2022 House and Senate election

The good news - we have a chance at the Michigan governorship (and she's hot). We didn't put the Missouri Senate seat on the board as a flip opportunity for Democrats.

The bad news - we most likely threw away the Arizona Senate seat, and unless there's a very late shift, we're going to throw away the Arizona governorship. We also threw away a House seat in Michigan.
 
The good news - Blake Masters primary win shows that Republicans in Arizona are actually conservative. He understands the issues very well and can clearly articulate solutions.

The bad news - Arizonans no longer get to pick from liberal-D and liberal-R.
 
Mr. Deez said:
The good news - we have a chance at the Michigan governorship (and she's hot). We didn't put the Missouri Senate seat on the board as a flip opportunity for Democrats.

The bad news - we most likely threw away the Arizona Senate seat, and unless there's a very late shift, we're going to throw away the Arizona governorship. We also threw away a House seat in Michigan.
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Not so sure about AZ...for either position. Turnout by Republicans far outweighed the Demx turnout. So unless there was one helluva crossover vote, seats are definitely in play and lean red...
 
Monahorns said:
The good news - Blake Masters primary win shows that Republicans in Arizona are actually conservative. He understands the issues very well and can clearly articulate solutions.

The bad news - Arizonans no longer get to pick from liberal-D and liberal-R.
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I don't have a big problem with Masters on issues, but in a purple state against a reasonably likable candidate, he is a long shot at best. And there were no liberal-Rs on the ballot.
 
mb227 said:
Not so sure about AZ...for either position. Turnout by Republicans far outweighed the Demx turnout. So unless there was one helluva crossover vote, seats are definitely in play and lean red...
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The Dems didn't have a hotly contested statewide race. The Rs did.
 
Mr. Deez said:
The Dems didn't have a hotly contested statewide race. The Rs did.
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Which tells you part of what you need to know about their electorate...

INFORMED voters turn out even for the boring school board and bond referendum ballots...
 
mb227 said:
Which tells you part of what you need to know about their electorate...

INFORMED voters turn out even for the boring school board and bond referendum ballots...
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To quote the great Mr. Wolfe, let's not start.....

I got very excited about poor midterm turnout a few years ago on the GOP side and predicted a win by a Democratic candidate for the House in a traditionally red district. Once the main election hit all of the voters showed me why I was incorrect in my analysis based off of a pimary.
 
Mr. Deez said:
I don't have a big problem with Masters on issues, but in a purple state against a reasonably likable candidate, he is a long shot at best. And there were no liberal-Rs on the ballot.
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Kelly not too likable nowadays. Mask has been removed.
 
OUBubba said:
To quote the great Mr. Wolfe, let's not start.....

I got very excited about poor midterm turnout a few years ago on the GOP side and predicted a win by a Democratic candidate for the House in a traditionally red district. Once the main election hit all of the voters showed me why I was incorrect in my analysis based off of a pimary.
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I think you can interpret some from primary numbers if we're comparing apples to apples. However, if one side has a hotly contested race and the other doesn't, turnout will usually be lower in the primary. It's not always indicative of the ultimate outcome. For example, Republicans outvoted Democrats by about 140,000 votes in the 2018 Arizona race. The GOP still lost the general election.

Ultimately, the Arizona GOP is in an ugly civil war with McCain/Flake types on one side and Arpaio/Ward types on the other side. The latter is winning. It feels a lot like the GOP battles in California in the late '90s. That didn't end well.
 
Monahorns said:
The good news - Blake Masters primary win shows that Republicans in Arizona are actually conservative. He understands the issues very well and can clearly articulate solutions.

The bad news - Arizonans no longer get to pick from liberal-D and liberal-R.
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Apparently, being 'actually Republican' means you are...
Opinion | Arizona Just Chose a Senate Candidate More Extreme Than Donald Trump

I can't read the article but just going off the headline - more extreme that Trump. LOL
 
Monahorns said:
Well if the NYT says... :rolleyes1:

But it is correct. Blake is more radical or extreme on freedom and limited government. He would be a great Senator.
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Just out of curiosity, how do you reconcile with these guys on trade? I consider myself a moderate on trade, but you're pretty rigidly pro-free trade. Most of these guys are not.
 
Mr. Deez said:
Just out of curiosity, how do you reconcile with these guys on trade? I consider myself a moderate on trade, but you're pretty rigidly pro-free trade. Most of these guys are not.
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I vehemently disagree on trade restrictions. If Masters is a trade restriction guy, I will clearly disagree on that. I don't like tariffs for sure. The only thing I could agree with if there was some incentive to develop alternative supply chains outside of China. It could help on several different levels. But Trump's tariffs hurt American businessmen pretty bad in several industries. He should never make it harder for American producers to export. Which was actually contradictory to what he said he wants.

Masters though might be a bit a different bird on trade. Some of the names and ideas he references could be evidence that he would be very good on trade.
 
I'm glad he won, but it's a R+8 district. In a GOP year, it should be pretty easy to hold a district like that.
 
guy4321 said:
I don't know who Samuels is, but (s)he can't be worse than Omar. Then again, I'm not a self-loathing whitey.
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People complaining that Omar could have been beaten if certain Dem groups didn’t sit on the sidelines.
 
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This info is clearly anecdotal, but I was in the Valley yesterday, traveling through Willacy and Cameron counties. I saw plenty of campaign signs for Mayra Flores, but not a single one for her opponent. Gives me hope she can pull it off.
 
Sangre Naranjada said:
This info is clearly anecdotal, but I was in the Valley yesterday, traveling through Willacy and Cameron counties. I saw plenty of campaign signs for Mayra Flores, but not a single one for her opponent. Gives me hope she can pull it off.
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Flores campaign slogan should be, “voting for my opponent is like eating a **** taco”.
 
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