2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence
- Thread starter ProdigalHorn
- Start date
In Florida, vote by mail and early voters are identified by party.
However you don’t know % of crossover voters, independents preferences, or the number who show up on Election Day.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
From this article
"With just two weeks until the election, Republicans are seeing a surge in voter registration in the battleground states of Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Florida. Republicans have out-registered Democrats in those states by about 445,000 to 224,000 since the primaries, with an aggressive push since August. It marks the first time since 2004 that more Republicans than Democrats have registered to vote in the final months of an election.
Republicans have never had a registration advantage over Democrats in Florida. This year they have narrowed their lead, leaving Democrats with 136,000 more registered voters, nearly half of what they had in 2016 and the smallest gap that has existed between the parties in more than 40 years.
In three months, Republicans registered 30,000 more Arizona voters than Democrats, a state that already has a 97,000-person GOP advantage. In North Carolina, Republicans signed up 28,774 more voters than Democrats, eating into their partisan advantage by more than half. In Pennsylvania, which Trump won in 2016 by 44,000 votes, Republicans eroded the Democratic advantage by 24%. In the last three months, Republicans registered 71,922 more Pennsylvania voters than Democrats.
In Florida, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Democrats made up a smaller share of new registrants during this election cycle, according to a study by the Democratic data firm TargetSmart...."
Republicans have never had a registration advantage over Democrats in Florida. This year they have narrowed their lead, leaving Democrats with 136,000 more registered voters, nearly half of what they had in 2016 and the smallest gap that has existed between the parties in more than 40 years.
In three months, Republicans registered 30,000 more Arizona voters than Democrats, a state that already has a 97,000-person GOP advantage. In North Carolina, Republicans signed up 28,774 more voters than Democrats, eating into their partisan advantage by more than half. In Pennsylvania, which Trump won in 2016 by 44,000 votes, Republicans eroded the Democratic advantage by 24%. In the last three months, Republicans registered 71,922 more Pennsylvania voters than Democrats.
In Florida, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, Democrats made up a smaller share of new registrants during this election cycle, according to a study by the Democratic data firm TargetSmart...."
Dems are +300k with VBM and early votes combined. They need to be +500k to have a chance.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
There is already an intraday update, to this update
Another 5,000 Rs were just added to FL in person early voting totals
Now Rs +285,051
The D-advantage in Palm Beach is down to just D +888.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Here are numbers from a few interesting individual FL counties --
Sumter Co ("The Villages"/Seniors)
R 71%
D 13.6%
Rs outperforming 2016 in this "senior county" by 3 points.
Pinellas R+9 ('16 Trump +1)
Miami-Dade R+2 ('16 Hills +14)
Palm Beach D+1 ('16 Hills +15)
Ds are underperforming in many counties.
Sumter Co ("The Villages"/Seniors)
R 71%
D 13.6%
Rs outperforming 2016 in this "senior county" by 3 points.
Pinellas R+9 ('16 Trump +1)
Miami-Dade R+2 ('16 Hills +14)
Palm Beach D+1 ('16 Hills +15)
Ds are underperforming in many counties.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
NYT concedes that Trump doing better with Hispanics in Texas
With Weakness Among Hispanic Voters, Biden Trails in Texas
Over all, Mr. Trump leads Joe Biden, 47 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters. The majority of interviews were conducted before the final presidential debate on Thursday. In the Senate race, the Republican incumbent, John Cornyn, holds a larger lead, 48-38, over the Democrat, M.J. Hegar.
With Weakness Among Hispanic Voters, Biden Trails in Texas
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Wisconsin also appears to be running different from what the national media polls have been saying --
Wisconsin Early Ballot Returns Show Polls Are Wrong–Republicans Storm The Polls, Now Ahead in WI
With 1,294,660 ballots cast, the GOP leads the early vote in Wisconsin. 42% GOP to 36% DEM. About 46% of the estimated total votes for 2020 have been cast. In Wisconsin, you can register and vote the same day, so this is still a close race. Over the past few days, Republicans have stormed the polls and are beginning to take the lead in early voting in several sates. The following data is derived from actual ballots cast.
* * *
Aas we approach November 3rd, 2020. In Wisconsin, this effect may be subdued since so many Republicans have voted early. However, the remaining poll of super-voters in Wisconsin remains split between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have the clear edge because they are currently up. But the race is far from over.
These early ballot numbers are unexpected because the current aggregate of polls show Biden up 5+ points and the Democrats were supposed to have the clear advantage in early voting.
However, emerging evidence suggests that Trump supporters do not trust polls, and therefore, do not take their calls — especially when it requires a time commitment of at least twenty minutes.
While it appears that President Trump is on the cusp of victory in Wisconsin, this can only happen if Republicans continue to show up with the same vigor as they have up until this point. In other words, Trump has a very good chance of winning Wisconsin–about 90%–if Republicans do not get complacent.
* * *
Aas we approach November 3rd, 2020. In Wisconsin, this effect may be subdued since so many Republicans have voted early. However, the remaining poll of super-voters in Wisconsin remains split between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have the clear edge because they are currently up. But the race is far from over.
These early ballot numbers are unexpected because the current aggregate of polls show Biden up 5+ points and the Democrats were supposed to have the clear advantage in early voting.
However, emerging evidence suggests that Trump supporters do not trust polls, and therefore, do not take their calls — especially when it requires a time commitment of at least twenty minutes.
While it appears that President Trump is on the cusp of victory in Wisconsin, this can only happen if Republicans continue to show up with the same vigor as they have up until this point. In other words, Trump has a very good chance of winning Wisconsin–about 90%–if Republicans do not get complacent.
Wisconsin Early Ballot Returns Show Polls Are Wrong–Republicans Storm The Polls, Now Ahead in WI
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Another NYT piece -- this one shows black shift to Trump in Philly
The Election May Hinge on Pennsylvania. Can the Polls Get the State Right?
The Election May Hinge on Pennsylvania. Can the Polls Get the State Right?
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Polls are no longer about getting it right, any more than the nightly news is about reporting what happened compared to the leftist narrative, or movies / sports about entertainment compared to the leftist cause.
I mean, why should they accurately poll things, compared to fixing it to look like a large Dem lead? Professional polling pride? Loss of business? It hasn't hurt the above industries, so why would it bother polling?
As I stated before, the willful blindness, to use A McCarty's term, on our side to run and look at poll from a media outfit that hates Trump, is something to see.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Huge about the Villages. It's a planned retirement community, more of a city actually, north of Orlando. Slow Joe's only hope in Florida was if the old folks turned on Trump after months of fear mongering about the Wuhan virus. Doesn't look like that's happened.
The other numbers are horrible for the Democrats. Pinellas is the Tampa area - so a big city that Slow Joe needs to pile up in, not lose, and certainly not get skunked in.
The rural areas of Florida, with small to mid-sized cites that no one who's not from there has ever heard of (the Archers, Waldo's, Hathrones, Live Oak, Lake City) are going to go huge for Trump.
It's the mirror effect that Obama had on black areas in 08 and 12 - Trump is their hero, someone who speaks directly to them and champions their issues, even though, as Obama, he does not share any history with those areas. He's a cultural icon to them, and they're going to turn out in huge numbers for them.
Florida's a done deal - hopefully it carries over to a few house races, like getting rid of the execrable Charlie Christ, who lost elections as a Democrat, Republican, and an Independent. Sort of like how Bill Pullman was famous for being killed by a Terminator, an Alien, and a Predator.
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Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Besides the one trick pony Nate S, who's successfully predicted 6 of the last 3 Democrat wins, I don't think anyone thought Ohio was going to Slow Joe.
So how was it?
Well, the recollection is quite fuzzy. I was in college at the time, (cue, "I was really drunk at the time" from Dark Side of the Moon). It was kind of there. No better than Pearl Lite, that's for sure. We were prone to buy kegs of Lowenbrau and listen to Aja by Steely Dan. The Billy Beer was definitely a novelty item. We also would have "Foreign Beer" night the first weekend back from Christmas Break. Billy may have made the cut because we considered Georgia to be alien territory.
Covering the same period of time, IBD has Biden up by 7. Who's sweating? There's plenty of taint, sweat, and taint sweat to go around.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
More Biden Gaffes: Confuses Trump With President George Bush, Thinks 'Free College' Costs $150 Billion
So when not amped up for a debate, Slow Joe apparently doesn't remember who he's running against, or who the current president is.
He's also said, on multiple occasions, that he's running for the senate.
Notice how he'll allowed, without push-back or questioning from the media, to have his wife there as a helper / handler for the interview. Course even if she wasn't there, the media type would have gently corrected him, then moved on without issue.
I wonder if the media types make daily pledges for who donates the most to Slow Joe's campaign fund, with the winner getting to change Joe's diaper at the end of the day?
So when not amped up for a debate, Slow Joe apparently doesn't remember who he's running against, or who the current president is.
He's also said, on multiple occasions, that he's running for the senate.
Notice how he'll allowed, without push-back or questioning from the media, to have his wife there as a helper / handler for the interview. Course even if she wasn't there, the media type would have gently corrected him, then moved on without issue.
I wonder if the media types make daily pledges for who donates the most to Slow Joe's campaign fund, with the winner getting to change Joe's diaper at the end of the day?
I already explained to you the upper end of range for Trump support among all the polls is the accurate take.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
So 23 trips since what, late August? With ten of them being in next door PA, so back to the basement by 9, 10 at the latest.
Loads of twitter folks think Trump is pulling out of a losing situation to save his butt in PA. I kid you not.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
uh oh
This posting is ******* sick. Seriously, this is a microcosm of the cesspool that JoeFan plays in and too many on the West Mall eat it up like candy.
Y'all have lost your morals that you fail to call out this level of denigration. Seriously, what are you guys HEARING when you attend church each Sunday then stand by an let this level of filth go unchallenged?
This is an interesting study. As whites become more woke, lazy and spoiled, blacks and hispanics are deciding they will not be part of the victim mentality.
Trump Is Losing Ground With White Voters But Gaining Among Black And Hispanic Americans
Trump Is Losing Ground With White Voters But Gaining Among Black And Hispanic Americans
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Who says I attend Church? Rather bigoted to think that good observant atheists aren't supporting President Trump as well.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
I think that ties in with the move, not transfer as race still plays a huge role in voting, but move, from the working class voting Democrat to Republican, and white collar whites voting Democrat.
You see this in other countries as well. The UK had an election in December, with massive shifts of the working class from the leftist Labor party to the conservative Tory party. Same thing happened earlier in the year in Australia, where upper middle class suburbs, long conservative (Liberal Party in Aus) areas went leftist Labor party, while working class areas in Queensland (sort of the Texas of Aus) went Liberal for the first time.
Across the western world, the leftist parties are becoming the parties of those on government benefits, government workers, and the upper middle class to rich. While the right wing parties are upper lower class and middle class.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Which is about 100% stupid. Far easier for him to win in Ohio than PA. Par for the course for Twatter talk
There is no limit to the stupidity.
You're right. The reported pictures and videos from Hs hard drive are reported to pretty sick and depraved. Would be nice if the MSM actually talked about it. But RUSSIA!!!!
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