2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence

Pretty amazing that every non-subjective non-poll indicator shows Trump winning.
 
Sangre Naranjada said:
No, that's not a ridiculous thought at all. Who would most want to leave the socialist paradise of California?
A leftist, or a normal, decent American?
SeattleHusker, or you?
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Then why aren't these states turning more red then? North Carolina turned purple and New Hampshire turned blue due to lefties escaping those places. Unfortunately, they bring their old voting habits with them.
 
Mr. Deez said:
People have been moving from California to Arizona for decades, and yet it was pretty red until very recently. The people moving from California to Arizona aren't left wing kooks from Berkeley. They are suburbanites and professionals from Los Angeles and San Diego. They used to help make Arizona Republican. Now that we repel suburbanites, it makes Arizona more Democratic.
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I can't speak to what's going on in AZ, but here in Texas it's very different from 1984. My brother lives in Plano, fairly affluent neighborhood. When he bought his home in 1983 he was one of 2 Texans on the block, but his neighbors were very conservative .

Same neighborhood, today most of his newer neighbors are Democrats, one of which refers to the county courthouse as The Reichstag. The neighborhood is probably more desirable today than it was 30 years ago (unlike much of plano) but it's less Red.

In Sunnyvale we've seen some influx of Democrats but not enough to matter
 
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The exodus from California obviously isn't going to be 100% left or right types. I'm just saying it's not ridiculous to imagine conservative people getting the hell out of a leftist, poopy-sidewalked paradise.
 
Horn2RunAgain said:
I can't speak to what's going on in AZ, but here in Texas it's very different from 1984. My brother lives in Plano, fairly affluent neighborhood. When he bought his home in 1983 he was one of 2 Texans on the block, but his neighbors were very conservative .

Same neighborhood, today most of his newer neighbors are Democrats, one of which refers to the county courthouse as The Reichstag. The neighborhood is probably more desirable today than it was 30 years ago (unlike much of plano) but it's less Red.

In Sunnyvale we've seen some influx of Democrats but not enough to matter
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That's exactly my point. Back in the 1980s and even the '90s and early 2000s, suburbanite professionals meant Republicans. That isn't true anymore.

I do think Trump aggravated it, but he didn't create the problem. I think four big things created it. First, going to college now means heavy leftist indoctrination. Second, with the Cold War over and the War on Terror greatly subsided, there isn't a big national security threat to rally around. Third, religious observance is down, especially among people under 40 or 50. Finally, the GOP has blown its credibility on fiscal responsibility. They used to be able to make a pitch to socially moderate voters like looked something like this. "We may disagree on some items, but we will respectfully disagree and won't be irresponsible with your money like the other party will. Well, they occasionally still try that pitch but after the second Bush and Trump Administrations blowing the deficits up with reckless abandon, it simply doesn't hold water the way it used to.
 
mchammer said:
ElHVdMzXgAEsqGo
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I love that sign
Print them by the thousands I say!
 
Twitter uses wishes for neighbors house to burn down, yet with 100% certainty, nothing will happen to their account.

But if you say men in dresses should keep out of the ladies room, your account is finished.
 
Joe Fan said:
Florida --As of this morning, Rs are winning the early voting in Miami/Dade County -- by ~3,000 votes
Hillary won that county by 30 pts (and still lost the state)

Statistics - County Vote-by-Mail and Early Voting Reports
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This is the early in person voting. Dems have lead in Miami-Dade when votes by mail (+81k VBM) are included. Regardless, Dems likely don’t have enough excess votes (EV+VBM) before Election Day.
 
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Amazing numbers. I think FLA was pretty much always a Trump win, baring a wipe out election, which it's not. He probably wins by a larger amount than 2016.

Will probably come down to the Midwest states and AZ. Would be nice to have a strong senator there to help drive R turnout, instead of the horrible politician that McSally is.

Much has been made of R losses in the suburbs compared the 80's or 90's. Yet the party is a competitive as it's been - it's hardly like the R party was whipping up in the house in the 80's.

Why? I think it's part of the general movement of the Republican party from the upper middle class and the rich, to a working class party, with larger support from working class who's black or Hispanic. If you drive a truck, you probably vote Republican. If you own a national trucking company and are worth 500 million, you're probably a Democrat.

The Democrat party is turning into a party exclusively of those on public assistance, government workers, and the upper class, while those in the middle vote Republican.

This, prior to Trump has caused problems for the Republican party, mainly as the R leadership, both elected officials and those in party positions, really don't like those people. It's been Trump who's gotten massive support from the blue collar, middle class voter, and embraced that support and encouraged it. He, a billionaire from NYC, the most un-likeliest of all to get working class support, has gotten more of it from any Republican candidate since Reagan.
 
And look, it's only natural that both elected officials, and all the associated people involved in politics - the staffers, the media and advertising consultants, the various lawyers and other hangers on, all find it far easier, and more rewarding, to focus on getting voters from their own social and economic class.

It's why the "soccer mom" from the 90's, now the "suburban woman" of today, is so covered. That group is their wives, girl friends, neighbors, co-workers, or them. It's both who they know, and who they want to have vote the same way as them.

Far harder for a lawyer, working in a political campaign, to either figure out how to appeal to a truck driver, or, honestly, to really want, care, or understand about their concerns and what drives their vote?

It's easy for Democrats - they just say the R party is racialist, or wants to make them all poor.

Neither of those tact would work for a Republican strategist, so they would have to work to understand and appeal to the working class, and most importantly, actually care about them, not just go through the motions, then crack on auto mechanics at some cocktail party attended by other lawyers and make jokes about how even thinking up ads for the working class gets grease under their fingernails, etc.

It's taken Trump, for all his flaws as a person, and his background as a NYC billionaire, to cut through those Republican strategist and leadership who share the Democrat's strategist's contempt for the working class, and offer then a champion for their views and their needs.
 
Duck Dodgers said:
It's why the "soccer mom" from the 90's, now the "suburban woman" of today, is so covered. That group is their wives, girl friends, neighbors, co-workers, or them. It's both who they know, and who they want to have vote the same way as them.

Far harder for a lawyer, working in a political campaign, to either figure out how to appeal to a truck driver, or, honestly, to really want, care, or understand about their concerns and what drives their vote?
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I'm sure there's a lot of truth to this. The political class focuses on suburban women at least to a significant degree because it more closely relates to and is sympathetic to them. That's no group that is held on greater contempt than lower to middle class white men.
 


This is just bizarre. I've watched politics since 1980, when I was 10 (I was a strange child). And I've never seen this before.

10 days before an election, and a candidate does, at most, one lazy event a few hundred miles at most away from their home, then calls it at day by 9.

Would only have any chance if you're a Democrat who will treat your press releases as official facts, ask no un-approved questions, and donate every spare dime they have to your campaign.

I know the Democrat narrative is this election is Trump / Not Trump, so keeping Slow Joe in the basement helps keep the focus on Trump. That might work if Trump was polling 30 percent and had no shot at it.

But it's a close election, and at this point in the country, turning out your people is a huge aspect of winning elections. Hard to get folks fired up when you're either in bed or holding private events by 9 am.
 
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mchammer said:
@Mr. Deez Who’s sweating?

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Not worried about FLA. Easy win for Trump.

MI and AZ would be nice. Those two plus the historical GOP states (GA, NC, Iowa, OHIO, etc) is a win.

Plus a win by Trump there is almost certainly a win for James in MI, and probably a win for McSally, dragged over the finish line. Can't hurt her chances that her opponent was spotted in a yearbook as Das Fuhrer himself.

Win in MI plus the win in AL would offset probable losses in CO and Maine. Sorry to see Garder in CO go but he's going out with a vote for Barnett, while he could have said no to try to save his seat (wouldn't work - loss of R support would not be offset by other votes).

Could end up same R 53 Senate as there is now. Would be a hoot - plenty of old judges that will need to retire in the next 2 or 4 years.
 
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