Week 8 Prediction Thread: Texas vs OSU...I'm Your Huckleberry

mb,

I'm agreeing with you. Our early line swings from -2.5 to -6.5, which seems to be a lot of money coming in early on the Horns, while there has been almost no movement in the O/U.

WVU/Tech is another one with Tech going from -4 to -7 and the O/U moving down from opening at 72 to 68.5

There are a bunch of weird numbers on the total betting sheet.
 
I really do think this will be a very high scoring game. And i think our Defense is improving while OSU's D seems to be flagging.
OSU is going to be tough to beat this week. they know that 2 conference losses will likely keep them out of the B12 CC game. They will come out on fire, balls to the wall.
Gundy's comment above has me a bit worried: Quin's "not using his legs." I'm not sure why, but it does. So are they gonna drop more guys into coverage? Or, will they blitz early and often hoping they can get to a QB who Gundy says does "not use his legs." Will it give Ewers opportunities to run for big gains?

So, with that said, I'm predicting the Horns in a very close, nail-biting finish:
Horns 47
OSU 42
In this one, my heart made the prediction, not my head.
 
Last edited:
caryhorn said:
I really do think this will be a very high scoring game. And i think our Defense is improving while OSU's D seems to be flagging.
OSU is going to be tough to beat this week. they know that 2 conference losses will likely keep them out of the B12 CC game. They will come out on fire, balls to the wall.
Gundy's comment above has me a bit worried. Quin's "not using his legs." I'm not sure why, but it does. So are they gonna drop more guys into coverage? If so, will it give Ewers opportunity to run for big gains?

So, with that said, I'm predicting the Horns in a very close, nail-biting finish:
Horns 47
OSU 42
In this one, my heart made the prediction, not my head.
Click to expand...
I love running qbs. they add a dimension that's hard to defend. wish we had one.But if Ewers is a Brady, or a Josh Allen, Mccoy or Rogers then it's OK as long as he can get an occasional 3rd and 5 with his legs.
 
Ok st has injury issues which has to be affecting this line at -6. Their center and top rec were out last week along with others. Sanders is playing with an injured throwing shoulder. There may be some more updates on these later in the week but I doubt it. I’m sure Gundy will play this close to his vest. Then again, they still scored 40 against tcu.
 
The defenses turnaround this year is nothing but miraculous. Worst rushing defense in school history last year. Go look at any type of yards per game or points per game. Texas in top 2-4 of all statistics. Ok state near bottom. My confidence grows as week goes. Have to prove it on the road but I think we get some of Texas’ best ball this week. Pumped for a good game.
 
I still haven't heard news about Spencer Sanders, so I really don't know what to expect from OSU's offense. I'm going to predict based on Sanders being able to go, so...

OSU 34
Texas 31
 
*cracks knuckles and sets to pounding on the keyboard*

Texas vs okie light...5-2 vs 5-1...5-2 ATS vs 4-2 ATS

Okie light is getting points, and a fair number OF those points. However, it seems things have rounded out and most books are calling this 6-6.5. The Over/Under has bounced around as well, and is presently sitting at 60.5, having dropped through the week. On the season, Texas is 2-5 at covering the O/U number while okie light is 5-1 in that regard.

Texas averages 36.7 points and okie light 45.3...defensively, Texas gives up 18.3 while okie light is a veritable sieve giving up 27.8 points per game. Both teams are generally good against the run, with Texas giving up 3.3 YPC on an average of 36 carries while okie light gives up 3.7 on an average of 37 carries. Texas averages 5.0 per carry on their 36 rushes per game, while that other team has been averaging 39 touches and getting 4.0 per rush.

Passing game yielded some interesting numbers. Texas only averages 254 yards per game on 29 attempts (8.8 per pass) while okie light has been averaging 300 yards per game on 38 attempts (7.9 per pass). Defensively, Texas gives up 229 per game, although that was helped by the dysfunctional land thieves only getting ~40 yards in the Red River Shootout. The 229 comes on 37 attempts (6.2 per attempt). Okie light gives up 301 per game on 43 passes, for an average of 7.0 per throw. They ALSO manage close to three sacks per game and have played their last three games against teams that like to put the ball in the air.

Trends to be aware of...for those looking for education since, well you know the caveat I always put in here...

Dogs are 5-0 ATS in the last five of the series. Okie light is 13-1-1 ATS in their last 15 games against offenses averaging less than 13.2 yards per point (Texas averages 11.8 per point). BUT...Texas is 9-1 to the under in their last ten games on the road versus an opponent ranked in the top 25. SOMETHING is going to give here.

Remember that winning records against the spread does not mean a team is winning the game. It only means they kept the games close...although sometimes they WILL pull out a win.

The 13-1-1 against efficient offenses suggests that okie light likes shootouts since an efficient offense (like Texas has) will often put points up quickly. BUT...it can ALSO be an efficient offense with long, clock-chewing drives as Texas showed in some recent games. There are also efficient offenses that rely on the big play but otherwise don't do much. Remember that an 80yd pass for a TD is still going to be, statistically, an efficient offense since they are roughly 11.x yards per point.

Line edge falls to okie light although it seems bettors are preferring the over. 77% of the bets are coming in on the over, although that represented only 38% of the overall handle (money across the counter). The scarier number is on the money line (betting on who will win straight up)...58% of the bets and 78% of the handle is favoring okie light. Spread handle is pretty evenly split at 52-48 towards okie light, although almost 70% of the bets have okie light to cover.

For me, I think this game has the potential to be a scorefest but much depends on whether Spencer is able to play. If he doesn't, then Gundy's kid appears to be the backup...

I don't see this as coming down to a final possession sort of game, but I think okie light covers the six and the game goes over the current total of 60.5.

TEXAS 38
Okie Light- 33
 
UPDATING!!!

I'm hearing enough now to believe Sanders' shoulder isn't all that close to 100%. But his legs are. Also noting the porosity of the OSU pass D.

What does that mean? It means I am increasing my earlier scores, and flipping the victor.

Texas 41
OSU 32
 
TEXAS - 37

40 Y/O man - 31

okie lite will take a knee on 1st and 2nd down to keep Sanders healthy so they can convert 14/15 3rd downs and score 31. But Texas gets the ball with 2 min left and drives the field to get the W. At least that's what I hope, but I'm still scared as hell of what Sanders may do running the ball against the Texas D.
 
Sangre Naranjada said:
UPDATING!!!

I'm hearing enough now to believe Sanders' shoulder isn't all that close to 100%. But his legs are. Also noting the porosity of the OSU pass D.

What does that mean? It means I am increasing my earlier scores, and flipping the victor.
Click to expand...

It ALSO means that the D should be watching the hit against ISU on a non-stop loop. That was a clean, legal hit, and is the ideal way to address a ball carrier with a shoulder injury as you seek to separate the ball from the carrier...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Recent Threads

Back
Top