2024 GOP Primary

mchammer said:
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I don't know who the Smithley character is, but obviously either him or Poso is nowhere close to reality in their numbers. They both certainly can't be right. Yes, I hope it's Poso, but if the dims have almost a 2:1 lead and 30% of their base has yet to vote and 35% of Republicans have yet to vote then they will be significantly ahead when all votes are cast. That's, course, the parties mostly vote for their candidate and I's are split close to 50:50 and there's no guarantees on that.

But I'll also say maybe this Smithley character is a moron and I never should have posted it, just found it elsewhere and it scared me. I'm just a "don't count your chickens until they hatch" type person and all this, "it's over", "it's in the bag" talk reminds me of, "they're terrible, we should win convincingly".
 
Run Pincher said:
I don't know who the Smithley character is, but obviously either him or Poso is nowhere close to reality in their numbers. They both certainly can't be right. Yes, I hope it's Poso, but if the dims have almost a 2:1 lead and 30% of their base has yet to vote and 35% of Republicans have yet to vote then they will be significantly ahead when all votes are cast. That's, course, the parties mostly vote for their candidate and I's are split close to 50:50 and there's no guarantees on that.

But I'll also say maybe this Smithley character is a moron and I never should have posted it, just found it elsewhere and it scared me. I'm just a "don't count your chickens until they hatch" type person and all this, "it's over", "it's in the bag" talk reminds me of, "they're terrible, we should win convincingly".
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Dems have more registered voters than GOP in PA so no matter how look at the early data, it requires Dems to vote for Trump for Trump to win. This was true before any ballot was cast. To this point, I have posted that GOP has gained 400k more registered voters relative to Dem voters since 2020. The vote difference in 2020 was 80k. The dem voter registration advantage was much greater in 2016 when Trump won the state. So the assumption for PA has always been that yes Dem registered voters vote for Trump.

From a prior twitter post: So, we're entering this election with just a 281K registration deficit to the Dems in PA. In 2020, it was 685K, a gain of 404K for the Republicans since then.
 
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Run Pincher said:
I don't know who the Smithley character is, but obviously either him or Poso is nowhere close to reality in their numbers. They both certainly can't be right. Yes, I hope it's Poso, but if the dims have almost a 2:1 lead and 30% of their base has yet to vote and 35% of Republicans have yet to vote then they will be significantly ahead when all votes are cast. That's, course, the parties mostly vote for their candidate and I's are split close to 50:50 and there's no guarantees on that.

But I'll also say maybe this Smithley character is a moron and I never should have posted it, just found it elsewhere and it scared me. I'm just a "don't count your chickens until they hatch" type person and all this, "it's over", "it's in the bag" talk reminds me of, "they're terrible, we should win convincingly".
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You assume turnout is the same between Dems and GOP. As shown in the mail-in ballots data plus EV data from other states, Dem turnout appears to be 5-10% pts lower than GOP.
 
If you look at the polling data back in April, it said Trump would win all the battleground states except maybe MN. After 6 months of campaigning, we are back to square one. This has always been a Trump race to lose, but he eliminated that possibility when he hired the best campaign folks in the business.
 
mchammer said:
If you look at the polling data back in April, it said Trump would win all the battleground states except maybe MN. After 6 months of campaigning, we are back to square one. This has always been a Trump race to lose, but he eliminated that possibility when he hired the best campaign folks in the business.
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No, he put that possibility back on the table when he let Tony Hinchcliffe speak at his MSG rally.

As many of us have stated here, Kamala can't win, but Trump can lose. It reminds me of the Charlie "find a way to lose" Strong teams that found a way to lose no matter how strong the odds are in your favor.
 
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