2023 Season

Sorry, even with the replacements we have to make there are 25 college baseball teams expected to be better than Texas?? Ugh, I hope that doesn't hold.
 
Chop said:
If Shaw is as good as you think he is, that would be a big bonus for our pitching staff.

Broken record time: go ahead and move Max Grubbs up to the top of our list of relievers, even ahead of Harrison. He's that good. Pierce described Grubbs as the best pitcher on the team for the month of Fall Ball--newcomers or veterans.

Stuart might be a guy who challenges for a starting role. Or a 1st or 2nd guy out of the pen in a tight game. San Jac guy. Ditto for Tole, except the San Jac part.

Lummus will probably throw a lot of 1-2 innings outings and throw them really well.
Click to expand...

As for Shaw, it’s just a guess, I’m sure it’s going to be wrong, I merely looked at his production at Rice and other metrics and creating my own projection. The relievers list wasn’t in order of best down to least, just a list of guys I think will be key relievers. Sounds like Grubbs may battle for the rotation. Exciting times, we’re going to learn a lot opening weekend.
 
STHAustin said:
Sorry, even with the replacements we have to make there are 25 college baseball teams expected to be better than Texas?? Ugh, I hope that doesn't hold.
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I think miss st was unranked two years ago and won it, coastal Carolina too?? Don’t fret the rankings in baseball, it’s extremely difficult to correctly nail this list preseason and Texas is a top 25 team, just gonna have to play their way in. They lost a lot but this team still has a lot of talent, late in the season, no one is going to want to match up with them in the playoffs
 
Pierce gives just a few tidbits from this short radio interview.

Some takeaways:

- Fall Ball was "outstanding"
- The work ethic is at a very high level
- Campbell, Daly, and Kennedy are team leaders
- The Pitchers are now doing well at mentally/emotionally keeping on "an even keel" (sounds like he's seeing an improved mental aspect of the game on the mound...)

https://hornfm.com/2022/11/04/texas-baseball-hc-david-pierce-joins-be-to-preview-the-season/
 
Chop said:
Pierce gives just a few tidbits from this short radio interview.

Some takeaways:

- Fall Ball was "outstanding"
- The work ethic is at a very high level
- Campbell, Daly, and Kennedy are team leaders
- The Pitchers are now doing well at mentally/emotionally keeping on "an even keel" (sounds like he's seeing an improved mental aspect of the game on the mound...)

https://hornfm.com/2022/11/04/texas-baseball-hc-david-pierce-joins-be-to-preview-the-season/
Click to expand...
Good news. Another month till baseball, so everyone needs to cool their heels.
 
Chop said:
Yep. Looks like he's not there anymore. He was there in the Fall. I wonder what happened. Hopefully he's ok. He's got big time talent. Hate to see it go to waste.

(if it turns out he's portaling to LSU, I'm throwing my computer out the window...)
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Here's a non-UT source still showing Porchas on our team as of 7 days ago...
(but what do they know?)

craigschinmusic.com

Maybe an insider can weigh in, even if only cryptically...

Weird. Could be anything, who knows: just a clerical error, homesick, grades, family sickness, conflict with coaches or players, hates Whataburger and prefers In-N-Out, medical stuff, missing a girlfriend, threw his arm out, going pro, going to play in a foreign league, got in trouble with the law or team rules???

He has talent. Lots of teams wanted the guy.
 
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aUTfan said:
As for Shaw, it’s just a guess, I’m sure it’s going to be wrong, I merely looked at his production at Rice and other metrics and creating my own projection. The relievers list wasn’t in order of best down to least, just a list of guys I think will be key relievers. Sounds like Grubbs may battle for the rotation. Exciting times, we’re going to learn a lot opening weekend.
Click to expand...
Back to Shaw: I see a 1.38 WHIP at Rice in relief last year---> Rice Owls
That's pretty good, although it's against Rice's competition. And he had a 6.57 ERA at Rice per the Rice stats linked above, which is not good at all. (Although the TexasSports website shows him at a 4.50 ERA last year at Rice...? David Shaw - Baseball - University of Texas Athletics) I haven't seen any film of him, and he pitched for one inning against us (actually a part of an inning) in which he gave up 3 walks and 1 hit. Sounds like a promising young arm. I'm thinking Shaw's role is in middle relief for 2023...?

But...you're definitely not the only one saying that Shaw is going to be really good. So there's something about this prospect that makes plenty of people think he'll earn a starting position--and he very well might. His stuff must be pretty nasty. And there's that difficult-to-hit angle of a long-armed tall guy throwing off the mound.

For now, I'd put my bets on 4 of the following as our most likely starters (3 weekend + 1 weekday): Gordon, Hurley, Morehouse, LBJ, DuPlantier, Stuart. (of course if and when Witt's back he catapults to #1)

:beertoast:
 
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Semi-objective Big 12 Preview:

https://www.collegebaseball.info/post/2023-big-12-season-preview-transfers-bolster-contenders

:bevo::bevo::bevo::bevo::bevo:

"The wild card: No. 18 Texas

The Longhorns represented the Big 12 in last year’s College World Series, finishing seventh in Omaha, but heading into 2023, this is a very different squad. A very young squad. So in many respects, Texas will be somewhat of a wild card in the months to follow.

For starters, just two starting position players are back, and only three key pitchers have returned. Outfielders Eric Kennedy and Dylan Campbell along with shortstop Mitchell Daly appear at this time to be the core returners in the lineup, and each of those three made tremendous strides last season, all of whom hit above .265 with at least 29 RBIs in 2022. On the pitching staff, Lucas Gordon might be the best arm in the Longhorns’ rotation, having gone 7-2 with a 3.05 ERA a year ago. [Chop's comment: Geno continues to get no respect. Not only was he our best starting pitcher last year, he was clearly the best starting pitcher in the Big 12 last year--and it wasn't even close. No starting pitcher in the conference had an ERA even approaching Gordon's. Totally underappreciated.]

Gordon’s presence on this pitching staff will be especially key with All-Big 12 starters Pete Hansen and Tristan Stevens having left for the pro ranks following last year’s run to Omaha. Not only are Hansen and Stevens gone, but so is 2022 Golden Spikes Award Winner Ivan Melendez, who dominated at the plate with 32 home runs. Infielder Murphy Stehly, catcher Silas Ardoin, shortstop Trey Faltine, and third baseman Skyler Messinger have also departed, which will mean a good portion of Texas’ success will be dependent on the newcomers head coach David Pierce has brought in.

A few names to keep an eye on are outfielder Porter Brown (TCU transfer), catcher Garrett Guilmette (USC transfer), right-hander Charlie Hurley (USC transfer), reliever Heston Tole (Arkansas transfer).

Key non-conference matchup: vs LSU (Feb. 28): The nation’s No. 1 ranked team comes to Austin within the first month of the season, and Texas has an opportunity right out of the gate to make a statement. Even with the key losses from last year’s team, the Longhorns have plenty of firepower on the roster, and with a good performance against LSU’s pitching staff, could come away with a major non-conference victory."
 
:tech:

Jack Washburn, who threw 40.1 innings with a 3.35 ERA for Ole Miss has transferred into the program. :fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire:

Southpaw Mason Molina posted a 3.90 ERA last season and should be a key part of the regular rotation in 2023.

I think we're better, but they'll challenge for the conference crown.
 
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:tcu:

Now everybody's going all goo-goo over Preseason Prospect All-American Brayden Taylor, who hit .314 with 50 RBIs.

We had Melendez batting 0.400
Murph batting 0.380
and Messinger batting 0.360

Some of our players this year who will likely bat over 0.314 and with over 50 RBIs: Campbell, Kennedy, and keep an eye on O'Dowd and others. We may or may not win the conference, but we have ballplayers as good as, or better, than some on other teams who are getting a lot of hype.
 
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:tcu:

The portal was kind to the Frogs, although folks are making way too big of a deal about incoming transfer pitcher Ryan Vanderhei...

"TCU’s incoming transfers may end up being the stars of the show. Tre Richardson was a first-team All-Big 12 selection as Baylor’s starting shortstop, and opted to remain within the Big 12 as he journeyed to his next destination. He has potential for a breakout campaign as does West Virginia transfer Austin Davis, another first-team All-Big 12 honoree in the outfield. And to cap off the list of inter-conference transfer imports, Ryan Vanderhei, Kansas’ Friday night starter, transferred south from the Sunflower state.* Those three transfers bring quality depth, not to mention tremendous talent, to Fort Worth."

* Ryan Vanderhei had a 2022 ERA of 6.46. Count me as unimpressed. We would NOT portal in a starting pitcher from KU with a 6.46 ERA. NOPE.

2022 Kansas Baseball Stats
 
Chop said:
Back to Shaw: I see a 1.38 WHIP at Rice in relief last year---> Rice Owls
That's pretty good, although it's against Rice's competition. And he had a 6.57 ERA at Rice per the Rice stats linked above, which is not good at all. (Although the TexasSports website shows him at a 4.50 ERA last year at Rice...? David Shaw - Baseball - University of Texas Athletics) I haven't seen any film of him, and he pitched for one inning against us (actually a part of an inning) in which he gave up 3 walks and 1 hit. Sounds like a promising young arm. I'm thinking Shaw's role is in middle relief for 2023...?

But...you're definitely not the only one saying that Shaw is going to be really good. So there's something about this prospect that makes plenty of people think he'll earn a starting position--and he very well might. His stuff must be pretty nasty. And there's that difficult-to-hit angle of a long-armed tall guy throwing off the mound.

For now, I'd put my bets on 4 of the following as our most likely starters (3 weekend + 1 weekday): Gordon, Hurley, Morehouse, LBJ, DuPlantier, Stuart. (of course if and when Witt's back he catapults to #1)

:beertoast:
Click to expand...

I was shooting spit wads, your starting list looks good and i wouldn't bet against it.
 
If Shaw turns out to be good, that would be awesome.

Pierce and Woodrow seem to like really tall pitchers.
 
Chop said:
:tech:

Jack Washburn, who threw 40.1 innings with a 3.35 ERA for Ole Miss has transferred into the program. :fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire::fire:

Southpaw Mason Molina posted a 3.90 ERA last season and should be a key part of the regular rotation in 2023.

I think we're better, but they'll challenge for the conference crown.
Click to expand...
I may have to re-assess my thoughts about the Big 12 this year. It appears that Tech will have better pitching than I had thought...

Everybody who writes internet blogs about the stuff seems to be sky high on TCU. I'm just not seeing it. Ryan Vanderhei...? He's ok but we've got 3 starting pitchers better than him. This Kansas transfer with a 6.46 ERA isn't going to carry the Frogs on his back. Cam Brown is a lot better with an ERA in the mid 4s. A solid college pitcher who should (at this point) be considered as a guy vying for 2nd team or Hon Mention all-conference, not as the 2nd coming of Cy Young. He roughly compares to Charlie Hurley--our #2 or #3 starter. Then there's Brayden Taylor, who hit .314 with 50 RBIs--that's an All-Conference 2nd team player in my book, NOT an All-American. Taylor walks a lot, so his OB% is high, but we've got guys that do that as well. We'll have at least 2-3 guys who match or better his offensive performance.

Frankly, the Frogs are our conference foe that I like the most (in all sports). And (in my experience) they have the most gracious and decent-human-being fan base of any team that we play regularly. (the female component of their fan base also tends to be very easy on the eyes...) I generally hope they win when they're not playing us. I just don't agree with all this 2023 TCU baseball hype that is flooding the internet. They're good, but not THAT good.

I'm thinking (objectively): put OSU as the projected #1 for now, Tech and us vying for #2 (for now), then OU or TCU... Ultimately, I think we'll win it all (and I mean IT ALL...), but for preseason projections, OSU is the fairly clear safe bet in this conference.

:osu:
:ut: :tech:
:ou: :tcu:
 
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Chop said:
I may have to re-assess my thoughts about the Big 12 this year. It appears that Tech will have better pitching than I had thought...

Everybody who writes internet blogs about the stuff seems to be sky high on TCU. I'm just not seeing it. Ryan Vanderhei...? He's ok but we've got 3 starting pitchers better than him. This Kansas transfer with a 6.46 ERA isn't going to carry the Frogs on his back. Cam Brown is a lot better with an ERA in the mid 4s. A solid college pitcher who should (at this point) be considered as a guy vying for 2nd team or Hon Mention all-conference, not as the 2nd coming of Cy Young. He roughly compares to Charlie Hurley--our #2 or #3 starter. Then there's Brayden Taylor, who hit .314 with 50 RBIs--that's an All-Conference 2nd team player in my book, NOT an All-American. We'll have at least 2-3 guys who match or better his offensive performance.

Frankly, the Frogs are our conference foe that I like the most (in all sports). And (in my experience) they have the most gracious and decent-human-being fan base of any team that we play regularly. (the female component of their fan base also tends to be very easy on the eyes...) I generally hope they win when they're not playing us. I just don't agree with all this 2023 TCU baseball hype that is flooding the internet. They're good, but not THAT good.

I'm thinking (objectively): put OSU as the projected #1 for now, Tech and us vying for #2 (for now), then OU or TCU... Ultimately, I think we'll win it all (and I mean IT ALL...), but for preseason projections, OSU is the fairly clear safe bet in this conference.

:osu:
:ut: :tech:
:ou: :tcu:
Click to expand...

For now, I would put OU last only because they lost ALOT of pitching with us coming in just ahead of them but i have a ton of respect for Skip Johnson and expect they will be competitive. I have no idea how the rest should go, TCU and Tech brought in some pretty good talent, OSU is always tough but can never seem to get over the hump when the pressure is on.

Texas has the talent to go a long way, I'm not going to expect a big XII title as I think its going to take a minute to develop the depth at pitching but I do expect to make it to a super regional and as we enter the playoffs, we begin to solidify our identity as always with great pitching, defense and a surprisingly good batting lineup. Fans are going to have to be patient with the pitching staff, there will be hiccups. However, No one will want to see us in their bracket no matter what our record looks like, i don't care if its LSU, Tennessee, Miss St. etc.....bring it on! :hookem:
 
aUTfan said:
For now, I would put OU last only because they lost ALOT of pitching with us coming in just ahead of them but i have a ton of respect for Skip Johnson and expect they will be competitive. I have no idea how the rest should go, TCU and Tech brought in some pretty good talent, OSU is always tough but can never seem to get over the hump when the pressure is on.

Texas has the talent to go a long way, I'm not going to expect a big XII title as I think its going to take a minute to develop the depth at pitching but I do expect to make it to a super regional and as we enter the playoffs, we begin to solidify our identity as always with great pitching, defense and a surprisingly good batting lineup. Fans are going to have to be patient with the pitching staff, there will be hiccups. However, No one will want to see us in their bracket no matter what our record looks like, i don't care if its LSU, Tennessee, Miss St. etc.....bring it on! :hookem:
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Sounds about right. Plus, around playoff time is when Witt may return.
 
Pre-Season All Big 12 1st Team is out:

Here’s a look at the entire Preseason All-Big 12 team, courtesy of the Big 12 Conference.

Preseason All-Big 12 Team
C- Hudson White, Texas Tech
IF- Nick Goodwin, Kansas State*
IF- Jackson Nicklaus, Oklahoma
IF- Marcus Brown, Oklahoma State
IF- Roc Riggio, Oklahoma State
IF- Brayden Taylor, TCU*
OF- John Spikerman, Oklahoma
OF- Austin Davis, TCU
OF- Elijah Nunez, TCU
DH- Ty Coleman, Texas Tech
UT- Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State*
SP- Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State*
SP- Lucas Gordon, Texas
SP- Tanner Witt, Texas
SP- Mason Molina, Texas Tech
RP- Luke Savage, TCU
RP- Garrett Wright, TCU
*- Unanimous selection

Preseason Player of the Year
Brayden Taylor, TCU

Preseason Pitcher of the Year
Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State

Preseason Newcomer of the Year
Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State

Preseason Freshman of the Year
Anthony Silva, TCU


This SP- Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State must be really, really good...
 
Comparison of Pre-Season All Big 12 1st Team Starting Pitchers.
(I'm excluding Witt since he's not back yet)

Juaron Watts-Brown, Oklahoma State
3.68 ERA
4-4
111 Strikeouts
29 Walks
(Playing in the Big-West Conference)


Lucas Gordon, Texas
3.05 ERA
7-2
77 Strikeouts
26 Walks


Mason Molina, Texas Tech
3.90 ERA
2-5
71 Strikeouts
21 Walks





Now, throwing in another pitcher from our likely starting rotation (who was not named in this pre-season list):

Chuck Hurley, Texas
4.19 ERA
6-2
45 Strikeouts
32 Walks
(Playing in the Pac-12)



I'd say Gordon is the pick of the litter. Watts-Brown looks very good, and throws a lot of strikeouts, but it is unclear how well his Big West numbers will transfer to the Big-12. Chuck Hurley looks like he should be an All-Big 12 2nd team starting pitcher going into the season. Something else about Hurley, his stats are badly skewed down by a disastrous 3.1 inning outing vs. Stanford to end the year where Stanford just shelled him. Prior to that last game, Hurley's season ERA was sitting at 3.36 (better than any of the pre-season all-Big 12 1st team starters except for Gordon).

Bottom line--our starting pitching is actually looking pretty good. It all comes down to Zane Morehouse--no pressure Zane...
 
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Another online mag makes some predictions. Take this one with a shaker of salt--they think we lost Zane Morehouse. Also, a lot of people are talking as if Witt will be pitching right off the bat. What I've seen and read indicates Witt will more likely start pitching again for us sometime well into the season, like April or May...?

"Lucas Gordan was tabbed by the Big 12's coaches after going 7-2 last season, including a 3.05 ERA and 77 strikeouts, while opponents hit just .224 off him in over 85 innings of work.

That's not bad for a guy who wasn't a weekend pitcher until a good chunk of the season had passed.

"Sophomore Luke Harrison is poised for a bigger role this season, after posting a 3.06 ERA and a pair of saves over 32 appearances last year, 31 of which were in relief.

Another sophomore, Lebarron Johnson Jr., also thrived in a bullpen role, fanning 21 batters in 17 innings, while posting a 3.18 ERA."

Texas Looks To Carry Momentum From Last Season's Late Surge Into 2023 - FloBaseball
 
I’m curious how this goes though because Witt can’t be expected to go long in a game (mid April) so I wonder if he uses him to close?? Or starts him and builds up his stamina for the playoffs?? (I’m thinking the latter but he’s such a bulldog, would be tempting to put him there if the rotation is good enough by mid April)
 
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