Week 4: Prediction Thread for Texas vs Texas Tech...Guns Up! Pew Pew

Already made my score prediction.... Card will start.

Just a side hunch, me thinks Horns go into JONES AT&T with a real serious attitude and kick Tceh *** from the the get go!

Overshown comes back: 15:00 - 3rd qtr. with anger, passion and leadership!!!

Gird your loins Tceh!!!
 
Interesting that the line moved to 6.5 even with the news on Overshown. I wonder if we would have seen 8 or 9 had the appeal been successful...
 
LonghornCatholic said:
I'll be making my game prediction today, Friday, at 3pm CST.

Please respect my decision. No interviews.

Thank you
Click to expand...

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Mid-afternoon in Lubbock...winds out of the south and temps in the upper 80's or maybe even low 90's. It's Lubbock, where they never heard of humidity...thus cramping can come on without a lot of notice. This is where it will be nice to have a rested and ready DemO in the second half...

Line has moved again and Texas is now giving 7, with an O/U that remains at 61 (ML for those interested has Texas at -265 and Tceh at +225.

Tceh is more balanced this year, actually averaging the same number of rushes as Texas (33), although they do a lot less with them (3.1 vs 5.2 per carry). They put the ball in the air a lot more though, and if they are chucking it 49 times against Texas, that means more chances for a pick by an opportunistic secondary.

Defensively, Tceh has held opponents to 2.3 yards per rush, but that could be a factor of WHO they played as opposed to being able to shut down the two-headed tandem of Roschon and #DijonMustardson.

I don't believe Sark will put QE at risk, which suggests Card under center. I've not been a fan of his touch on a deep throw, and that could make the winds from the south more of a threat to the passing game than the Tceh defense. I'd like to see Texas build up enough of a lead in the first half so that they can just let the running backs feast and burn clock in the second half, getting rest during those few minutes that DemO is wreaking havoc in those meetings with the Tceh QB.

A trend to know for those who need to know is that Tceh is 13-2 to the over in their last 15 home games against a rushing team that averages more than five yards a pop. And, given the history of these games, 61 seems low to begin with. Texas is 2-1 to the under while Tceh is 2-1 to the over. Texas has covered the spread in all three of their games while Tceh has missed in two of three, which also favors Texas and their 9-3 ATS run against Tceh.

Texas gave up 20 to UTSA including some trickeration factoring in...I suspect they will be alert to that sort of nonsense. But there will still be some cheap points scored because of the insistence on trying to arm tackle. And, alas, the Tceh passing game will result in at least four DPI calls going against Texas.

Wind will impact the kicking game but this is likely only a factor if Sark sends Auburn out to end the half with a 45+ attempt.

My call...Texas covers the 7 and the game goes over. I'm home this weekend, so no funds on the line for me. However, that is how I would have looked to line this one up, with some extra sprinkled on a ML parlay that included Texas.

TEXAS :hookem2: 46
Flying Tortilla Tossers 24
 
After carefully studying Sark’s 2 deep chart this week I had an epiphany that we will handle our business on the Llano Estacado.

Horns- 38

tortilla tossers- 16
 
Despite my attempt at humour regarding Overshowns absence, I just want to reiterate my original prediction:

Texas 37
Tech 24

:hookem2:
 
A thing to remember is Tech QB, Smith is highly turnover prone and stands very tall and vulnerable in the pocket. Must be aggressive and force multiple TOs today. A strip sack and a few picks
 
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