The First 100 days

I agree with Lou.

Not worried by trade deficit but effect on wage rates. It never went up after unemployment went down. That was to follow, but this move puts both in jeopardy.
 
Bad NFP number (almost looks like its missing a zero) but ...
-- The prior month was 304K (revised to +311K)
-- The two month net revision is +12K
-- The Unemployment rate 3.8% (vs 3.9% expected)
-- Avg hourly earnings (monthly) rose +0.4% (vs +0.3% exp)
-- Avg hourly earnings (annual) 3.4% y/y (vs +3.3% exp)
-- U6 underemployment 7.3% vs 8.1% prior

So, the details are better than the headline. The USD initially faded but then recovered.

Periodically there is a big miss in the numbers. You can see it every year or two on the long term chart. January was unusually strong and there was no reason for it. It's all about seasonal adjustments and this time the full panoply of the different unemployment rates tells a better story than the headline. In particular, I like the earnings growth

 
Fastest wage growth in a decade
Somewhat simplistic interpretation = this is the middle class finally winning again

 
Joe Fan said:
Bad NFP number (almost looks like its missing a zero) but ...
-- The prior month was 304K (revised to +311K)
-- The two month net revision is +12K
-- The Unemployment rate 3.8% (vs 3.9% expected)
-- Avg hourly earnings (monthly) rose +0.4% (vs +0.3% exp)
-- Avg hourly earnings (annual) 3.4% y/y (vs +3.3% exp)
-- U6 underemployment 7.3% vs 8.1% prior

So, the details are better than the headline. The USD initially faded but then recovered.

Periodically there is a big miss in the numbers. You can see it every year or two on the long term chart. January was unusually strong and there was no reason for it. It's all about seasonal adjustments and this time the full panoply of the different unemployment rates tells a better story than the headline. In particular, I like the earnings growth

Click to expand...

Snow and winter weather plus people being pensive at start of year given the Dec swoon in market. There is a lag which is why Jan was good.
 
Highest in 10 years

D1JN69mVYAcB_QH.jpg
 
^Interesting to note on the graph above - the downturn toward flat wages started when Obama took office, and the upturn took off when Trump took office. Coincidence? :smile1:
 
HHD
The haters will say it took obama 8 years to turn it around and Trump just happened to be in office when it finally did. The steps Trump took that actually did turn it around don't mean anything.
 
Horn6721 said:
HHD
The haters will say it took obama 8 years to turn it around and Trump just happened to be in office when it finally did. The steps Trump took that actually did turn it around don't mean anything.
Click to expand...
Funny how they blamed all of Obama's woes on G.W. Bush, but the sudden turn around under Trump is all Obama. Took 8 years to overturn Bush's ills, but Obama put such amazing and miraculous policies and procedures in place that Trump had historic economic numbers just fall right into his lap.

Thanks, Obama!
 
You don't need term limits. Elected officials can be removed anytime the electorate doesn't feel like the representative is doing a good job. The issue is the executive branch agencies. They contain people who are not elected. They float into government from interest groups and act on behalf of the interest group not any citizens. Then they float back out to do advocacy and lobby work and make millions of dollars. It is the revolving door.

The best way to check their influence is to terminate departments and agencies with the executive branch.
 
The pattern I see is that when a party loses their political power. They say outrageous stuff in order to blame and guilt people into voting for them to undo the wrong of the current party who is in power.

It happened when GWB was President. It happened with Obama was President. It is happening now.

The out of power party passes legislation they know will never pass to signal their intentions of how to fix whatever perceived problem. Then when they get the power back, they don't pursue any of it. Both parties do it. But what they really want is the power to continue more or less the same policies as before.

The Republicans didn't deliver on most of their key issues when they had Senate, Congress, and President. The Democrats probably won't either.
 
More important than # of millionaires is per capita GDP or median household income, which I believe is higher for the US. Also cost of living is lower in the US overall. No reason to want to be Sweden Bernie!
 
I would also like to know how many millionaires have been created in say last 20 years.
Shows upward mobility is still flourishing here .
 
If you compare who is in the top 20%, 10%, and 1% in income through the last 30 years. There is a ton of turnover. A huge number have moved into upper middle class from middle class. The lower 20% have had more problems. For that the biggest factors are: low skill immigration, Fed monetary policy, Fed Gov regulation, Fed Gov financial policy, Fed Gov licensing/taxing/health care burdens on employers.

The tax burden just got a little better and the economy has responded.
 
Monahorns said:
More important than # of millionaires is per capita GDP or median household income, which I believe is higher for the US. Also cost of living is lower in the US overall. No reason to want to be Sweden Bernie!
Click to expand...

Bernie doesn't want to be Sweden either. He wants to be Cuba or North Korea with (supposedly) free elections.
 
Well, he says he wants to be Denmark or Sweden today, but he praised Venezuela and the Soviet Union in the recent past. Maybe not him but others in his political sphere has claimed that Venezuela has freer elections than the US. He somehow misses the stories of opposition leaders disappearing.
 
What do you disagree with SH? I am pretty confident of the statements I made based on what I have heard him say (and others like him).
 
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