On SP+ (which is a stat bettors love), the inventor says --

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

The SP+ rankings generally perform well against the spread -- 52 to 54 percent success over a full season, which is excellent for a system projecting every game and not specifically adjusting for injury.

-- Bill Connelly​

 

[George Bailey]

I pride myself on being a man of few words. Not that I don't talk a lot, its just that I don't know very many words. And stuff like that hurts my head.

 

[LonghornCatholic]

 

[bystander]

WOW

 

[LonghornCatholic]

 

[Driver 8]

It's nice to see what appears to be a very solid staff taking shape
I'm feeling optimistic about the Sark era

 

[Joe Fan]

I pride myself on being a man of few words. Not that I don't talk a lot, its just that I don't know very many words. And stuff like that hurts my head.

LOL. And that is one reason why the summary rankings are so handy!

 

[Joe Fan]

It's nice to see what appears to be a very solid staff taking shape
I'm feeling optimistic about the Sark era

 

[Joe Fan]

Report: Coleman Hutzler to join Ole Miss coaching staff

There is quite a bit of chatter out there that Sark made a mistake for basically trading Gideon fro Hutzler. We will see

 

[RainH2burntO]

Of the Texas paysites, TFB was way ahead of any of the rest of them
They knew about this for over a week, were asked to sit on it, did sit on it, but strongly hinted it was coming.
They kept saying there was another DC target no one had mentioned yet, that it was going to happen and that everyone would like the choice
All the other paysites were just taking their paying customers for a ride

I sort of dont like this since the TFB guys are mostly Oklahoma but it is what it is

I just like that we've got some guys now who have realized for business to be conducted well in the sphere of football hiring and firing there needs to be a greater level of privacy.

 

[RainH2burntO]

There is quite a bit of chatter out there that Sark made a mistake for basically trading Gideon fro Hutzler. We will see

Yeah. I have my doubts. Dont know much about Gideon, but from my perspective I feel like Hutzler has done well managing what has been a very fluid linebacker room.
Thoughts??

 

[RainH2burntO]

There is quite a bit of chatter out there that Sark made a mistake for basically trading Gideon fro Hutzler. We will see

That was probably 0's sad tweet

 

[Joe Fan]

...2014: 13 (lowest point total for WSU that year)

2015: 10 (lowest point total for WSU that year)
2016: 17 (2nd lowest point total for WSU that year)
2017: 14 (2nd lowest point total for WSU that year)
2018: 15 (lowest point total for WSU that year)
2019: 13 (lowest point total for WSU that year)​

In addition to what he did to Leach, Kwiatkowski also held Sark to just 12 points in his last game at USC which was only the 2nd time held under 20 while he was there

 

[Joe Fan]

I think this means we are playing chess with the hires

 

[Vino Bevo]

It's nice to see what appears to be a very solid staff taking shape
I'm feeling optimistic about the Sark era

Agreed - love the fact he took his time and threw out a wide net that goes beyond his inner circle and the "obvious" choices, many of whom don't turn out to be obvious as we've painfully experienced. The thoughtful approach he took to looking across the landscape and landing on this guy, if indeed he is THE guy and all he appears to be, makes me even more excited about Sark. Screw the big splash and do it right the first time.

 

[p_town_horn]

Count me as gruntled

 

[Joe Fan]

Some good fundamentals shown

 

[Vino Bevo]

Listening to local sports talk as I type this (Craig Way actually ) and he's talking about Kwiatkowski. Sounds like he favors a 2-4-5 base scheme with two stand up DEs, which would tend to be a nice fit for the players currently on campus.

 

[rick mueller]

I pride myself on being a man of few words. Not that I don't talk a lot, its just that I don't know very many words. And stuff like that hurts my head.

In the words of the legendary Detective Harry Callahan, "A man has got to know his limitations."

 

[4th_floor]

They look at actual results more than what people say their philosophies are. We have computers now and can a lot more with sports statistics than we could in the 1960s. There is no reason to rely any longer on the old school, standard stuff

I feel like I've posted this 100 times --

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) is a college football rating system based on opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, representing the per possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Unadjusted possession efficiency (PE) is calculated as a function of offensive, defensive, and special teams game splits. Schedule strength is represented by each team's average per possession opponent adjustment (OA). Opponent-adjusted offense ratings (OFEI), opponent-adjusted defense ratings (DFEI), and opponent-adjusted special teams ratings (SFEI) are calculated in a similar manner as overall FEI ratings. Team records against all FBS opponents (W-L) and against opponents ranked in the FEI top 10 (v10), top 20 (v20), top 30 (v30), top 40 (v40), and top 50 (v50) are also provided.​

Ratings and supporting data are calculated from the results of non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games.
​

On SP+ (which is a stat bettors love), the inventor says --

What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

The SP+ rankings generally perform well against the spread -- 52 to 54 percent success over a full season, which is excellent for a system projecting every game and not specifically adjusting for injury.

-- Bill Connelly​

As a self proclaimed math nerd, my opinion is that whoever developed these measures had way, way too much time on their hands.

 

[rick mueller]

One of my favorite scenes from the show.