The Status of Realignment – March 2012

I am suitably impressed with the hiring of Bob Bowlsby as the Big XII's new commissioner. He's a slam dunk, based on his performances as AD at Iowa and Stanford, and he has the media and marketing savvy I hoped the new commissioner would have.

My impression of Bowlsby is that he's a consensus-builder, and I think he favors expansion. Combine those two things, and I think he'll bring the conference together behind a thoughtful plan to get bigger.

It's NOT my impression of Bowlsby that he would settle on a school JUST for the sake of expansion. I think when the time is right, there will be discussions through back channels, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of offers made, and accepted, by schools that right now are claiming to be happy where they're at.

I mentioned in a post on another site that timing is everything in realignment, and right now is NOT the right time for anyone in the Big XII front office to publicly talk about the subject. I would expect the conference to set a timetable of late summer to early fall to begin the first round of realignment moves. Bowlsby strikes me as someone who'll play his cards close to the vest until then.

The bottom line to this? I think the Big XII is in exactly the right hands to become a destination conference...make that THE destination conference, for realignment.
 
I wonder if any of the other ACC football strongholds feel the same as the FSU Trustee. I hope so. I'd offer invitations to FSU, GT, Clemson and ACC-to-be Pitt right now! This would add 4 good football states to the B12 footprint and provide some regional opponents.

Then I would contact ND and see who they would like the B12 to invite in a package deal. Be it Maryland, Rutgers, BC, a B1G team, Navy, whoever.... And let ND know this is a last chance offer. When ND sees the ACC losing major teams, it will realize that they need to join the Big 12 or B1G.
 
I like the cut of your jib on this Big XII expansion business Swoggler...here's hoping folks in the Big XII office are thinking along the same lines.
 
I like and agree with what you are saying but 1) we cant offer to early and give Acc/Sec a chance to give them more options. We need to let the Acc meeting finish next week and also wait for the BCS to finalize the +1 or whatever format they decide to screw up this time.
2)i think 3/4 teams invited (when and hopefully if the time comes) will be Fsu/Clemson/Miami. I think getting to travel into the state of Florida twice the number of times will be big. I would hope the 4th would be GT but there could be a few options. I could see Pitt later on IF ND decides to join.
3)ND will not come to a conference unless it is forced to by the BCS format. If ND get special treatment as the always have, the best you can hope for is all sports other than football come to Big 12 and football agrees to play many Big 12 teams every year.

Patience, lets get ourselves ready to pitch the grand idea and make sure its a deal that those teams cant say no to!!
 
Patience? What is this patience thing you speak of?
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Ok, we can wait until the ACC meeting is over but I would put a bug in some ears prior to it. Let whoever your ACC targets are know that a package offer is available. Maybe work out a 6 team deal including ND and put it on the table.

I don't feel that the B12 can outbid the SEC for individual teams at this time (say FSU or Clemson) but if a package deal is offered, the ACC defectors may go for it to essentially form their own division along with WV and ISU.

That would be a helluva a conference:

UT, OU, OSU, TT, BAY, KU, KSU, TCU

ISU, WV, FSU, CLEM, GT, ND, PITT, (MARYLAND, BC, RUTGERS OR MIAMI)

Note: I put Miami in there to appease some of y'all. It is not one of my favored choices.
 
with or without Miami, that is the ideal Big 12 future i hope Bowlsby is aiming for. That conf would get Sec $ and "benefits"

and oh yeah bugs should have already gone out!
 
I'm thinking a new Big XII east division that looks something like this would be great:

FSU
West Virginia
Clemson
KU
KSU
Pitt
One of Georgia Tech, Miami, Louisville (In that order)
From my lips to God's ear: The Irish

Hey, a man can dream!
 
That means in the west you have:
Texas
Baylor
Tcu
TT
Ou
Ok St
Iowa St.
only 7 teams.

Kansas and KSt need to be in west and move Iowa St to other side.

otherwise, dream scenario.
 
If the Big 12 wants to expand beyond ten teams for the 2013 season, they need to act fast if they are interested in the ACC. Any team exiting the ACC for the 2013 season must give the conference notice by August 15, 2012.
 
Yea, that August 15 date is part of the ACC By-laws.

I tell ya, guys, I'm feeling pretty good about FSU right now. If FSU comes, then Clemson comes as well, IMO.

Question is: Is any other ACC ready to go in 2012? Possibly not. But then the ACC is still reeling from Haggard's comments from last Saturday.

Supposedly both FSU and Clemson have asked the ACC for the exact protocol to withdraw from the ACC.

Supposedly Pittsburgh has initiated contact with informal Big 12 representatives, and Georgia Tech has reinitiated contact with informal Big 12 representatives (which they had long ago broken off).

Supposedly Louisville is completely out of consideration for spots 11 though 14.

While August 15 is the drop-dead date for 2013 play, I think things may come to a head with FSU and Clemson in the next 2 to 6 weeks, possibly as early as the Big 12 Conference Meeting later this May, but more likely after the BCS playoff is finalized.

We'll see.
 
Wow, X! That’s a lot of good and I hope accurate info.
I too think that Fsu is the key. IF they decide to come, we play dominos.
I am glad Louisville is a last option or not an option.

Thanks for that!
 
I tend to agree with X...I think FSU, Clemson, and Georgia Tech get in the Big XII IF they want to make the move, and I'll hedge a little on 14 and say its' either Pitt or Louisville. Pitt may get the first shot, with the 'Ville the fallback choice. I see the 'Ville replacing one of the others in the ACC, which becomes even more a basketball-first conference...if it stays around.
 
FSU, GTech, Clemson and Pitt would be great academic and geographic adds that would certainly boost contract dollars and leave two spots for Miami, VTech, Louisville or... ND. Despite Miami's impending NCAA incarceration, they would add to the football prestige, academics and match up great with FSU, OU, ND. Plus we would have at least several years to shock the U nation.
 
A very informative article by one of the guys who have been on top of it for a few weeks. Brian knew his stuff last summer and appears to know a crap load about it now too.
The Link
 
I think it was Brian Ethridge from whom the Pitt information is attributable.

The most interesting part of his latest article is that he says 10 schools are talking to the Big 12.

He also says various schools have conducted market research studies with respect to their Tier 3 television value.

The list goes Notre Dame first, followed by Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech, with the other schools' rights, such as Louisville, BYU, Pitt, etc., being valued in the $4 million range. We don't know the values of the top 5.

One last thing: Ethridge claims Florida State and Clemson coaches have been told a possible move to the Big 12 was in progress so to be ready in recruiting.

Ethridge appears to have some legitimate sources, best I can tell.
 
That is some very interesting stuff if he knows what he's talking about, and I'd take it you guys trust what he's saying. The part I like best is the teams that are actively looking at what their third tier rights would bring...that's an impressive set of schools. I seriously hope he's right about the instructions given to the FSU and Clemson coaches. I could see that move being made before the end of the summer. I've seen some tweets that Dodds is NOT averse to conference expansion if that's what the rest of the conference wants...and as long as the right schools are added. Oh, and yes, FSU and Clemson would both be considered "right" schools.
 
According to Ethridge: "With 14 teams, expected payouts would be approximately $28 million per school, with another $2 million or so per team coming from a conference championship game. And remember, the schools also have their tier 3 rights - unlike the ACC. Another detail that came to light was that the new ACC contract was backloaded - with members not receiving the $17 million until 2021. The Big 12 deal had a greater rate of acceleration, with schools receiving the $20 million by 2015 - when the rumored ESPN contract would go into effect."

If true, how the hell can cash-starved Florida State say "no" to joining the Big 12 (especially when you add the projected income from Tier 3 rights)?

If FSU and Clemson agree to join within 4-6 weeks, I wouldn't be surprised to see two other ACC football-first universities jump ship as well. If we can get FSU and Clemson to jump ship quickly, one would think there would be heavy pressure for other football-first ACC members to join FSU and Clemson before the August 15, 2012 deadline.

Derrick Brooks Says Big 12 Has Approached Florida State
 
Supposedly Georgia Tech sent out informal feelers to the B1G, but the B1G pushed GT away, due to distance. Supposedly GT is now much more interested in the Big 12, realizing the good ship ACC is taking on water. Others say GT is as cold as ever toward the Big 12.The schools to watch for the Big 12 may be Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh.

Supposedly FSU has told Big 12 reps that FSU intends to apply for membership. Clemson's Big 12 application is supposed to be in Addison already (though I personally doubt this).

Swofford is in a corner and has to swing for the fence. So Swofford is going to back the "Conference Winners Only" option for the +1 in the June BCS meeting to try to force Notre Dame to choose a conference, which Swofford hopes is the ACC.

You've also got this quote today, attributable to Jim Delany: "Tectonic plates are still hot in college football." Meaning the B1G — professing happiness at 12 — is nonetheless monitoring other leagues.

Finally, information may become sparse for awhile because Swofford is suggesting that the ACC might file a lawsuit against the Big 12. It would be frivolous, but league thinking is to cool it for awhile, like Slive did last year for the SEC.

coolhorn: Ethridge's information fits with various other sources, so yea, I personally think the guy's legit.

Santa Fe: FSU won't be able to refuse the Big 12. No way. FSU will be doing the tomahawk chop in DKR-Mem in the near future. In fact, Jimbo Fisher is supposed to be strong for FSU to the Big 12.
 
Xover, i hear the same thing and i think we might have heard it from the same source.
GT might be preferred by Big 12 as #12 bc of Atl market and Academics. Doesnt mean a No to Clemson, but you need # 14. And like X said, Pitt might be that dance partner bc academics and bc of rival of ND.

The key is still Fsu.
 
Just to jump into the speculation...both Clemson and G-Tech have played their cards close to the vest, and I'm not sure anybody knows for sure their intent concerning realignment.

However, if as several of us have heard, Clemson really is close to making the jump, while G-Tech apparently hasn't given any feedback, I don't think it would be smart of the Big XII to play the waiting game with a quality program like Clemson. My sense of things says you take Clemson, and work on G-Tech down the road a bit, Atlanta market or not.

I still feel like the Big XII will expand, to twelve teams this year, and take some time before seriously considering thirteen and fourteen, just to see how other moves shake out. I really don't think the SEC's gonna sit forever at fourteen teams, and the B1G might be getting a little nervous about some potential ACC target schools on the north side of that conference. I do NOT expect the SEC to suddenly decide to add FSU...I can't think of anything that would whiz off Florida, 'Bama, Auburn, and Georgia more than giving the 'Noles an SEC leg up in their prime recruiting area, and I'm pretty sure Mike Slive doesn't want to start any spit fights in the SEC.
 
The ACC's football value was shown during the network negotiations. The result - not on the same level as the Big 12 and SEC. That places the "football" schools on notice that to remain in the ACC places them at a financial disadvantage to the non-ACC schools that they have to recruit against.

FSU and Miami are non-starters for the SEC as Florida will blackball them. Same for Clemson with South Carolina being the reason. GT would struggle in either the SEC or Big 12, but hey, Missouri struggled in the Big 12 and will be a doormat in the SEC with aggy.

Personally I feel FSU, Miami and Clemson would be more trouble than they are worth, but if the Big 12 truly has to expand they will be better than more Big East castoffs. Also, until the college football lords put their foot down and tell the Domers to either get in a conference for football or be out of any chance at the NC, the Domers are going to stay independent.
 
I agree on the Notre Dame point...they might explore some possibilities, and in fact, would be silly not to. However, until it's made clear that there's not gonna be a Notre Dame exception this time around, they will stay independent. If they do join a conference, no matter which one it is, their fans are gonna scream bloody murder and Jack Swarbrick knows that.

Miami is out of consideration. They're gonna downscale their athletics somewhat. The school Prez would like to never hear the terms "The U" or "Thug U" again. They're allegedly gonna concentrate on their academics.

I see zero problems with FSU or Clemson if they join the Big XII. Both are football first schools, and I would think they would relish the extra money they're making and consider themselves, like West Virginia does now, among peers. I think both will be happy campers in the Big XII.

I am curious who teams thirteen and fourteen will be. A lot of people think Georgia Tech, but they sure are staying quiet about this. I hear Louisville is all but a non-starter now, and that Pitt is becoming a good bet to be team number fourteen.

I think if the conference can add FSU, Clemson, G-Tech, and Pitt to what we already have, it will be a pretty salty conference that can hold its' own against anybody, including the sainted SEC.
 
Very interesting...
Take a listen to this... obviously what this guy says has to be taken with a grain of salt, but... most of the things that this guys says makes really good sense regarding the Big 12, FSU, Clemson, G-Tech... AND ND!

PodCast Interview...
 
I've been following the Dude's blog for a pretty good while, and I can say that he's right a lot more than he's not. He's plugged in to West Virginia somehow, and he's getting some good info from whoever his sources are. I don't completely buy into anything I see or hear on the internet, but this guy's percentage of being right is way up there.
 
I'd be shocked if the Big 12 doesn't announce two new members this year for the 2013 season. The big question is: will there be huge pressure to jump to fourteen for next season? If you supposedly have multiple schools interested in joining the Big 12, do you risk adding as many quality teams as you can now, or do you risk waiting and possibly lose them later once the stampede to super conferences mushrooms?
 
I think if G-Tech and Pitt go all in on jumping to the Big XII, the conference goes to fourteen this year. If only three viable teams are out there this year, I think the conference goes to twelve, has a heart-to-heart with number thirteen telling them we want them, and we wait a year to see what plays out before adding two more. Just my thoughts, even if I don't have any assets or big cigars.
 
Notre Dame is the driving force behind how many we take this year. If they make their decision on conference affiliation we very well could be at 16 next year.

I am assuming with the new Big XII/SEC bowl game that VaTech and one other ACC school are going to be scooped by the SEC and the SEC will be at 16 soon.
 
Yeah, I guess it would be hard to turn down Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Pittsburgh as a group (adding two more AAU members to the Big 12 would be a bonus).
 
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