Tesla

[Seattle Husker]

Well, they (including state/local govts) could increase the cost to own and operate by getting rid of the $billions of breaks the manufacturers have been giftwrapped for about 50 years now. Yes, the costs will be passed on to consumers.

We could also double the federal gas tax and our rate would still be lower than every other country in the OECD except Canada. The HTF would also double with it. With that extra $40000000000 from the first year alone, they could start retrofitting existing roads with sensors that would work hand in hand with the sensors on EVs to make everything safer, cleaner, etc.

The oil and gas industry have been getting significant US subsidies for decade as you state. Without them automobiles and gas stations wouldn't be so ubiquitous in American culture. The transition to electric vehicles is happening. Tesla may have been the viable trigger but look at the other American automakers and their commitments to EV. Combustion engines will be classic cars within the next 10-20 years.

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

The oil and gas industry have been getting significant US subsidies for decade as you state. Without them automobiles and gas stations wouldn't be so ubiquitous in American culture. The transition to electric vehicles is happening. Tesla may have been the viable trigger but look at the other American automakers and their commitments to EV. Combustion engines will be classic cars within the next 10-20 years.

I'm treading thin ice on this post because it may be borderline WM, but I think it's an applicable reality. Let's use California as an example who has rolling blackouts every year because their grid is not capable of handling the regular household power demands. How's it going to work out to add an additional 15 million electric vehicles charging demands to their grid every day?

Its because of this and currently unrealistic green energy goals to supply 100% renewable I don't believe combustion engines will be a thing of the past any time soon.

 

[Horns11]

I'm treading thin ice on this post because it may be borderline WM, but I think it's an applicable reality. Let's use California as an example who has rolling blackouts every year because their grid is not capable of handling the regular household power demands. How's it going to work out to add an additional 15 million electric vehicles charging demands to their grid every day?

Its because of this and currently unrealistic green energy goals to supply 100% renewable I don't believe combustion engines will be a thing of the past any time soon.

I think it leans more towards gas staying at a "higher-than-we-want" provider of electricity for the time being while cars transition. Gas is still near 46% of CA's grid, and while efforts are definitely being made to curtail that percentage, it'll hang out longer as an electricity-producing fuel than the powers that be wanted. I think it's far more likely that EV's get a 10 percent jump in road traffic than natural gas gets a 10 percent drop in market share for its part of the grid.

Also, about one-third of CA's green energy is imported. They're still trying to up that rate, too.

 

[Dionysus]

Ford CEO gives employees sobering data about Tesla, challenges ahead

Ford CEO Jim Farley spoke to employees during a recent internal meeting. A few excerpts from the article below (full piece here: outline.com/cRmuMs).

Think about the value creation of Tesla right now. And they have resources, smart people, the Model 3 is now the bestselling vehicle in Europe. Not electric. Flat out. It was the bestselling vehicle in the UK. Most months, it’s the bestselling vehicle in California. Not just electric, but overall. If we’re going to succeed, we can’t ignore this competition anymore.

Look at Tesla, why are they doing what they're doing and what can we learn from them. First, they have a direct model ... There’s no one in between. They make it so easy. Three or four clicks configuring the vehicle with not a lot of complexity to delivering it to the customer. Simple, non-negotiated pricing. A large reservation system as well as remote service.

Tesla maximizes use of electrons in the vehicle. No one does it better than they do. Their customers pay less for a better battery. Their focus ... after they launch the vehicle, their obsession after the launch of the vehicle, to make the customer experience better, to re-engineer the electronic components, to simplify, to address quality based on data coming off the vehicles, to reduce the bill of material based on how people actually use the vehicle, to drive vertical integration, so they do more and they solve the hardest problems at Tesla. And they manage every electron so they can be as efficient as possible with the expense of battery

The product itself is highly differentiated from the rest of the ICE field and complexity is tiny, compared to OEMs," Farley said.

[...] That allows them to have enormous reuse. Reuse that we’ve never seen in our ICE business. Tesla can scale quickly because of that complexity reduction. They can drive cost down, which they have. They can keep processes simple."

Putting a chart on the screen during the town hall, Farley said, "Look at this chart, the market is evolving rapidly towards electric. While we're making progress, and we are, we have a lot of work to do. But our competitors are unbelievable in this space, something we have never seen."

 

[Horn6721]

Are there plenty of charging stations in Europe?
Who paid for them?

 

[Dionysus]

Are there plenty of charging stations in Europe?
Who paid for them?

Tesla builds its Supercharger network. I don't know the financial details but I expect there are local subsidies to promote EV adoption in some places. The charging network is a profit center and Elon has said they would make it available to other EV makers. He expects the network capacity to triple in 2022.

Goldman Sachs estimated that Tesla could make $25 Billion in annual revenue by opening its Supercharger network to others.

Globally there are currently 2,500+ locations with 25,000+ Superchargers.

Tesla Europe Supercharger Network

 

[nashhorn]

Plus don’t forget driving in Europe is not like driving in Texas.

 

[mb227]

The price increases in charging will be SPECTACULAR once Joe gets people hooked on EV. Just like drugs...the first taste is free...

Am still going to laugh my *** off when people find out that a power outage of just a few days leaves them stuck. At least with an ICE, you can go start your car and run it for a few minutes to warm up or cool down (depending on the storm season).

 

[Horn6721]

Not to be stupid but the charging stations I see here in Dallas look free. I don't see a place to insert or scan a credit card
So how does it work?

 

[Dionysus]

Not to be stupid but the charging stations I see here in Dallas look free. I don't see a place to insert or scan a credit card
So how does it work?

If you have a Tesla you already have a card attached to your account for this. When you plug the charger into your car it reads a code or serial number that identifies your vehicle and knows who’s card to charge. This is all managed within the Tesla phone app and/or their website.

I assume other EVs will work the same way when the network is extended to non-Tesla customers.

 

[Horn6721]

I am mainly going on the outlets at grocery stores here. I never thought about it since the stations don't get much use
So when a Prius pulls in they have an specific ID that puts the charge onto a card?
Do you have any idea how much say an hour charge costs.
using an hour as average at a grocery store

 

[Dionysus]

Do you have any idea how much say an hour charge costs.
using an hour as average at a grocery store

I don't know, although I think this info wouldn't be too hard to find online. I don’t have my Tesla yet.

 

[Seattle Husker]

Ford CEO gives employees sobering data about Tesla, challenges ahead

Ford CEO Jim Farley spoke to employees during a recent internal meeting. A few excerpts from the article below (full piece here: outline.com/cRmuMs).

Think about the value creation of Tesla right now. And they have resources, smart people, the Model 3 is now the bestselling vehicle in Europe. Not electric. Flat out. It was the bestselling vehicle in the UK. Most months, it’s the bestselling vehicle in California. Not just electric, but overall. If we’re going to succeed, we can’t ignore this competition anymore.

Look at Tesla, why are they doing what they're doing and what can we learn from them. First, they have a direct model ... There’s no one in between. They make it so easy. Three or four clicks configuring the vehicle with not a lot of complexity to delivering it to the customer. Simple, non-negotiated pricing. A large reservation system as well as remote service.

Tesla maximizes use of electrons in the vehicle. No one does it better than they do. Their customers pay less for a better battery. Their focus ... after they launch the vehicle, their obsession after the launch of the vehicle, to make the customer experience better, to re-engineer the electronic components, to simplify, to address quality based on data coming off the vehicles, to reduce the bill of material based on how people actually use the vehicle, to drive vertical integration, so they do more and they solve the hardest problems at Tesla. And they manage every electron so they can be as efficient as possible with the expense of battery

The product itself is highly differentiated from the rest of the ICE field and complexity is tiny, compared to OEMs," Farley said.

[...] That allows them to have enormous reuse. Reuse that we’ve never seen in our ICE business. Tesla can scale quickly because of that complexity reduction. They can drive cost down, which they have. They can keep processes simple."

Putting a chart on the screen during the town hall, Farley said, "Look at this chart, the market is evolving rapidly towards electric. While we're making progress, and we are, we have a lot of work to do. But our competitors are unbelievable in this space, something we have never seen."

That's a good summary for why Tesla's valuation is what it is. They've reinvented a business model all the way through the manufacturing, sales and customer service elements of the business. It's so radically different that the advantages they have over the existing manufacturers are incalculable. Ford might be better off founding their own competitor rather than try to reinvent itself. Too many anchors like car dealerships, OEMs and unions to battle.

 

[Driver 8]

Am still going to laugh my *** off when people find out that a power outage of just a few days leaves them stuck. At least with an ICE, you can go start your car and run it for a few minutes to warm up or cool down (depending on the storm season).

Did an electric car pee in your Wheaties or something? I don't understand the animosity you keep spouting about it

 

[mb227]

Did an electric car pee in your Wheaties or something? I don't understand the animosity you keep spouting about it

Simple...it is not the sunshine and roses solution people make them out to be. And those shoveling the EV as some ideal solution never like to discuss the dirty aspects of it or that it requires a functioning grid that, even in places like Commifornia, is clearly not up to the task of even half the population having an EV.

 

[Dionysus]

those shoveling the EV as some ideal solution never like to discuss the dirty aspects of it or that it requires a functioning grid that, even in places like Commifornia, is clearly not up to the task of even half the population having an EV

If a huge number of people bought EVs right now that would present some infrastructure challenges, for sure. Fortunately, that’s not how the adoption of new tech typically goes—as adoption increases, supporting systems are being built out as well.

But this is a common argument against new technologies: it’s not mature today, therefore it will not work. The same things were said about computers, the internet, etc. It’s usually a mistake to assume that the current state of innovation is its final state.

TL;DR: it might work out, give it a minute!

 

[Vino Bevo]

Interesting story this morning on the negative environmental impact of lithium mining. There’s more to solve than just rolling out more of them.

 

[Horns11]

Plus don’t forget driving in Europe is not like driving in Texas.

Sure, but the average amount driven in a day by an American who commutes to work is 50 mi. Which takes about 12 hr of charging on a standard 120V outlet with no fancy add-ons... in other words -- overnight.

I get that ranchers and people who travel much longer daily distances for their jobs won't be able to adopt this immediately, but like Dion said, innovation won't cease right now.

 

[mb227]

Interesting story this morning on the negative environmental impact of lithium mining. There’s more to solve than just rolling out more of them.

They ALSO need to resolve how people are going to afford them AND do something that isn't kicking thousands of dollars in tax incentives to buy them.

 

[Horn6721]

Maybe let the free market evolve at its own pace instead of forcing it with taxpayer money. It will happen much more efficiently and with fewer issues.

 

[Driver 8]

Interesting story this morning on the negative environmental impact of lithium mining.

As compared to the positive environmental impact of fossil fuels

 

[Seattle Husker]

They ALSO need to resolve how people are going to afford them AND do something that isn't kicking thousands of dollars in tax incentives to buy them.

The Tesla Model 3 starts at $43,990 before tax incentives. That's a bargain given the quality of the vehicle, technology on board and is likely a major reason it's the #1 care in Europe currently.

 

[Chop]

Tesla in Europe = largely nuclear and natural gas powered cars. Some coal and liquid petroleum powered cars.

Tesla in US = mostly coal and natural gas powered cars, some nuclear powered cars.

That electricity isn't some "clean" "green" stuff that magically comes out of a unicorn's butt. The vast majority of the electricity that charges Tesla batteries is generated from steam-spun turbines (a small portion may be wind or solar; a decent portion may even be hydroelectric out West or near Niagara Falls). The steam generators are heated by a heat source. That heat source fuel could be nuclear, coal, natural gas, liquid petroleum, etc.

This technology is a big part of the future and the now. Tesla is really going places. But nobody kid yourself for a second by thinking this does away with fossil fuels. Fossil fuels were burned to generate the electricity for these electric cars.

 

[Chop]

This should start making some sense soon for population-dense areas, where drives are short(er), and charging stations are readily available.

 

[Vino Bevo]

As compared to the positive environmental impact of fossil fuels

Agree 100% Driver, and not trying to say one is better or worse. Just saying there isn't an easy and clear solution. At least from what I have seen and heard there are many that propose electric is just that.

 

[mb227]

The Tesla Model 3 starts at $43,990 before tax incentives. That's a bargain given the quality of the vehicle, technology on board and is likely a major reason it's the #1 care in Europe currently.

That isn't a bargain for the families who can barely afford a 20yo hooptie...

Or...are the poors lying about not being able to afford basic expenses?

Oh, and who finances the replacement battery pack for them five to seven years down the road?

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

As compared to the positive environmental impact of fossil fuels

The TVA plant where my dad worked his whole life emitted virtually zero pollution for the last 25 years, They had scrubbers installed on the smoke stack in the 80's and it released only steam out the top but they shuttled the plant and imploded it anyway because nasty fossil fuels.

I have no idea how much pollutants come from the average fossil fuel plant but I would assume most were converted similar to this one years ago.

 

[Driver 8]

Agree 100% Driver, and not trying to say one is better or worse. Just saying there isn't an easy and clear solution.

You're right, I was just being a wise ***, please pardon the tone
I agree with you, the "green" thing is very complex

 

[Dionysus]

who finances the replacement battery pack for them five to seven years down the road?

Point me to the data on Teslas requiring a battery replacement in this, or any, time frame

 

[Horns11]

That isn't a bargain for the families who can barely afford a 20yo hooptie...

Or...are the poors lying about not being able to afford basic expenses?

Oh, and who finances the replacement battery pack for them five to seven years down the road?

If your argument is that transitioning to EVs is supposed to be cheaper, then I guess you really haven't followed any tech/innovation transition in modern history. I can pull up ads for Apple II's that cost $2999. But everyone knows what happens to those price points as time goes on.

And if you honestly believe that the Tesla battery needs replacement in 5 years, which would be for someone who uses it 80K mi/year on average, then I'm not sure what literature you're using.