Week 3 Prediction Thread: Texas vs UTSA...Let's Hope We Aren't Wile E. Coyote

images.jpeg 27

images-1.jpeg 40
 
We might not have the offense that competed with Alabama, but I believe we have enough Offense and Defense to send them home with a loss and no OT.

TEXAS - 27
UTSA - 10
 
Took me a while to wrap my head around the injury situation, etc. So my best guess is a solid, if not spectacular win against a game but overmatched opponent.

Texas 31
UTSA 17
 
LonghornCatholic said:
Traylor is going to blitz the heck outta of Card.
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Just remember that, while stacking the line and holding Army and the triple option to less than four yards a pass rush, a non-passing team still got a 77yd and 42yd TD via the pass. Oh, and still found a way to rack up another 180 or so yards through the air...

I'd like to believe Texas speed is MORE than capable of abusing a constant stream of blitz efforts...even an 8-yard dump can quickly become 75+ with Texas speed on the edge.
 
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LonghornCatholic said:
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I never saw the 14 on the Board (and I was AT Circa) so it didn't stay there long but I did buy in at 13.5. It dropped down as low as 11 and was at 12.5 this morning. It is now back to 13, with the O/U now at 61.

I've got Texas in a parlay with a couple of other games that I thought I saw over-reaction, to include the de-frosting of Nebraska coaching and the ALA game. FWIW, I just think that Saban will have his kids frothing at the mouth and they will be playing at least three quarters. And I don't see Scott Frost having been a four-point move even if one accepts emotion as incentive...

I intended to get down more heavily before I left but my Monday lunch decided I needed to be on room confinement for the duration of the trip...feeling better now but still woozy.
 
mb227 said:
Just remember that, while stacking the line and holding Army and the triple option to less than four yards a pass, a non-passing team still got a 77yd and 42yd TD via the pass. Oh, and still found a way to rack up another 180 or so yards through the air...

I'd like to believe Texas speed is MORE than capable of abusing a constant stream of blitz efforts...even an 8-yard dump can quickly become 75+ with Texas speed on the edge.
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I agree. Look for K Robinson to score with speed to the edge, yards after catching a swing pass. Blitzing leaves empty spots on the defense. i think Sark will find those and exploit them. We shall see. Bijon will score and more than once. Worthy will get loose at least once. If jamison plays, look for him to take one to the house.
 
caryhorn said:
I agree. Look for K Robinson to score with speed to the edge, yards after catching a swing pass. Blitzing leaves empty spots on the defense. i think Sark will find those and exploit them. We shall see. Bijon will score and more than once. Worthy will get loose at least once. If jamison plays, look for him to take one to the house.
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Don’t forget JWhitt either in blitz package.
 
It will be nice if our defense can sustain the current level of tenacity, but not sure if that’s possible. With injuries on offense I predict UTSA and Traylor will get opportunities to put up some points. Don’t see us losing this one, though.
 
This week is interesting due to the various injuries and how that impacts the game. You also have some of my thoughts about the game against Army that UTSA played last week.

Both squads come in 1-1, with all four games covering the spread. UTSA tended to barely cover, once as a dog and once as a favorite. Texas covered handily last week as a huge dog against the elephants (who by the way are favored by ~48 against the same ULM squad we closed at 37.5 and beat by 42).

Both UTSA games went over the closing total and both Texas games went under.

UTSA is 9-0 ATS when playing on the road against a rushing team averaging less than 3.6 yards per carry (Texas is at 3.4 after Alabama, and with QE out, we may be considered a rushing team). Meanwhile, Texas has won the last four non-conference home games in which they were a favorite.

Something has to give in a game that sees Texas spotting 12.5 as I type, and with an O/U of 58. The line has seen a three point swing through the week, with it apparently opening at 14 and getting as low as 11 before coming back to the current level at Circa (all line references from me are typically going to be the Circa line).

Defensive numbers suggest Texas should rule the day, holding the two prior opponents to a combined 3.9 ypc (UTSA averages 4.0) and passing of 6.1 (UTSA completes for an average of 7.7 ypc in their average of 30-45-348. Our defensive backfield will get a workout. Also, if UTSA is tossing the ball up that much, a hawkish backfield will have some opportunities to pad the INT numbers.

Offensively, UTSA has gone to OT against Cougar High and Army, giving up 37.5 ppg, while managing 38.0 (meanwhile, Texas is 35.5-15). They can score, but they like doing it through the air. Texas has taken some of the air out of the game with the injury to QE. This means we become run-heavy and make good use of the screens AND the inevitable receiver who SHOULD get open as the Fighting Jeff Traylors blitz Card or whoever is under center.

Special Teams MUST show improvement. We cannot leave points on the field with bad snaps.

Night-time game takes away some of the conditioning advantage that might have existed, but it was likely negligible with the short distance between Austin and San Antonio.

Power ratings and effective strength tend to suggest a margin of victory in the neighborhood of 15 points.

If The University of Texas can get the ground game going, they can control the clock which helps reduce the time the defensive backfield has to spend going back and forth, and a rested defense tends to be a productive defense. I also expect our defense to be motivated after their performance against the former #1 team last week. There are no moral victories, but they won't be satisfied without kicking some Roadrunner tail and taking scalps...

My call: Texas covers and the game goes over the 58. I do have a Texas -12 ticket on this game that was part of a 6-leg parlay, so I have a vested interest in the cover...

THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS: 44
The Fighting Jeff Traylors: 29
 
mb227 said:
This week is interesting due to the various injuries and how that impacts the game. You also have some of my thoughts about the game against Army that UTSA played last week.

Both squads come in 1-1, with all four games covering the spread. UTSA tended to barely cover, once as a dog and once as a favorite. Texas covered handily last week as a huge dog against the elephants (who by the way are favored by ~48 against the same ULM squad we closed at 37.5 and beat by 42).

Both UTSA games went over the closing total and both Texas games went under.

UTSA is 9-0 ATS when playing on the road against a rushing team averaging less than 3.6 yards per carry (Texas is at 3.4 after Alabama, and with QE out, we may be considered a rushing team). Meanwhile, Texas has won the last four non-conference home games in which they were a favorite.

Something has to give in a game that sees Texas spotting 12.5 as I type, and with an O/U of 58. The line has seen a three point swing through the week, with it apparently opening at 14 and getting as low as 11 before coming back to the current level at Circa (all line references from me are typically going to be the Circa line).

Defensive numbers suggest Texas should rule the day, holding the two prior opponents to a combined 3.9 ypc (UTSA averages 4.0) and passing of 6.1 (UTSA completes for an average of 7.7 ypc in their average of 30-45-348. Our defensive backfield will get a workout. Also, if UTSA is tossing the ball up that much, a hawkish backfield will have some opportunities to pad the INT numbers.

Offensively, UTSA has gone to OT against Cougar High and Army, giving up 37.5 ppg, while managing 38.0 (meanwhile, Texas is 35.5-15). They can score, but they like doing it through the air. Texas has taken some of the air out of the game with the injury to QE. This means we become run-heavy and make good use of the screens AND the inevitable receiver who SHOULD get open as the Fighting Jeff Traylors blitz Card or whoever is under center.

Special Teams MUST show improvement. We cannot leave points on the field with bad snaps.

Night-time game takes away some of the conditioning advantage that might have existed, but it was likely negligible with the short distance between Austin and San Antonio.

Power ratings and effective strength tend to suggest a margin of victory in the neighborhood of 15 points.

If The University of Texas can get the ground game going, they can control the clock which helps reduce the time the defensive backfield has to spend going back and forth, and a rested defense tends to be a productive defense. I also expect our defense to be motivated after their performance against the former #1 team last week. There are no moral victories, but they won't be satisfied without kicking some Roadrunner tail and taking scalps...

My call: Texas covers and the game goes over the 58. I do have a Texas -12 ticket on this game that was part of a 6-leg parlay, so I have a vested interest in the cover...

THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS: 44
The Fighting Jeff Traylors: 29
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I appreciate the analysis, but I can't fathom UTSA putting up bigger scoring numbers than Alabama. I have 31-17, and I personally think the safest bet out there is to take the under against a 58 point line. I think bettors in Vegas haven't yet factored in a much improved Texas defense.
 
Sangre Naranjada said:
I appreciate the analysis, but I can't fathom UTSA putting up bigger scoring numbers than Alabama. I have 31-17, and I personally think the safest bet out there is to take the under against a 58 point line. I think bettors in Vegas haven't yet factored in a much improved Texas defense.
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Two critical factors...propensity to get burned trying to make a big 'blow up ESPN' sort of play and the very depth issues discussed in this thread.

I'd like to be wrong on the former, but arm tackles don't get the job done even against a 'lesser' program that has shown it has the chops to hang with the so-called big-boys (to the extent that Cougar High is a lower tier Big Boy). One could say that a late-game effort at an arm tackle was the difference between a win and a loss last week...

I can envision limited play from some of the starters in 2H if the game seems in hand given that they head to Flying Tortilla Land next week for another track meet.
 
Texas 38
UTSA 10

I was thinking this would be closer, but I like the Texas receivers with Wright at QB. That’s what I’m thinking! I expect more Rojo in the wildcat as well. This could be a 45-10 blow out. I’m feeling it about Texas! This is a different team. Pray I’m not disappointed.
 
ProdigalHorn said:
With potentially a third-team QB running the show, this has ugly win written all over it. 24-13 with a backup QB. 30-10 if Card can go with a reasonable level of mobility, 34-10 if we just line up and run the wildcat 70 percent of the time.
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Which one you going with?
 
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