2024 GOP Primary

Polls before at least the first debate are basically click-bait. You have to remember there are more dems than Republicans and the majority of the dem voters will vote for SloJoe or whoever might replace him.

AZ is a mess and will stay a mess until it finally succumbs to all of the CA carpet baggers.
 
ViperHorn said:
Polls before at least the first debate are basically click-bait. You have to remember there are more dems than Republicans and the majority of the dem voters will vote for SloJoe or whoever might replace him.

AZ is a mess and will stay a mess until it finally succumbs to all of the CA carpet baggers.
Click to expand...
You must have missed my previous post regarding registered voters in PA and NC. In short, Dems massively losing their edge in voters.

Republicans Are Winning The Voter Registration Battle In Battleground States | ZeroHedge
 
Updated the math and the options:
1. Ohio is a lock, even more so than Florida.
2. NC is a lock.
3. CO is irrelevant - it’s a Biden lock.
4. Trump has lead in every poll for GA, AZ, and NV except one. It’s like 50 polls for Trump and 1 poll for Biden (combined).
5. Trump doesn’t have to win AZ, NV, MI, or WI if he wins GA and PA.
6. If Trump wins GA and AZ (not NV), he only needs to win one of PA, MI, or WI.
7. If Trump wins GA, AZ, and VA, then he can avoid NV, PA, MI, and WI.
8. If Trump wins GA, AZ, NV, and the all of the CD’s of Nebraska, he doesn’t need to win MI, WI, or PA to get 269 EV’s and thus a tie.


The biggest one is #5. Trump only needs to win PA and GA to win (270 votes) assuming NC, OH, and FL are locks.
 
ViperHorn said:
We agree on number 3. Your 5 is almost correct. GA and PA represent 35 votes so out of the other grouping you will need 35 votes and the Republicans to hold the House to break a tie. Your 7 doesn't make sense since the GA/AZ/VA Group is 10 votes short of the other Group.
Electoral College in the 2024 presidential election
Click to expand...
Please see photo of the EC map below. #5 is most certainly correct.

IMG_9108.jpeg
 
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ViperHorn said:
We agree on number 3. Your 5 is almost correct. GA and PA represent 35 votes so out of the other grouping you will need 35 votes and the Republicans to hold the House to break a tie. Your 7 doesn't make sense since the GA/AZ/VA Group is 10 votes short of the other Group.
Electoral College in the 2024 presidential election
Click to expand...
Where did I say one group of states had to equal the number of EC votes in another groups of states? That is your assumption. I said the others states can be ignored. I didn’t assign an EC vote equivalency to them.
 
You could make the argument that Trump has a higher chance of winning AZ, NV, and PA than GA. Under that scenario, Trump gets 271 EV’s.
 
What Sangre says, I am in favor of the GOOD waitress etc making what they are worth but more importantly I am totally against the govt created IRS so anyone (and anyway) one can reduce or even eliminate one’s taxes (but most importantly mine) I’m in favor. Uh, no I’m not in a tipping job. I’m with HDH, among the retired.
 
Trump also floated doing away with the income tax and replacing it with tariffs.

I am all for that. Tariffs are a kind of sales tax. You choose to buy a product and pay a tax on it. No one forces you to buy it, so it is as voluntary as you get and still have a tax. Income tax is % slavery and property tax is % feudalism.
 
Monahorns said:
Trump also floated doing away with the income tax and replacing it with tariffs.

I am all for that. Tariffs are a kind of sales tax. You choose to buy a product and pay a tax on it. No one forces you to buy it, so it is as voluntary as you get and still have a tax. Income tax is % slavery and property tax is % feudalism.
Click to expand...
Actually it makes the $500 foreign item cost $1,000. Good luck buying a Toyota or Honda product. It will allow US manufacturers of competing products to jack up their prices to under the price of the foreign product but lower.
I can still spell inflation and more cruddy merchandise

like most of Bone Spurs’ ideas, this one is stupid

wish the Dems would run somebody with a brain
 
huisache said:
Actually it makes the $500 foreign item cost $1,000. Good luck buying a Toyota or Honda product. It will allow US manufacturers of competing products to jack up their prices to under the price of the foreign product but lower.
I can still spell inflation and more cruddy merchandise

like most of Bone Spurs’ ideas, this one is stupid

wish the Dems would run somebody with a brain
Click to expand...


You are right and you are wrong. It does make imported goods more expensive. I agree, and that is a bad thing. But if you remove the income tax and corporate taxes then the actual prices aren't going to move all that much.

I am not a protectionist and this is who Trump is trying to appeal to with this idea. Even though I am not a protectionist, I understand how the government has incentivized moving manufacturing out of the US for the last 30 years at least. A tariff reverses those incentives which is a good factor. Another positive factor is that it allows for domestic production in the US in times of war or power politics.

What causes inflation is actually government policy. Government spending from debt directly causes inflation. When you see government spending increasing year over year you are seeing the direct cause of inflation. When you see the total debt increase you are seeing the direct cause of inflation. Cut spending, reduce/eliminate welfare, close bases, and bring the military home to defend the border, abolish whole departments, fire half of the managerial state, end all foreign aid, end all NGO funding, and you will see prices come down.

Javier Millei is doing this in Argentina and he has killed inflation in less than a year from a level that was way above the US.

Do those things then end the Fed and allow a free banking market and prices will be even better.
 
huisache said:
Actually it makes the $500 foreign item cost $1,000. Good luck buying a Toyota or Honda product. It will allow US manufacturers of competing products to jack up their prices to under the price of the foreign product but lower.
I can still spell inflation and more cruddy merchandise

like most of Bone Spurs’ ideas, this one is stupid

wish the Dems would run somebody with a brain
Click to expand...
Have you seen the list of the top ten made in American cars? Honda has most of the spots. In fact Honda + Toyota has 7 of the top 12 spots.

https://www.cars.com/articles/2023-...ndex-which-cars-are-the-most-american-467465/
 
huisache said:
Actually it makes the $500 foreign item cost $1,000. Good luck buying a Toyota or Honda product. It will allow US manufacturers of competing products to jack up their prices to under the price of the foreign product but lower.
I can still spell inflation and more cruddy merchandise

like most of Bone Spurs’ ideas, this one is stupid

wish the Dems would run somebody with a brain
Click to expand...
14 out of top 35 are Honda or Toyota.
 
huisache said:
Actually it makes the $500 foreign item cost $1,000. Good luck buying a Toyota or Honda product. It will allow US manufacturers of competing products to jack up their prices to under the price of the foreign product but lower.
I can still spell inflation and more cruddy merchandise

like most of Bone Spurs’ ideas, this one is stupid

wish the Dems would run somebody with a brain
Click to expand...
The appearance of multiple Hondas won’t come as a surprise to followers of the index. The automaker continues to feature prominently thanks to the Odyssey, Passport, Pilot and Ridgeline — all of which are built in Alabama. Its Ohio plants are well represented in the top 15 by the Acura MDX, RDX and TLX, as well as by the Honda Accord. It’s also worth once again noting the Passport’s overall U.S. and Canadian parts content of 75% — a requirement of the original AMI (American Made Index) and a bar many models once met. It’s a struggle for most vehicles in 2023 to hit even 60%.
 
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You can read the details of the ranking in the link provided above:


Cars.com’s American-Made Index ranks vehicles built and bought in the U.S. for the 2023 model year. We consider five major factors:

  • Location(s) of final assembly
  • Percentage of U.S. and Canadian parts
  • Countries of origin for all available engines
  • Countries of origin for all available transmissions
  • U.S. manufacturing workforce
 
mchammer, what you are seeing there is that heavy equipment is still made in the US because it takes so much money to ship them overseas. Many of the parts or subassemblies are made overseas though, so not all of the manufacturing levels are done in the US.

Another product that never left the US is transformers because they are super heavy. Motors too, but to a lesser extent.
 
huisache said:
Actually it makes the $500 foreign item cost $1,000. Good luck buying a Toyota or Honda product. It will allow US manufacturers of competing products to jack up their prices to under the price of the foreign product but lower.
I can still spell inflation and more cruddy merchandise

like most of Bone Spurs’ ideas, this one is stupid

wish the Dems would run somebody with a brain
Click to expand...
You realize that US has had tariffs on foreign trucks since 1964? 25%. See link:

Chicken tax - Wikipedia
 
huisache said:
Actually it makes the $500 foreign item cost $1,000. Good luck buying a Toyota or Honda product. It will allow US manufacturers of competing products to jack up their prices to under the price of the foreign product but lower.
I can still spell inflation and more cruddy merchandise

like most of Bone Spurs’ ideas, this one is stupid

wish the Dems would run somebody with a brain
Click to expand...
Economists prefer consumption taxes over income taxes. It’s not a stupid idea.
 
mchammer said:
Economists prefer consumption taxes over income taxes. It’s not a stupid idea.
Click to expand...

mchammer, it is also the only kind of tax that was legal at the start of our country. Tariff, duties, and excise taxes were all that was allowed. We had to have a Constitutional amendment to allow income tax. Everyone who voted it in should be considered traitors and villains.
 
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