2019 RPI and Bracketology

Crème has us at a #7 seed in his latest bracket. In with UConn as the first seed, which to me looks like the weakest #1 seed. Louisville dropped from #1 to a #2 in the same side of the bracket.

If this version came to pass, we would face off with Louisville in round two before a possible Syracuse and then UConn. Looks to be a pretty tough Albany regional.

Nothing to do for another week except speculate.
 
I still have us as a 6 seed. I actually like our chances against many of the potential #3 seeds in a second round matchup. Of course gotta get out of round one first; if we do end up a 6, will be interesting to see which 11 seed we face in rd one.
 
Monday at 6 PM on ESPN, we will find out where everyone is going.
Crème is only projecting four Big 12 schools, booting out TCU and WVU. Can't see how he puts Tenn in and leaves those two out. I still think TCU and WVU should have a better chance to get in that Tenn with a losing conference record.
 
Crème has been wrong before; and, if any of us were creating a bracket, we'd be wrong a lot, too. And, based on my analysis, Crème really loves the PAC 12 conference, and not the Big 12; perhaps that's fair based on strength of conference.

The committee looks at a lot of variables. So, as at team with an RPI of #30 at the moment, that's indicative of a #7 seed if the committee only used RPI ranking as a factor. What's hurting us the most is lack of "quality" wins. Basically, we beat Iowa State. That's our only win against anyone in the RPI Top 25, which is another factor the committee evaluates.

Compare us to UCLA, who is #32 in RPI. Crème has them as a #6 seed; that's a huge deviation from their RPI ranking. But, in Q1 (quality/quadrant 1 opponents) won/loss record, ULCA is 7-9 (including a victory over #5 Oregon); we are 3-7 in Q1 wins/losses. So, the debate is what it is.

Oregon State is #24 in RPI; would seem like a #6 seed. Crème has them as a #4 seed. Their Q1 record is 7-6.

Kansas State is #32 in RPI; would seem like a #8 seed. Crème has them as #10 seed. Their Q1 record is 2-8 (both wins against us).

So, the Big 12 not being very strong this season, some of which is our fault, is hurting us, and TCU and WVU, who probably aren't gong to be invited to the tourney. For us, the weak non-conference schedule has also come back to hurt us; that was something we could control with better scheduling. When the non-conference schedule was released, several of us knew right away that it was weaker than in recent years, and would hurt our SOS; that's the case now.

For anyone who follows women's college volleyball, Texas has been denied a #1 seed the last 2 seasons mainly because the Big 12 is weaker than it ever has been. Texas scheduled very well in non-conference, but still not enough to overcome the numbers which support the Big 12 as being a weak league.
 
Moooooo said:
Crème has been wrong before; and, if any of us were creating a bracket, we'd be wrong a lot, too. And, based on my analysis, Crème really loves the PAC 12 conference, and not the Big 12; perhaps that's fair based on strength of conference.

The committee looks at a lot of variables. So, as at team with an RPI of #30 at the moment, that's indicative of a #7 seed if the committee only used RPI ranking as a factor. What's hurting us the most is lack of "quality" wins. Basically, we beat Iowa State. That's our only win against anyone in the RPI Top 25, which is another factor the committee evaluates.

Compare us to UCLA, who is #32 in RPI. Crème has them as a #6 seed; that's a huge deviation from their RPI ranking. But, in Q1 (quality/quadrant 1 opponents) won/loss record, ULCA is 7-9 (including a victory over #5 Oregon); we are 3-7 in Q1 wins/losses. So, the debate is what it is.

Oregon State is #24 in RPI; would seem like a #6 seed. Crème has them as a #4 seed. Their Q1 record is 7-6.

Kansas State is #32 in RPI; would seem like a #8 seed. Crème has them as #10 seed. Their Q1 record is 2-8 (both wins against us).

So, the Big 12 not being very strong this season, some of which is our fault, is hurting us, and TCU and WVU, who probably aren't gong to be invited to the tourney. For us, the weak non-conference schedule has also come back to hurt us; that was something we could control with better scheduling. When the non-conference schedule was released, several of us knew right away that it was weaker than in recent years, and would hurt our SOS; that's the case now.

For anyone who follows women's college volleyball, Texas has been denied a #1 seed the last 2 seasons mainly because the Big 12 is weaker than it ever has been. Texas scheduled very well in non-conference, but still not enough to overcome the numbers which support the Big 12 as being a weak league.
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Thanks for the in depth information, Moooooo. I have a hard time with math and numbers so this helps a lot!!
 
Creme has been really wrong....many times....in fact, more often than not I'm afraid. The Big 12 may not have had the highest RPI this year, but it is still a very strong conference. And, top to bottom, perhaps still the strongest. So while we may not be the toughest conference RPI wise (as our league has been more than any other for the past decade), the attempt by some to downgrade us this year is a bit perplexing. Coach A addressed this in her news conference after the TCU contest, which was posted on Texassports. I don't know what's going to happen, or which narrative is going to take hold in the minds of the committee, but I believe you'll see the Horns a 6 seed, and I also believe the Big 12 deserves 6 teams in the tourney. Perhaps 5 is a bit more likely, and yes there are some pushing the notion that all we'll get is 4. Let's see what happens on Monday.
 
Debbie Antonelli has been very vocal about the women's tourney needing to "tweak" it's rationale and not force the top 8 seeds to "fit" the location of the regionals, but instead to go by more an "S" curve like the men's bracket. I believe she pretty much said earlier this season that by giving preferential treatment to UConn (Albany) and Oregon (Portland) it basically compromises the integrity of the bracket and hurts other top teams who take a back seat to those with the geographic advantage.

That being said, I think Notre Dame deserves the #1 overall seed. Baylor after that. Committee seems intent on awarding UConn a #1 seed; so, I guess that last spot is up for debate. I'd award it to Louisville or Stanford, not Miss. State let Crème is predicting as none of their numbers are indicative of a #1 seed, or better than those of Louisville or Stanford in any category.

 
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BabHorn said:
Ah, ye of little faith.
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I remember the trip to Bridgeport in 2008...and I have seen nothing in the past month that leads me to believe the outcome would be any different in that part of the country 11 years later. That second-round game against UConn was nowhere near as close as the 34-point spread might have suggested...

At least I had some good lobster on that trip...
 
There's always a chance, bud. And until the game's over, I will continue to believe the team can work some magic, regardless of what they have done or not done this season.
 
OU was leading UConn 52-48 after the 3Q. Both Texas and UConn have had stronger teams than what we have seen this season. It may sound silly but I would rather face UConn than Iowa State again. I think ISU is peaking at the right time and should do well in the tourney.

If we play UConn, we won’t be favored but we should compete with them.
 
LutherIsMyDog said:
OU was leading UConn 52-48 after the 3Q. Both Texas and UConn have had stronger teams than what we have seen this season. It may sound silly but I would rather face UConn than Iowa State again. I think ISU is peaking at the right time and should do well in the tourney.

If we play UConn, we won’t be favored but we should compete with them.
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Babhorn and LutherIsMyDog, appreciate the positivity. Gonna rope onto it even if I have to be dragged through this tourney.
 
I will say, if Creme’s bracket is accurate, North Carolina will be a very tough opponent. They’ve beaten ND and had close losses against other top 10 teams. It’s certainly no slam dunk that we would beat NC.

Although I have a “glass half full” perspective, I’m also a realist. Hopefully we’ll see more of the gritty attitude that we saw glimpses of in the Big 12 tourney.
 
Big 12 should have at least five teams in and a very good case can be made for six.
Big 12 coaches hope for heavy representation in NCAA field | Hookem.com
The only Big 12 locks to be selected Monday night are Baylor, Iowa State and Texas. Kansas State is probably in. West Virginia and TCU had fine seasons, too, but there is no guarantee the conference will get more than four teams into the 64-team field.

And that rankles Big 12 coaches who believe their league does not get enough national respect.
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Man, sure are a lot of moving parts so far. Can't wait for Monday 6 PM to find out where exactly we will be going. 7 seed sounds about right. Six seed won't be bad, either. As long as we can stay away from the 8 or 9 seed.
 
All #1's and #2's are elite teams; all have great home fan attendance (except maybe Stanford, but still good).

My prediction at the top:

Chicago: Notre Dame / Iowa
Greensboro: Baylor / Stanford
Albany: UConn / Miss. State
Portland: Louisville / Oregon
 
ESPN mistakenly ran the women’s tournament graphics instead of the men’s and we see that Tennessee made the cut as an 11 seed going to Maryland.

Texas is in as a 7 seed vs 10 seeded Indiana going to Eugene in the Portland regional. Will come back with a more educated take on our chances
 
utfannforlife said:
ESPN mistakenly ran the women’s tournament graphics instead of the men’s and we see that Tennessee made the cut as an 11 seed going to Maryland.

Texas is in as a 7 seed vs 10 seeded Indiana going to Eugene in the Portland regional. Will come back with a more educated take on our chances
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Whoa! ESPN doesn't make mistakes like that.

For us, it's about what I would expect.

Saw that UConn is actually a #2 seed with Louisville the #1 seed in Albany.

You see anything else?
 
I can't believe ESPN would have the info this many hours in advance of the selection show. Yeah, they gotta prepare, but this is an example of why you cut it as close to the mark as you can...sh#t happens. Wonder if anyone saw the fate of TCU or WVU?
 
LOL wonder how many message boards are buzzing with this info right now. My guess is all those who care the most about the women's tourney will have gathered all the info they need long before the official announcement tonight!
 
overseasbbfan1 said:
I can't believe ESPN would have the info this many hours in advance of the selection show. Yeah, they gotta prepare, but this is an example of why you cut it as close to the mark as you can...sh#t happens. Wonder if anyone saw the fate of TCU or WVU?
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TCU and WVU out, as expected.

Our opponent, Indiana, was one of the Last 4 In.
 
overseasbbfan1 said:
I can't believe ESPN would have the info this many hours in advance of the selection show. Yeah, they gotta prepare, but this is an example of why you cut it as close to the mark as you can...sh#t happens. Wonder if anyone saw the fate of TCU or WVU?
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The bulk of the work should have been done after last weekend's games. I can't remember if there were any tournaments this weekend or not.

Really not surprising that the brackets are done a day or two prior to the actual reveal date. That is set up for TV purposes, not when the work is actually finished.
 
Now, things being "officially" revealed at 4 PM Central:

BREAKING: The NCAA DI Women's Basketball bracket will be officially revealed at 5 PM ET on ESPN2
 
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