2022 House and Senate election

[Monahorns]

I'm saying the Democrats didn't dictate the rules.

I get what you are saying. My point was that if the Republicans are in charge but didn't restrict or eliminate mail in votes then they in essence gave the power over to Democrats to set up election rules. Obviously I have no idea what the details are. But with Kemp in power, if he and the Republicans are actually governing properly, they will set up election rules do not put themselves at a disadvantage. If the Republicans allowed mail-in votes and didn't work to facilitate Republican voters to use it then they are pretty weak or dumb or both. They are basically doing the Democrats work for them.

 

[Mr. Deez]

I get what you are saying. My point was that if the Republicans are in charge but didn't restrict or eliminate mail in votes then they in essence gave the power over to Democrats to set up election rules. Obviously I have no idea what the details are. But with Kemp in power, if he and the Republicans are actually governing properly, they will set up election rules do not put themselves at a disadvantage. If the Republicans allowed mail-in votes and didn't work to facilitate Republican voters to use it then they are pretty weak or dumb or both. They are basically doing the Democrats work for them.

When they passed it originally, it wasn't considered an advantage to Democrats. It became an advantage, when they started taking advantage of it in large numbers. Once you pass no-excuse mail-in voting, it's hard to get rid of it, because many of your own voters are dependent on it. It can backfire. It also looks sleazy to pass something that you think helps you and then get rid of it when the other side figures out how to use it and does a better job at it than you do.

 

[Garmel]

When they passed it originally, it wasn't considered an advantage to Democrats. It became an advantage, when they started taking advantage of it in large numbers. Once you pass no-excuse mail-in voting, it's hard to get rid of it, because many of your own voters are dependent on it. It can backfire. It also looks sleazy to pass something that you think helps you and then get rid of it when the other side figures out how to use it and does a better job at it than you do.

That's why we have to get involved in it ourselves.

 

[Mr. Deez]

That's why we have to get involved in it ourselves.

In states that have it, yes. And fight it in states that don't.

 

[Monahorns]

When they passed it originally, it wasn't considered an advantage to Democrats. It became an advantage, when they started taking advantage of it in large numbers. Once you pass no-excuse mail-in voting, it's hard to get rid of it, because many of your own voters are dependent on it. It can backfire. It also looks sleazy to pass something that you think helps you and then get rid of it when the other side figures out how to use it and does a better job at it than you do.

It is difficult to do if you care what your enemies think of you. If your focus is on governing well and holding power you get rid of it after you see how bad the effects are.

 

[Garmel]

In states that have it, yes. And fight it in states that don't.

Yep. We don't need any more red states going purple.

 

[Garmel]

I want to show this to you. This is something we saw in 2020 a lot of. Now, if it went in both directions it could be a mistake but it has only gone in one direction in every case.

This is the updated live vote total from Georgia in the 2022 midterms. Check out the senate race and look at Herschel's vote total in the two time periods.

 

[Mr. Deez]

It is difficult to do if you care what your enemies think of you. If your focus is on governing well and holding power you get rid of it after you see how bad the effects are.

I know it feels tough and righteous to frame things that way, but as usual, there's more to it. Republican voters in Georgia are also voting by mail. Democrats do it more, but a significant number of Republicans do as well. If you dump it, you'll lose voters. Will Democrats also lose voters? Sure, but it's not impossible for you to end up worse off if a greater percentage of the Democratic mail-in voters decide to show up in person.

Obviously, if you're a guy like Kemp and have enough appeal to win either way, there's no reason to push for the change (though I don't think he would oppose it). However, if you're a state legislator in Georgia, you have to look at it on a district-by-district basis. It's not a simple as, "I don't care what my enemies think of me, so I'll just dump mail-in balloting." Most politicians don't care what their enemies think of them. That's a bullcrap narrative that ****-flingers throw around. They care about getting reelected, and they care about holding power.

 

[Monahorns]

I know it feels tough and righteous to frame things that way, but as usual, there's more to it. Republican voters in Georgia are also voting by mail. Democrats do it more, but a significant number of Republicans do as well. If you dump it, you'll lose voters. Will Democrats also lose voters? Sure, but it's not impossible for you to end up worse off if a greater percentage of the Democratic mail-in voters decide to show up in person.

Regardless of how it makes me feel , there is a real politick to the stance. It is the way Democrats rule and set rules. They maximize their chances for power.

The point is that the Dems gained more votes that Repubs through mail-in voting. You either play by rules that advantage yourself or you play by rules that advantage your opponent. In Georgia, the Repubs are playing by rules that advantage Dems.

Of course you never know what the response will be, but we do know that the Dems gained more voters than Repubs through mail-in ballots. It also opens the door for more fraud. It is also probable that the Repubs won't be able to game the mail-in system much better than they are already doing. The scheme works better with poorer, urban voters not middle class rural voters. At least that is an opinion I read. It is in Repubs best interests to end the practice wherever and how ever they can.

Obviously, if you're a guy like Kemp and have enough appeal to win either way, there's no reason to push for the change (though I don't think he would oppose it). However, if you're a state legislator in Georgia, you have to look at it on a district-by-district basis. It's not a simple as, "I don't care what my enemies think of me, so I'll just dump mail-in balloting." Most politicians don't care what their enemies think of them. That's a bullcrap narrative that ****-flingers throw around. They care about getting reelected, and they care about holding power.

I think Repubs have shown millions of times that regardless of whatever level of desire they have to hold power they are also very concerned about what the left thinks about them. They do things or don't do things that look too extreme or cynical or powerful. So much so that they consistently criticize anyone they consider "too conservative".

There are exceptions to every rule of course but there is too much evidence for me to believe that the Rs do everything in their power to maintain power and push policy. I do see the Ds doing that. The Supreme Court nominations during the Trump administration were one such exception and that was a bit surprising.

 

[nashhorn]

So in 4 minutes Walker lost votes? 20,000+ votes just gone? Give me a break.

 

[Garmel]

LOL! We know they won't.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Regardless of how it makes me feel , there is a real politick to the stance. It is the way Democrats rule and set rules. They maximize their chances for power.

The point is that the Dems gained more votes that Repubs through mail-in voting. You either play by rules that advantage yourself or you play by rules that advantage your opponent. In Georgia, the Repubs are playing by rules that advantage Dems.

Of course you never know what the response will be, but we do know that the Dems gained more voters than Repubs through mail-in ballots. It also opens the door for more fraud. It is also probable that the Repubs won't be able to game the mail-in system much better than they are already doing. The scheme works better with poorer, urban voters not middle class rural voters. At least that is an opinion I read. It is in Repubs best interests to end the practice wherever and how ever they can.



I think Repubs have shown millions of times that regardless of whatever level of desire they have to hold power they are also very concerned about what the left thinks about them. They do things or don't do things that look too extreme or cynical or powerful. So much so that they consistently criticize anyone they consider "too conservative".

There are exceptions to every rule of course but there is too much evidence for me to believe that the Rs do everything in their power to maintain power and push policy. I do see the Ds doing that. The Supreme Court nominations during the Trump administration were one such exception and that was a bit surprising.

They're not doing it because they care what the Left thinks of them. They're doing it because they think it will help them. It is an entirely self-serving ambition.

 

[Monahorns]

They're not doing it because they care what the Left thinks of them. They're doing it because they think it will help them. It is an entirely self-serving ambition.

Ok. Have you read that somewhere? I would like to read up on the issue.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Ok. Have you read that somewhere? I would like to read up on the issue.

No, I've seen it first hand. And it makes sense. Consider a guy like McCain. In the '80s and '90s, he was a very solid conservative, and most people outside of Arizona had no idea who he was. He spent a good 15 years in the House and Senate virtually never voting with Democrats. Then in the late '90s, he started to vote with Democrats - not all the time but on some high profile issues that attracted a lot of attention. The first big one was on tobacco regulation. Next was campaign finance "reform." He also started to play the roll of sorta slowing down the GOP agenda. He'd threaten to bolt if the tax cuts were too big. He'd sign onto bipartisan compromises on things like judicial nominations and immigration.

So why the big change? Do you really think he just suddenly woke up some day in 1997 or '98 and thought, "gee, I've been screwing with Tom Daschle, George Mitchell, and Tip O'Neil my whole career, and I really wish they'd like me better." No, he saw the 2000 presidential election coming and saw moderating as an easy way to attract attention and become a national figure. Sure enough, it worked - not yet in 2000 but in 2008. He did it for self-serving reasons.

 

[Monahorns]

Either way, the Left definitely liked him better when he started voting with them some. He wasn't concerned with pushing "good" policy or representing AZ as much as getting people to like him in DC and in the RNC. Funny that he concluded that "people" would like him more and he could have a bigger position in the GOP by voting with the Ds occasionally. We are saying very similar things I think.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Either way, the Left definitely liked him better when he started voting with them some.

Of course. Do we like Joe Manchin better than we like Elizabeth Warren? Same issue at play.

He wasn't concerned with pushing "good" policy or representing AZ as much as getting people to like him in DC and in the RNC. Funny that he concluded that "people" would like him more and he could have a bigger position in the GOP by voting with the Ds occasionally. We are saying very similar things I think.

The RNC doesn't want people who vote with Democrats. DC does, but they don't get him the Republican nomination. Republican primary voters do. What voting with the Ds did was get him more media coverage and therefore more name recognition. In addition, in 2000, there was also a significant number of center-Right Republicans especially in the Northeast and the West Coast. By shifting away from the Right a little (where Bush was appealing), he could appeal to those voters, especially in New Hampshire. It worked in New Hampshire, which gave him some momentum. Obviously, it fizzled out eventually, but it gave him the national attention that enabled him to basically walk into the '08 nomination.

So yes, it was about helping himself (specifically to win the nomination), not about getting Democrats to like him.

 

[Garmel]

Walker looks to be in too deep of a hole to get out of.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Ronna should be shitcanned, and it's not a Trump issue. It's a failure issue. She blew three straight elections, and at least two were very winnable.

 

[Garmel]

Ronna should be shitcanned, and it's not a Trump issue. It's a failure issue. She blew three straight elections, and at least two were very winnable.

Our leadership ideas are antiquated. Dhillon will help.

 

[Garmel]

It's not rocket science.

 

[theiioftx]

Ronna should be shitcanned, and it's not a Trump issue. It's a failure issue. She blew three straight elections, and at least two were very winnable.

She has a job waiting for her at MSNBC to replace Michael Steele. They can’t pretend he is republican much longer and he isn’t diddling Mika(at least we don’t know it.)

 

[mchammer]

Herschel up 1.2% with 66% of vote in. Warnock polling to win by 3-4 pts seem fake.

 

[mchammer]

Now 50.1-49.9 Walker with 84% in. Looking similar to last Election Day with late votes going to Warnock.

 

[Garmel]

A foreigner even notices it.

 

[Horns11]

A foreigner even notices it.

A foreigner who posts about Elon and American politics 3 dozen times per day.

Why isn't anyone quick to blame the GGA and governor? Republicans have a 34-22 majority in the State Senate, a 103-77 majority in the State House, and the entire executive branch. Couldn't they... you know... pass laws that would affect how these "late" votes are counted?

Or is it just fun to blame Democrat cheating?

 

[Garmel]

lol

 

[Garmel]

I guess this was an improvement over the 2020 election since no pipe burst.

 

[Mr. Deez]

A foreigner who posts about Elon and American politics 3 dozen times per day.

Why isn't anyone quick to blame the GGA and governor? Republicans have a 34-22 majority in the State Senate, a 103-77 majority in the State House, and the entire executive branch. Couldn't they... you know... pass laws that would affect how these "late" votes are counted?

Or is it just fun to blame Democrat cheating?

And Georgia Democrats only cheat on US Senate and presidential elections. They don't care about US House, governor, or state legislative elections. They're cool with Republicans winning those.

It's pretty clear to me that Georgia is a red-leaning but non-MAGA state. Most importantly, it is more non-MAGA than it is red, and Trump people seem to have a hard time accepting that. There are significant numbers of ticket splitters, especially in Atlanta and its surrounding suburbs. They'll vote for a Republican (even a pretty conservative one) but not an overly Trump-oriented candidate. We can either deal with that and move on from the guy who wonders whether we should suspend the Constitution, or we can keep losing in Georgia.

 

[Garmel]

The effect only comes in on close races and on top of that they don't go after every race. We lost two runoffs last year with supposedly the type RINOs would vote for. Oh, wait. That loss was Trump's fault

They don't go after House races? We sure didn't do so well in the House despite a prediction of a landslide did we? I guess that was Trump's fault too.

Suspend the Constitution? Like I said another liberal nothingburger that the RINOs will cling to. Read Trump's whole statement.

I guess it'll take Trump being out of the picture when y'all eventually figure out what's going on.

Meanwhile, keep enjoying the two week vote counting where we get the shaft in races where we were predicted to win by 2-4 points.

 

[Crockett]

Walker's showing in Georgia shows the strength of the GOP. Walker came across as dumb and had more skeletons in his closet than Dracula. His opponent came across as smart, honorable and liberal. If the Republicans had fielded a candidate with a triple digit IQ and no history of domestic abuse, the Senate would be 50-50.