2023 Recruiting - Football

OrangeClad said:
You could say that about just about anything. Obviously, or at least I would hope, Flood sees upside potential and thinks he can turn them into the equivalent of higher ranked, more talented players. That said, you also have to ask yourself what he will be able to turn already higher ranked players like Banks, Campbell and Uz into since they are starting out which a higher floor. One would have to expect better success.

The comparisons of the recruit star rankings, (actually numerical ratings even more) overlaid to the NFL draft is completely undeniable. 5 star and high 4 star players have an exponentially higher occurrence of being drafted, same with being drafted in the first round (= stud producer in college). Mid 4 star drops significantly and low 4 stars have about the same success as a 3 star. I poo pooed the ratings for many years, but I was wrong as the historical data just doesn't lie.
Again, not knocking our guys but pointing out that the supposed Sunday avalanche was really not that unexpected, nor spectacular, I was hoping to leverage the Manning effect to improve the average base incoming talent level, not keep it the same as every other year, while claiming we are doing better because it all came on the same day. But, it's only June. Maybe the next talent download day will be full of a bunch of 5 star guys and all will become right with the world.
Click to expand...
Call me a cynic of the star rating system. It’s a decent guide, but far from exact. But sure, 5*s “should” be better than 4*s, and 4*s “should” do better that 3*s, and so on.

Our last two drafted OL — Cosmi & Williams — were both 3 stars*. We’ve had 5 stars flame out so if I believe in the OL coach (as I do), I am very comfortable deferring to his judgment.

Arguably the best offensive player we have had in the past decade before Bijan and Xavier was D’Onte Foreman, a 2*. So like I said, those rating services are just a guide, and imperfect.

*247 had Williams as a 3*. Rivals, had him as a 4* I believe. But they may have upgraded it after the fact.
 
Pomspoms said:
I have always said getting the highest rated recruits is the biggest reason for Saban's success not so much development cause they all teach about the same even in the lesser colleges.
Click to expand...

Yep. Development of less talented players is usually what happens because there is no way to equal or best the talent level of the competition, otherwise.

The HS recruiting ratings compared to NFL draft says it all. Sure, development helps, but it helps all players of all ratings and when looking at the analytics, stud players in HS are stud players in college an exponentially higher amount of the time.
 
Rule One in football and Formula One - Speed kills.

Find a physics text and read about speed and mass. The faster the speed, the less mass to accomplish the same function.
 
dukesteer said:
Call me a cynic of the star rating system. It’s a decent guide, but far from exact. But sure, 5*s “should” be better than 4*s, and 4*s “should” do better that 3*s, and so on.

Our last two drafted OL — Cosmi & Williams — were both 3 stars*. We’ve had 5 stars flame out so if I believe in the OL coach (as I do), I am very comfortable deferring to his judgment.

Arguably the best offensive player we have had in the past decade before Bijan and Xavier was D’Onte Foreman, a 2*. So like I said, those rating services are just a guide, and imperfect.

*247 had Williams as a 3*. Rivals, had him as a 4* I believe. But they may have upgraded it after the fact.
Click to expand...


No doubt, Duke, nothing is 100%. There are nobodies who turn out fantastic and sure things that flame out. There should always be room for a diamond in the rough.

I used to believe just like you about the star ratings. I mean, how could some dumbass sportswriters who like getting paid to sit around and BS, watch sports, etc. know anything about, or even as much about talent evaluation and upside potential as coaches, and people actually getting paid to develop?

Well, I was wrong and I'm sorry to say, so are you. Looking at two decades of data, the analytics are simply overwhelming when comparing HS star rankings to players drafted to the NFL (who obviously excelled at a very high level). The comparison of ratings to the first round of the NFL is equally confirming. The fact is, stud HS 5 star guys were studs in college most of the time and got drafted to NFL most of the time. I don't remember the exact percentages at the moment and there are several studies with slightly differing numbers, but the last 2 decades of 3 star guys got drafted less than 10% of the time vs a 5 star guy that got drafted like 65% of the time. The 4 stars trickle down according to the 3 rating levels of 4 stars, with the lowest 4 star players being drafted about the same as high 3 stars.

There's just no arguing against the numbers. If you are not recruiting the best you can possibly get, at the highest level and you are depending on development to turn 10% guys into 65% guys, you are just not going to be able to complete day in and day out against those who recruited the more guaranteed players.
 
OrangeClad said:
No doubt, Duke, nothing is 100%. There are nobodies who turn out fantastic and sure things that flame out. There should always be room for a diamond in the rough.

I used to believe just like you about the star ratings. I mean, how could some dumbass sportswriters who like getting paid to sit around and BS, watch sports, etc. know anything about, or even as much about talent evaluation and upside potential as coaches, and people actually getting paid to develop?

Well, I was wrong and I'm sorry to say, so are you. Looking at two decades of data, the analytics are simply overwhelming when comparing HS star rankings to players drafted to the NFL (who obviously excelled at a very high level). The comparison of ratings to the first round of the NFL is equally confirming. The fact is, stud HS 5 star guys were studs in college most of the time and got drafted to NFL most of the time. I don't remember the exact percentages at the moment and there are several studies with slightly differing numbers, but the last 2 decades of 3 star guys got drafted less than 10% of the time vs a 5 star guy that got drafted like 65% of the time. The 4 stars trickle down according to the 3 rating levels of 4 stars, with the lowest 4 star players being drafted about the same as high 3 stars.

There's just no arguing against the numbers. If you are not recruiting the best you can possibly get, at the highest level and you are depending on development to turn 10% guys into 65% guys, you are just not going to be able to complete day in and day out against those who recruited the more guaranteed players.
Click to expand...
Not arguing here, but how many of those 65% guys stayed more than one contract in the NFL? Just because they got drafted doesn't mean they worked out in the NFL. I stopped watching the pros so I really don't care how they do after college except for a few Longhorns who get drafted...so I haven't watched in about 3 years, lol.
 
OC, yours is certainly a very strong argument.

My buddy made an interesting observation in discussing this topic today. He said that if you bring him too many upper 4 & 5 stars for the OL, because they all can’t play at the same time, it might be difficult to keep them from transferring, particularly now with NIL.

On the other hand, if you recruit kids this year that you believe have a high ceiling but must be developed, the likelihood of keeping them is greater and they might be ready to make major contributions in two or three years.

One has to wonder if that is part of Flood’s strategy. He doesn’t need kids to replace Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell or Cam Williams “in 2023.” He needs players to follow them…
 
A source told 247 that DE Colton Vasek of Austin Westlake is down to Oregon and Texas.

They believe Oregon leads, but keep mentioning it'd be tough to see him going that far and ultimately signing there.

 
The guy we REALLY NEED is Anthony Hill.

I was trying to remember the last time we landed an upper tier linebacker. After Derick Johnson, it might have been Jordan Hicks. But it has been a few and far between. If we get Hill — and that would be a real coup — my guess is that the Aggies will throw a fortune at him this fall.
 
dukesteer said:
OC, yours is certainly a very strong argument.

My buddy made an interesting observation in discussing this topic today. He said that if you bring him too many upper 4 & 5 stars for the OL, because they all can’t play at the same time, it might be difficult to keep them from transferring, particularly now with NIL.

On the other hand, if you recruit kids this year that you believe have a high ceiling but must be developed, the likelihood of keeping them is greater and they might be ready to make major contributions in two or three years.

One has to wonder if that is part of Flood’s strategy. He doesn’t need kids to replace Kelvin Banks, Devon Campbell or Cam Williams “in 2023.” He needs players to follow them…
Click to expand...


I doubt very seriously that is a part of the calculations. I'm sure hes grabbing the guys he feels like he can win with and size is pretty hard to coach up last time I checked lol.
I think there are many calculations going into an offer; character, work ethic, potential among others and I'm sure in his mind he thinks that one guy or another has potential to get on the field before another but there are always surprises when they put the pads on and go head to head. Some guys seem to turn something on, others don't.
 
militaryhorn said:
Not arguing here, but how many of those 65% guys stayed more than one contract in the NFL? Just because they got drafted doesn't mean they worked out in the NFL. I stopped watching the pros so I really don't care how they do after college except for a few Longhorns who get drafted...so I haven't watched in about 3 years, lol.
Click to expand...
The NFL? It’s still active. Who knew?
And my reasoning isn’t political, when Free Agency exploded and the onslaught of choreographed Broadway shows after every touchdown made me see that the NFL had passed me up.
 
HalRex said:
Some of the 3 Stars may be 4+ by the end of their senior year too.
Click to expand...
Hal-
I was going to say that. The recruiting services tend to bump a star on a kid when they sign with a premier school.
They just wait until the fall to do it so they look like the kid improved and suddenly earned the next star to look like it was their expert evaluation.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Weekly Prediction Contest

* Predict HORNS-AGGIES *
Sat, Nov 30 • 6:30 PM on ABC

Recent Threads

Prediction Results Threads

2024 Schedules

Back
Top