2022 House and Senate election

Mr. Deez said:
The entire vote-by-mail crap hurt the entire election for the GOP. No question about it.

As for O'Dea, was he a bad candidate, or was he a mediocre candidate running an unwinnable race and throwing a Hail Mary (clashing with Trump) that ended up making it worse? The way I look at that race, he was running in a blue state against a 2-term incumbent who had a strong incumbent governor (the only sane Democrat in the United States on Covid) at the top of the ticket. The race wasn't winnable by anyone. Could it have been closer? Maybe, but probably not dramatically so. (CO has universal mail-in balloting.) FWIW, he did outperform the GOP gubernatorial nominee by a little.

Nevertheless, O'Dea's defeat isn't what made '22 a bad night for the GOP just like Tiffany Smiley's loss in WA didn't make it a bad night. Those were long shots that were only possible under the very, very best of conditions. What made it a bad night was losing the more winnable races in PA, AZ, NV, and especially GA. We should have won every one of those, and we pissed all four of them away. (I'm less pissed about NH, because I don't think that one was winnable unless Sununu ran, and he didn't.)
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It was supposed to be a lean D race that somehow became a 15 points blowout.

We should have won the House races too. That's why I'm not sure the whole "bad" candidate thing is real considering that the more accurate polls had the bad candidates in toss ups and even winning.
 
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Garmel said:
It was supposed to be a lean D race that somehow became a 15 points blowout.

We should have won the House races too. That's why I'm not sure the whole "bad" candidate thing is real considering that the more accurate polls had the bad candidates in toss ups and even winning.
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You don't think the candidates made a difference (for example) in how Brian Kemp did and how Herschel Walker did? Or how Dr. Oz did compared to Mastriano?
 
mchammer said:
So this one is over:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...chin-by-22-points-in-new-poll-on-senate-race/
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I generally like Joe Manchin, but he was stupid. He's from one of the reddest states in the country, so it was never going to be easy to keep his seat. However, he could have if he hadn't screwed up. He signed onto the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to appease Democrats who were pissed at him for helping to kill Build Back Better. I think he thought he could justify it to his constituents by securing reform for the fossil fuel industry. I'm not sure if that would have worked anyway, but for it to even be possible, the Biden Administration would have had to have been honest with him about the implementation. It wasn't, and Manchin was foolish to think it would be.

Opposition to the fossil fuel industry is a major part of the progressive Left's agenda, and Manchin shouldn't have trusted anyone on their side about it. He did, and now it's going to cost him his career.

I understand his worry about how pissed his caucus was at him, but it was an unfixable dilemma. Even if his move gave him brief relief from them one day, the next day they were going to be pissed at him about something else, because ultimately, he's way too conservative for their party on core, fundamental issues.

What he should have done was ditch the IRA and then switched parties when IRA was up for debate. He can't do that now, because he'd lose in a primary for backing the IRA. However, if he had remained solid in opposition to the Administration and his party (which despises him anyway), he could have switched and built a solidly conservative record for the remainder of his term. He'd have a decent shot in '24 of holding the seat as a Republican.
 
Mr. Deez said:
You don't think the candidates made a difference (for example) in how Brian Kemp did and how Herschel Walker did? Or how Dr. Oz did compared to Mastriano?
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Yes, but 15 points for a lean D race?

The House races that we should have won?
 
Mr. Deez said:
I generally like Joe Manchin, but he was stupid. He's from one of the reddest states in the country, so it was never going to be easy to keep his seat. However, he could have if he hadn't screwed up. He signed onto the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to appease Democrats who were pissed at him for helping to kill Build Back Better. I think he thought he could justify it to his constituents by securing reform for the fossil fuel industry. I'm not sure if that would have worked anyway, but for it to even be possible, the Biden Administration would have had to have been honest with him about the implementation. It wasn't, and Manchin was foolish to think it would be.

Opposition to the fossil fuel industry is a major part of the progressive Left's agenda, and Manchin shouldn't have trusted anyone on their side about it. He did, and now it's going to cost him his career.

I understand his worry about how pissed his caucus was at him, but it was an unfixable dilemma. Even if his move gave him brief relief from them one day, the next day they were going to be pissed at him about something else, because ultimately, he's way too conservative for their party on core, fundamental issues.

What he should have done was ditch the IRA and then switched parties when IRA was up for debate. He can't do that now, because he'd lose in a primary for backing the IRA. However, if he had remained solid in opposition to the Administration and his party (which despises him anyway), he could have switched and built a solidly conservative record for the remainder of his term. He'd have a decent shot in '24 of holding the seat as a Republican.
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What he should have done is change his affiliation to Republican after the IRA deal.
 
Garmel said:
Yes, but 15 points for a lean D race?
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I don't think the candidate quality is what cost us that race. I think we had a mediocre candidate who threw a Hail Mary that was intercepted and returned for a touchdown. Ultimately, I think people (including McConnell) overestimated the potential in that race. I suspect the polling understated Democratic turnout and the down ballot impact of the governor's race.

Garmel said:
The House races that we should have won?
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Again, it's I'd have to look at those on a race-by-race basis. I suspect that many of those were mail-in balloting races.
 
Hard to trust this when GOP lost the NV senate race. This time the Dem incumbent is not as strong as the 2022 candidate. Also, GOP did win governor in 2022, so it’s possible. GOP need to campaign in only 3 states in 2024: GA, AZ, and NV. Maybe a little in NC and WI.
 
mchammer said:
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A lot of people (this forum included) have fallen for 'the suburban/ soccer moms being pulled away from conservative candidates' line of thinking. It's all a croc, this write up backs my opinion . Married women have the same values as their husbands and vote accordingly.

The write up backs what I've seen in reality
 
Horn2RunAgain said:
A lot of people (this forum included) have fallen for 'the suburban/ soccer moms being pulled away from conservative candidates' line of thinking. It's all a croc, this write up backs my opinion . Married women have the same values as their husbands and vote accordingly.

The write up backs what I've seen in reality
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Why do you think the regime is pushing LGBT?
 
Horn2RunAgain said:
A lot of people (this forum included) have fallen for 'the suburban/ soccer moms being pulled away from conservative candidates' line of thinking. It's all a croc, this write up backs my opinion . Married women have the same values as their husbands and vote accordingly.

The write up backs what I've seen in reality
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I've lived in the 'burbs for my entire life (minus the college years... Man, those were fun - oops getting off track). I've yet to run into a husband and wife duo that appeared to vote differently. They either came off clearly liberal, clearly conservative, or both not interested in talking politics.
 
Horn2RunAgain said:
A lot of people (this forum included) have fallen for 'the suburban/ soccer moms being pulled away from conservative candidates' line of thinking. It's all a croc, this write up backs my opinion . Married women have the same values as their husbands and vote accordingly.

The write up backs what I've seen in reality
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And yet we're doing much worse in the suburbs. It's also possible that both men and women in the suburbs are voting less Republican than in the past. It's possible that more single women are in the suburbs than before. It's possible that there are more ethic minorities in the suburbs than before. Probably all three are true.
 
Mr. Deez said:
And yet we're doing much worse in the suburbs. It's also possible that both men and women in the suburbs are voting less Republican than in the past. It's possible that more single women are in the suburbs than before. It's possible that there are more ethic minorities in the suburbs than before. Probably all three are true.
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Reality is only 2 are true. Yes, more minorities and more single women have moved to "the suburbs", but this is just a matter of a shell game. Plano isn't nearly as affluent as it was 25 yrs ago (much to my brother's chagrin). There are very nice parts of plano immediately bordered by some in decline.

But the long time suburbanites? Don't see them voting for beto.
 
Horn2RunAgain said:
Reality is only 2 are true. Yes, more minorities and more single women have moved to "the suburbs", but this is just a matter of a shell game. Plano isn't nearly as affluent as it was 25 yrs ago (much to my brother's chagrin). There are very nice parts of plano immediately bordered by some in decline.

But the long time suburbanites? Don't see them voting for beto.
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I'm sure the longtime suburbanites aren't voting for Beto. That's people like my parents who have lived in Plano for 39 years. But what about those who have moved to Plano in the last 10 - 15 or the indoctrinated grandkids of the longtime suburbanites? Are some of them minorities and single chicks? Yes. But are many of them secular families with kids (the types who take their kids to drag queen shows and put "in this house we believe" signs in their yards)? Undoubtedly so. I see tons of that crap every time I visit Plano now and plenty of them in the areas that are still nice.
 
Mr. Deez said:
I'm sure the longtime suburbanites aren't voting for Beto. That's people like my parents who have lived in Plano for 39 years. But what about those who have moved to Plano in the last 10 - 15 or the indoctrinated grandkids of the longtime suburbanites? Are some of them minorities and single chicks? Yes. But are many of them secular families with kids (the types who take their kids to drag queen shows and put "in this house we believe" signs in their yards)? Undoubtedly so. I see tons of that crap every time I visit Plano now and plenty of them in the areas that are still nice.
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Like I said it's a shell game. People that were in urban areas have migrated somewhat. But long time suburbanites haven't changed their political views. . just like the newer folks to suburbs. Same old same old
 
I'm quick to get on Biden for his mental lapses, but this has to invite scrutiny. We can't be consistent without calling this out. I'm not a Cocaine Mitch hater at all, but he needs to step down. He doesn't necessarily have to quit the Senate. He can probably finish his term, but he needs to leave the leadership.

 
Horn6721 said:
IF the Repubs do not remove that poor sick man from leadership position they are worthless pos every bit as corrupt as any Demx
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And I don't think this is good for McConnell either. Something is clearly wrong. Let's put the job on somebody else and let him get the care he needs.
 
Does the BBC and other media do stories on Biden's incoherence? If not, then that's why I dont give 2 squirts about this.

That's the problem with republicans is trying to be consistent when the media deck is stacked against us and being consistent don't make a ****.
 
horninchicago said:
Does the BBC and other media do stories on Biden's incoherence? If not, then that's why I dont give 2 squirts about this.

That's the problem with republicans is trying to be consistent when the media deck is stacked against us and being consistent don't make a ****.
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So if American Airlines started hiring blind pilots, would you want your own airline to hire blind pilots so that they'd be following the same rules as your competitor? I assume so, since that makes about as much sense.

I understand the logic of being willing to be no less nasty and aggressive as one's opponent, but you can go too far with that if you insist on something that's a disadvantage. Having a senile leader or a leader who's a walking stroke is a liability, not an asset. We'd be better served without that problem regardless of what Democrats do.
 
Mr. Deez said:
I'm quick to get on Biden for his mental lapses, but this has to invite scrutiny. We can't be consistent without calling this out. I'm not a Cocaine Mitch hater at all, but he needs to step down. He doesn't necessarily have to quit the Senate. He can probably finish his term, but he needs to leave the leadership.

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The only thing I dislike about this reporting is that the press NEVER NEVER says a single peep about Biden's obvious mental lapses.

They both need to gtfo politics.
 
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If she was in a R+30 district, I wouldn't care as much, but she's in a district that's R+7. It's an easy win for a normal Republican but a struggle for a weird Republican like her. I'm also not a fan of this type of congressman - in office to self-promote and makes no serious effort to legislate.

Two points. 1. I will concede her hotness in a trashy "2 wine coolers away from taking her top off at a NASCAR race" kind of way. 2. Though I'd defer to Garmel on this, it looks like she's had a boob job.

 
Mr. Deez said:
If she was in a R+30 district, I wouldn't care as much, but she's in a district that's R+7. It's an easy win for a normal Republican but a struggle for a weird Republican like her. I'm also not a fan of this type of congressman - in office to self-promote and makes no serious effort to legislate.

Two points. 1. I will concede her hotness in a trashy "2 wine coolers away from taking her top off at a NASCAR race" kind of way. 2. Though I'd defer to Garmel on this, it looks like she's had a boob job.

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She's too nutty to last long as a Rep there.
 
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