2024 GOP Primary
- Thread starter Mr. Deez
- Start date
No faith required. Trump is tied in VA head to head with Biden and -1 in 5-way.
Bump. Latest polls show Trump up +3 in PA, more than MI and WI. I get it - hard to believe.
Not saying you’re wrong yet but this has not surfaced to date in the polling data.
We're five months out, and the conviction just happened. The campaign hasn't even really started.
The polls I have seen since verdict showed most people didn't care. The Demz core weren't going to change . The Karens probably are happy. The Repub Core was not going to change.
The interesting thing I have seen in a few polls is Blacks and Hispanics who were already leaning Trump due to economics are saying Trump got screwed just like they think many Blacks and Hispanics get screwed by justice system.
The interesting thing I have seen in a few polls is Blacks and Hispanics who were already leaning Trump due to economics are saying Trump got screwed just like they think many Blacks and Hispanics get screwed by justice system.
Dems have a turnout issue. They have a core leftist voter bloc. But as noted above, if they venture to the hoods and barrios for detached voters, you are likely getting a Trump vote. They are screwed.
If I understand your post, you are assuming that the people who were backing other R candidates will automatically switch to Trump.
I may have misinterpreted it as I am totally doped up on allergy meds, (that aren't working by the way)
In my opinion, I know there are some Rs that absolutely will never cast a vote for him, so I don't think we can assume he is up by 4.
He needs a dynamic VP pick to maybe change their mind.
This is why I desperately wanted Nikki Hayley as a VP, as she had quite a following. I think people could see Hayley as a viable candidate for President the next term, and, she checks many boxes.
Lets face it, I don't think Doug Burgum, Tim Scott, Ben Carson, Byron Donalds are going to suddenly add a dash of excitement to the Trump ticket. I'll bet most people have never heard of Burgum or Donalds unless they are way into politics.
Donalds may be good in the future, but he is too inexperienced in my humble opinion. Plus, he and Rubio live in Florida, and the President and VP nom can't live in the same state, if I'm reading the rules correctly. Please feel free to correct me!
Tim Scott seems like a nice guy, but he presents as a "yes, boss" kind of man to me. He did very poorly running for President.
Ben Carson is smart but very boring to listen to. He adds nothing to the ticket.
Marco Rubio, maybe, but he lost Florida to Trump if I recall. I don't know much about J.D. Vance, and I like Tom Cotton but he may have been too outspoken on divisive issues. And, he's from Arkansas.
Only one woman? Is there anyone from a critical swing state?
I think he needs to pick a POC, first of all, and I would like it to be a woman. Elise Stefanik won't win NY, and we can't risk losing a seat to a Dem.
This is a wild thought, but what about Tulsi Gabbard? She's ethnic, a veteran, and she makes very salient points on Fox when I see her. I know she has a sketchy past as far as support, I think she was for Bernie? But, I think they might make a good pair. Maybe, lol. It's just so critical this election to get a great VP, who may have to take over during the term.
I just want it to all be over. And I can't absolutely believe that this election is even close with how many people dislike Biden and Harris.
My biggest fear is they pull a switcheroo at the convention, and Michelle Obama walks out.
I may have misinterpreted it as I am totally doped up on allergy meds, (that aren't working by the way)
In my opinion, I know there are some Rs that absolutely will never cast a vote for him, so I don't think we can assume he is up by 4.
He needs a dynamic VP pick to maybe change their mind.
This is why I desperately wanted Nikki Hayley as a VP, as she had quite a following. I think people could see Hayley as a viable candidate for President the next term, and, she checks many boxes.
Lets face it, I don't think Doug Burgum, Tim Scott, Ben Carson, Byron Donalds are going to suddenly add a dash of excitement to the Trump ticket. I'll bet most people have never heard of Burgum or Donalds unless they are way into politics.
Donalds may be good in the future, but he is too inexperienced in my humble opinion. Plus, he and Rubio live in Florida, and the President and VP nom can't live in the same state, if I'm reading the rules correctly. Please feel free to correct me!
Tim Scott seems like a nice guy, but he presents as a "yes, boss" kind of man to me. He did very poorly running for President.
Ben Carson is smart but very boring to listen to. He adds nothing to the ticket.
Marco Rubio, maybe, but he lost Florida to Trump if I recall. I don't know much about J.D. Vance, and I like Tom Cotton but he may have been too outspoken on divisive issues. And, he's from Arkansas.
Only one woman? Is there anyone from a critical swing state?
I think he needs to pick a POC, first of all, and I would like it to be a woman. Elise Stefanik won't win NY, and we can't risk losing a seat to a Dem.
This is a wild thought, but what about Tulsi Gabbard? She's ethnic, a veteran, and she makes very salient points on Fox when I see her. I know she has a sketchy past as far as support, I think she was for Bernie? But, I think they might make a good pair. Maybe, lol. It's just so critical this election to get a great VP, who may have to take over during the term.
I just want it to all be over. And I can't absolutely believe that this election is even close with how many people dislike Biden and Harris.
My biggest fear is they pull a switcheroo at the convention, and Michelle Obama walks out.
Trump is now back over 50% in the betting odds. The felony conviction impact is over. If the morons try to jail him, it’s going to be a 40 state victory. Everyone sees through the ********. It doesn’t take an IQ over 100 to see what is going on. This is independent of IQ. Dems ****** up. I said this many many times: Dems should have elected Trump in 2020. By 2022, he would have been a lame duck. Now Trump is going to **** them raw.
Not good enough. Trump has to win PA, Ohio and at least MI or WI and keep al of the basic red states. It would be nice if the good folks in NV, AZ, and CO would wake up.
The good folks in NV, AZ, CO are awake. There's just not enough of them.
Disagree - apparently you haven’t read my recent posts:
1. Ohio is a lock, even more so than Florida.
2. NC is a lock.
3. CO is irrelevant - it’s a Biden lock.
4. Trump has lead in every poll for GA, AZ, and NV except one. It’s like 50 polls for Trump and 1 poll for Biden (combined).
5. Trump doesn’t have to win AZ, NV, MI, or WI if he wins GA and PA.
6. If Trump wins GA and AZ (not NV), he only needs to win one of PA, MI, or WI.
7. If Trump wins GA, AZ, and VA, then he can avoid NV, PA, MI, and WI.
8. If Trump wins GA, AZ, NV, and the all of the CD’s of Nebraska, he doesn’t need to win MI, WI, or PA to get 269 EV’s and thus a tie.
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What you posted above hasn’t been applicable since Bush 2004 or Obama 2008 election. There has been 2 census’ since then (2010 and 2020) that have changed the map.
After the 2030 census, for the 2032 election, the republican candidate only has to win NC, GA, AZ, and NV to win the presidency outright, meaning the following states can be ignored: PA, MI, WI, MN, VA, NH, CO. This is the result of 20 years of migration.
The following states used to be battlegrounds: FL, NC, OH, IA. They are now solid red states. Granted the following states used to be battlegrounds too, but now solid for Dems: CO, VA (but VA is apparently back to toss up status for this election).
What has been unexpected is that Hispanics in FL, AZ, NV (and Texas) are not voting Dem as much as the Dems hoped. This is what the Dems did to themselves. The problem for them is that they are in a hole and they can’t get out of it because it would piss off a lot of affluent white liberals and the Hamas folks. So, they keep digging. Probably at some time before the 2032 election (after losing 2024 and 2028) the Dems will make major changes because their current path is only going to get worse starting in 2032.
The following states used to be battlegrounds: FL, NC, OH, IA. They are now solid red states. Granted the following states used to be battlegrounds too, but now solid for Dems: CO, VA (but VA is apparently back to toss up status for this election).
What has been unexpected is that Hispanics in FL, AZ, NV (and Texas) are not voting Dem as much as the Dems hoped. This is what the Dems did to themselves. The problem for them is that they are in a hole and they can’t get out of it because it would piss off a lot of affluent white liberals and the Hamas folks. So, they keep digging. Probably at some time before the 2032 election (after losing 2024 and 2028) the Dems will make major changes because their current path is only going to get worse starting in 2032.
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Interesting this AARP poll today says AZ women will be the ones that tip the scale. Maybe so, but not as much as all the fat cows in OH.
New AARP Arizona Poll: Voters 50+, Especially Women, Could Tip the Scales in 2024
I wouldn't. They just get much, much more support, cover, and amplification from the media, so it makes it seem like they are better.
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