2024 GOP Primary

Trump is actually +2 in rassmussen since Trump was rounded down and Harris was rounded up in whole numbers (e.g., 47.4 vs 45.5):

 
This is why a 2% pt shift after the debate basically seals the win for Trump:

 
Garmel said:
Mchammer, we appreciate the work you're doing on this thread, Good stuff.
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I find this stuff fascinating. You can see the bias in real time. I find it unbelievable that some people are so gullible. Recall in 2020 I said the polls were way off, and in deed, they were in many states. Without ballot harvesting and taking advantage of record mail-in ballots, Trump would have won. Are the polls better now? I think so to some degree, but you see the same old bias.
 
If you are wondering why Trump chances are ballooning in Nate Silver’s model, it accounts for the number of paths to 270. Because Trump is doing well in PA (again for some reason I can’t explain but it’s been there all year), it skews the chances to Trump.

In short, with more paths and with some of these states being true toss-ups, statistics say a few will go to Trump and if he has more paths to 270, then he has the advantage.
 
mchammer said:
I find it unbelievable that some people are so gullible.
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Total agreement. I cannot understand how there could even be ties. Stranger is that some of those folks are otherwise quite reasonable. Bubba before you go postal on me I’m not a Trump is unblemished kinda supporter I simply believe he is better at doing the job over Kamala by incalculable multiples.
 
mc
Maybe it is stupid on my part but I think the more it is reported Trump is ahead the more Demx will increase the cheating. Watching them change voting policies at last minute to make it easier to cheat with mail in ballots is mind blowing.
 
Note the negative change for Harris plus Emerson is a biased poll (3-4% points in 2020):

 
Trump learned from his last term that he needs to surround himself with better people.
Last time, he had the likes of Omarosa (reality "star") Scaramucci, or, good people leading in the wrong areas, like Ben Carson...HUD? Betsy DeVos in charge of education? Zero experience in either.

I like that he is aligning himself with people like Elon Musk who will trim the pork, Vivek Wamaswamy, and other exceptionally smart people to come up with solutions and hopefully, new, exciting ideas.
RFK, Jr. has some wild beliefs, but the thought of him helping with solutions to hopefully give the country some ways to be healthier, and some reasonable ideas to help the planet by planting more trees and pouring less concrete will be good for the tree huggers.
And I am a tree hugger, but am not a proponent of any of the green new deal garbage. I want clean air, trees, lake, and rivers. Cities with green spaces. But, not forced to buy an electric car, or give up my gas stove. (never!) or other stupid ideas that cost tons of money with little return.

I feel much more comfortable voting for Trump when he is surrounded by some of the brightest people around.
I think this shows some personal growth by Trump. He can't do it alone, and is bringing in some big guns to help.
 
Hollandtx said:
And I am a tree hugger, but am not a proponent of any of the green new deal garbage. I want clean air, trees, lake, and rivers. Cities with green spaces. But, not forced to buy an electric car, or give up my gas stove. (never!) or other stupid ideas that cost tons of money with little return.
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I suspect a HUUUUGE majority of Americans are just like you.
 
I don’t want to expose anyone, but someone on this site predicted a nosedive for Harris:

IMG_9645.jpeg
 
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