2024 GOP Primary

Dem advantage in PA mail-in ballot returns probably hit a high spot over the weekend. Starting today, it will dwindle as GOP requested ballots and returned ballots start to peak. In an odd twist because GOP has been requesting more ballots than Dems in the last 1-2 weeks, the ballots received after Election Day (but postmarked on or before ED) will likely favor GOP this year.
 
This is interesting. In polling of NC for example where recent polls showed the race tied or Trump +1% pt, the pollster asks if they have early voted. The result is slightly Dem advantaged when we actually know what the actual data is regarding DEM/GOP/IND split in NC (it’s GOP +1% pt). However the pollster doesn’t correct the bias. Just further evidence the polls skew left.
 
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