The Status of Realignment – March 2012

My dream would be FSU, GT, ND, and Pitt to get to 14, with Clemson and Miami if we go 16.

I think the SEC scoops VT and UNC when the dust settles.
 
The ACC just became more isolated. Even Tarheel fans are concerned.

The announcement today that the Big 12 and SEC will play a "Championship Game" is further evidence of the identity of the four big conferences and the ACC isn't one of them.

The interesting thing is the the CG will be wholly owned by the Big 12 and SEC. Visions of the future.
 
The announcement that the Big 12 and SEC Champs will play in a bowl game beginning in 2014 makes the Big 12 an even more lucrative destination for disgruntled football-first ACC members. (Can you imagine what the initial reaction was at the ACC headquarters when this news broke?)
 
Some say there's an unwritten agreement in this Big 12 / SEC arrangement, and that is that the Big 12 will back off trying to add Virginia Tech and one other school (widely believed to be NCSU).

Notre Dame talk is also heating up. Might the Domers join a conference? More specifically, might the Domers join the Big 12?

If ND did join the Big 12, then Big 12 thinking with respect to who to add (other than FSU, which is a shoo-in) could recalibrate.
 
X...I think the Domers get to pick one traveling partner if they decide to join the Big XII. My best guess is that partner would be Pitt or B.C.

I agree that FSU is a take, no matter what, and I think Clemson and Georgia Tech, if they want to come, are too. That makes a potential five new members, leaving one more, and a ton of possibilities out there. Miami, I think, has taken themselves out of the running, and I'm not sure Louisville is even still on the list. More and more, because of TV markets and location, I'm thinking the Big XII looks at Maryland, if they don't go B1G, or UNC if they can be separated from Duke.

I'm interested in your thoughts X. Oh, by the way, I'm pretty much conceding Va Tech and NC State to the SEC and possibly Virginia to the B1G if Delaney gets serious about expanding his conference. Like I mentioned too, I think Maryland's in play for the B1G.
 
The so-called "traveling partners" most associated with Notre Dame, according to my observations, are Pitt and BC. So we agree on this, coolhorn.

I guess I can understand Pitt as they are AAU, and ND has played them somewhere around 67 times. I understand BC due to religious heritage and location at the very northern end of the northeastern corridor.

But goodness gracious, what a couple of stinkers!

If the ND rumors are serious, I sure hope we can re-direct the Domers onto Georgia Tech, or Virginia, or Maryland. Even Rutgers is better than Pitt or BC, in my book.

We know that ND's non-football recruiting is heavily centered in the northeastern corridor. That would mean BC, Rutgers or Maryland. Possibly Virginia might be forced into that category as the Cavaliers have inroads into the DC market?

But the football schools and football recruits are in the south.

ND is a very welcome complication, however, and if ND wants either Pitt or BC, then welcome to the Big 12.

But what I'd try to sell to ND would be the following schools:

11. Notre Dame
12. Florida State
13. Georgia Tech
14. Clemson or Virginia

Then stop, or, if you go to 16, then focus on:

15. Virginia or North Carolina
16. North Carolina or Miami or Maryland

Miami would be up to ND, and then only if Shalala committed the Hurricane to remaining in big-time football.

My thought is that ND might entice schools like VA and NC into joining the Big 12 where without ND they would not consider the Big 12.

Personally, I prefer VA over VPI for the long-haul anyway, but mine is certainly the minority opinion. ND would probably love VA though.

Give me a lineup of Notre Dame, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Clemson, and you've got one helluva an eastern wing, IMO.
 
Pitt brings much more than just good academics. They have several national championships, a Heisman trophy, and some of the games greatest players - Dan Marino, Tony Dorsett, Mike Dikta, Larry Fitzgerald, LeSean McCoy, etc.

They would be a great addition in a major market with incredible recruiting grounds. Plus, they are rivals with ND and WVU. The backyard brawl is a great college tradition we could have in our conference.

Pitt would be a great addition to the conference.
 
Pitt would be a great adition, both basketball and football, they arnt a huge draw but if you could get ND onboard if pitt came along its a win win. then FSU and Clemson. In no way would i ad Miami atm who knows if they will have football after santions come. Georgia Tech would be a good regional fit if they were to make a east west division and if you added tech I believe a NC school. I believe Virginia would be out of the question as you already have the market with WV. I could see them adding BC for the reason that Boston is a good market and it would also be a regional fit with Pitt and ND. But ND is a huge if...
 
It's looking like Notre Dame may be done except for the signing of the contracts. HUGE occurrence for the Big 12 if true (and it sure looks to be true). Notre Dame partial at first, but "all in" in 2016? To the Big 12? Wow.

Now let's consider Pittsburgh in more detail.

First, it is true that Pitt has an excellent past. Pitt has one Heisman winner (1976 Tony Dorsett), and ranks 20th in all-time wins (678-493-41). Both are very nice positives.

Further, Pitt counts 9 NCs, which also suggests an excellent lineage. But the most recent NC was in 1976 in the magical Dorsett year with Jackie Sherrill. Before '76, Pitt's other NCs happened in the 1910s, 1920, and 1930s. That is truly ancient history when football was a different game.

Since 1990, Pitt has finished in the Top 25 only 3 times: 19-2002, 25-2004, 15-2009. Pitt has no Top 10 finishes since 1990. Pitt's modern football history is distinctly lackluster and totally unremarkable.

Pitt claims decent gameday attendance at 52,165 for 40th in 2012; however, Pitt pads attendence with free and discount tickets. You can literally buy a ticket on Stubhub on the 40 yard line for $1.00 just hours before gametime.

For you older guys, think about SMU attendance in the late 70s and early 80s with the Pony Express. SMU bused high school students into Cowboy Stadium to pad attendance. I know. I was at the games. This is how Pitt gets its gross attendance up, yet when you look at pictures of Pitt's crowd, there are huge gaping holes across the entire stadium. Google some pictures.

Pitt also has no stadium on campus, which is really a big negative for (lack of) college atmosphere. They play their games at the Steelers stadium, miles from campus, which simply compounds Pitt's attendance issues.

This past spring game, Pitt held its spring game at a high school stadium and drew, maybe, 750 diehard Panther fans to their spring game. Can you imagine 750 fans showing up for the Texas spring game?

Pitt has had some serious glory days. In the past.

I realize the Big 12 targeted Pitt last summer. Thank god they joined the ACC, where virtually all ACC fans openly admit Pitt was added for basketball, not football.

Finally, the Pitt MSA is pretty good: Pittsburgh-New Castle MSA = 2,359,746 (22nd). However, WVU draws equal television viewers, or more viewers, in the City of Pittsburgh than Pitt does. The schools are only 70 miles apart. There certainly is overlap in the Pittsburgh market due to WVU being in the league. In this sense Pitt is a financial drain on the Big 12 since WVU already covers the Pittsburgh market.

Look, if it takes Pitt to add Notre Dame, welcome Pitt Panthers. Personally, however, I hope we can re-direct ND onto some other school, like Georgia Tech.
 
X, very good points. If we go past 12, i think GT is a must. I know Fsu and Clemson cover that market but it is still a different state with some damn good players. GT is very easily accessible bc its a 20 min bus ride from airport. It has great academics, rivalry with ND. Presumibly, the networks will be able to charge a bit more bc even though there are a lot of Fsu/Clemson fans in Atl, they will be able to charge people in 3 different states(FL, SC, and GA). Though SEC is finding out Aggies and Mizzou are worth as much as the 2 schools thought they were.

I like what you are saying about Pitt. I would prefer Maryland bc that really gets both the DC and Baltimore markets. and I think Virginia would be a very good addition also. I would like Pitt over Louisville, who i hope Big 12 didnt make a promise to.

And, yeah, whats the ND news that you have?
 
Lots of links out there now. Means nothing really at this point.

But, this has been Deloss' baby from the beginning. ESPN and Deloss are working this one hard. Deloss won't retire until this issue with ND is resolved either way in the next 2-3 years.
 
A quick question for X, or whoever...IF the Irish choose the Big XII, would they likely push for Pitt, or Georgia Tech, as a traveling partner? I ask because I have a hunch the B1G is gonna come into play for G-Tech. I know the folks over in Atlanta are talking to the Big XII now, something they weren't doing a month ago, but I hear they're really in love with the B1G if they have to leave the ACC. If the Big XII WITH ND as an incoming member offers, I'd think anybody would listen, and I'd love to see Georgia Tech added to the conference.
 
There are three "expansion causing" schools out there.

Notre Dame. We all know this.

Florida State. We all know this.

North Carolina. If you didn't know this, now you do.

I no longer jump to the conclusion that UNC will automatically migrate to the B1G. UNC fans want the south; specifically, the SEC. But if UNC stays "difficult" and misses the boat with the SEC, I think there is an outside shot at UNC for the Big 12 in a year or two.
 
Two things are imminent...Bob Bowlsby taking over as Big XII commissioner, and the conferences meeting to decide the format for a four team championship playoff. I'll be happy for these two pieces of business to be concluded, because Big XII expansion is on hold until then.

Now that B1G commissioner Jim Delaney has come out on the side of the top four teams making the four team playoff, regardless of whether or not one or more is a conference champion, I expect that to be the format chosen. That format wouldn't automatically exclude Notre Dame, so I don't see the Irish to be in a rush to join any conference.

I look for the Big XII to expand by two teams, FSU, and one of Clemson or Georgia Tech. I think Tech might be the more attractive candidate, but I think Clemson is farther along in the process, and nobody knows for sure whether or not Tech is really interested in making a move.

That leads me to the conclusion that sometime before August 15th, FSU and Clemson will apply for membership, be accepted, and give the ACC notice that they're leaving. (...and all of a sudden, the Big XII will be happy with the TWELVE teams in the conference.)

By the way, I loved Bowlsby's quote from last week that he intends that the Big XII will be a very exclusive fraternity that a lot of teams want into, and very few get into. That's a great change of attitude from past years,
 
While many have warned that between June 15 into July there will likely be much disinformation and misinformation with respect to Big 12 expansion, I guess I have succumbed to it regardless of fair warning.

I no longer believe Clemson is in the picture with respect to 2012 Big 12 expansion. While the recent comments of CU's BoT Chairman, Wilkins, can be parsed into nothingness, I personally believe him when he says "Clemson is 1000% in the ACC". Hence, I think Clemson is out for the immediate future.

I now subscribe to the theory that the Big 12 is pursuing a deal so as to yield Florida State and a Notre Dame / Brigham Young hybrid.

My belief may wholly constitute a example of confirmation bias because I am much intrigued by Florida State and the hybrid. If the Big 12 can add the top 2 expansion candidates in the land -- Notre Dame and Florida State -- in a move to 12, I consider that to be a grand slam. Bring in BYU as a "free addition", and you're golden.

I hope it happens.
 
Instead of preferences, opinions, myhths and legends, when will the facts be known about Big XII expansion, if any?
 
BV Horn: Lol.

The BCS playoff will be much solidified at the end of June. We may know something as early as the end of June.

August 15 is the date to notify the ACC if you won't be a conference member for 2013.

Those are your parameter dates. If movement is going to happen for the 2013 season, it will very likely happen in the next 6 weeks or so.

BTW, ND alumni and fans are now discussing a 6-game affiliation with the Big 12.
 
X if you're on the mark about ND considering some kind of six game tie in with the Big XII, then I can see adding only FSU. However, I'm not comfortable with putting any amount of eggs in the ND basket, so I think FSU needs one more traveling partner from the ACC, and I'm still convinced Clemson makes the most sense and would be interested if somebody like G-Tech or UNC isn't interested. I'd love for you to be right about ND, but I'm just not seeing it if the conferences do what I think they'll do and go with the four best teams for a playoff. That leaves a door open for an independent ND if they're ever good enough.
 
I think Xover is on to something IRT Notre Dame. Some of their fans think they will join the Big 12. I'm not sure how true that is but the linked article in very interesting.

LINK
 
The article is spot on that IF ND joins a conference, the Big XII makes much more sense than any other. It's also encouraging that ND fans are finally starting to back off of their hard line stance about independence.

That being said, ND doesn't always do what makes sense to the rest of us, so I think it's smart to let them know the Big XII would welcome them, but not start counting on any ND movement until Jack Swarbrick initiates some conference affiliation conversations.

I think FSU and one more solid ACC program needs to be added to the Big XII in the next month, no matter what ND does. There's still plenty of room for growth IF the Irish want to join up, and going to twelve gets the conference back to a championship game, which brings money and attention at the end of the season, when both are needed. I stand on my previous post that Clemson is still a player in this, despite what that dolt of a coach of theirs said earlier in the week about Big XII membership.
 
It's very interesting reading some of the ND boards. 90+% seem ready to begin the move to the B12, many if not most posters very excited abt it:

"We aren't joining a conference. We're just moving to a better one."

"The bottom line is that unless we are going to schedule multiple cupcakes from the Big 12 (which lets be serious... with that collection of teams it seems downright implausible) then we need to start looking into dropping some rivalry games. The idea of playing Texas, OU, FSU, TCU, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, USC, Stanford, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue and Navy as a schedule is borderline psychotic."

"The Big East is on its death bed, so we need to find a major stable conference for our Olympic sports; and reserving a spot in a major conference ensures access to the CFB post-season for us."

"I would assume we would also be part of their bowl schedule which I think is a good one."

"IrishinFL's FSU source indicates that they're definitely headed for the Big-12 eventually. I'd imagine our joining will give them a big push in that direction; ND will be the biggest domino yet to fall in conference realignment. Once we move into the Big-12, I expect there to be serious movement from all the other conferences."

Also lots of speculation on what other school(s) might join: GT, UVa, VT, and Clem, mostly.

This one thread had almost 1200 posts and over 67,000 views, so there's a little bit of interest there.

irishenvy.com

It was also refreshing not to see any derisive comments towards the B12 in general and Texas in particular. Very good and intelligent fans at our future rival.
smile.gif
 
It's sounding like this coming weekend is going to have some kind of sensational movement regarding Big 12 expansion.

Most all say ND will affiliate with the Big 12, perhaps this coming weekend.

Others say not only will ND affiliate with the Big 12, but both Florida State and Clemson are on board (Clemson back on board), and some kind of strong indication of those two schools will also be forthcoming this weekend.

The water may be beginning to boil.

For those with interest, here is my understanding of the backstory. Today (5-20), the BCS playoff committee reached an agreement in principle: The top 4 teams after the bowl games are played.

Supposedly this BCS agreement persuaded ND to affiliate with the Big 12. ND would have joined the ACC "all in" if Swofford's horse (conference champions only) had been chosen by the committee, but again, that's not what happened. Since ND doesn't have to join a conference "all in", they will leave their BE affiliation for a more prestigious and profitable Big 12 affiliation.

Texas and Dodds has been pressing the ND affiliation. In recent days, Texas got the Big 12 to back off Florida State and Clemson until the ND matter was settled. Clemson got thier feathers ruffled by this perceived slight, and began to get cold feet on the whole move.

FSU did not back off the move, however. The Big 12 mentioned "Louisville" to Clemson to remind CU that CU's leverage was limited, plus FSU acted like they would leave without Clemson (although who knows if FSU was bluffing?). Supposedly Clemson saw the light and is now back on board for a move to the Big 12.

That's the gist of my synthesis of the information out there as of today. Again, some high profile "something" is supposed to happen this coming weekend that may pertain to all 3 schools and the Big 12.

We'll see.
 
Interesting stuff X...your reading of the tea leaves is spot on, I think. I never bought that Clemson lost interest in a Big XII move. I don't doubt they were butt hurt for a bit, but common sense has obviously prevailed in South Carolina. I personally think FSU and Clemson as full members, and ND "affiliated" with the Big XII would be a slam dunk, especially if Georgia Tech also is in the mix somewhere, and that would leave the pickins' slim for the rest of the conferences concerning realignment. Hope you're right about stuff coming down this weekend.
 
X or Cool, does affiliation mean ND would not be a member of the conference for FB but would play about 6 games per year against Big12 teams? I have been out of touch for awhile and lost track of current speculation.

I have never liked ND NOT belonging to a conference. They should compete on an equal basis as all other teams. Since that is apparently not going to occur, I guess this set up is as good as can be expected as long as whatever "Final 4" evaluation method does not include some bogus ND fudge factor that gives ND preferential treatment. Potentially, they will have a Strength of Schedule advantage due to their greater ability to tailor their schedule as an independent...if they decide to use it and SoS is part of the equation for determining Final 4.

Maybe (and hopefully) this will lead to ND joining the B12 when the ND tv contract expires.


Does the affiliation include other sports?
 
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