North pole to melt this year?

[UTChE96]

Did the North Pole melt yet?

 

[pasotex]

about half way there

the trend is what matters so it is a little less than half way there

 

[Uninformed]

The volume of sea ice in the Arctic has increased in the past year, compared to previous years.

New satellite data measured almost 9,000 cubic km of ice at the end of this year's melt season, 50% more than at the same point in 2012.

The increase could be good news for the Arctic region, as the amount of ice there, has declined in recent years.

A colder summer and more older ice being retained could both be contributing factors in the increase.


BBC articleThe Link

 

[pasotex]

and what is the overall trend?

is the volume back to 1979 levels?

rinse, wash, repeat

 

[pasotex]

In reply to:

---

---

 

[pasotex]

And lots of science on the long-term trend:

The Link

For your next trick, you will attempt to change the time frame to some geologic interval that is both irrelevant and a distraction.

rinse, wash, repeat

 

[zork]

,

 

[pasotex]

a quick note on your top chart (the scale on the bottom one makes it difficult to discern a trend although you can tell where it is more below the line than above)

the average arctic sea ice extent went from 8 million square kms to about 5 million sq kms between 1979 and 2012 (it was slightly below 4 million sq kms in 2012 but this was well below the average trend)

meanwhile the average Antarctic sea ice extent went from 3 million sq kms to about 3.7 million sq kms (I am extrapolating from your graph and memory so I may be a bit high)

this math is pretty easy and the net is significantly negative

additionally, Antarctic (most ice is land ice), Greenland, and glacier ice volume is trending down

nevertheless, you get people claiming the earth is not retaining more heat

very nice source on the top chart - I like the guy's blog

 

[Uninformed]

According to Zork's chart, there is a large dichotomy between what is happening in the southern and northern hemispheres. There is no doubt that arctic ice has declined dramatically from about 1988 until last year. This year there was a rather large change in the trend. Based on the trend line, one would expect to see a huge drop in arctic ice. However, what happened was an even greater growth in arctic ice. Since we are talking about short-term trends, it is totally unclear what will happen over the next 5 years. Was this past year an anomaly or will the growth in arctic ice continue? Only time will tell.

 

[pasotex]

Well, your user name is apt. The trend for the last 35 years should be rather obvious. A single year does not alter this.

Have you ever taken a college level science class or statistics?

 

[pasotex]

BTW the huge "increase" in 2013 was barely above the 30 plus year trend. This is because it was an "increase" over the 2012 record low which went well below the trend.

The polar ice is melting and will be gone in the summer in probably 20-40 years.

 

[Uninformed]

In reply to:

---

---

 

[pasotex]

This dovetails nicely with the anti-science thread. You do realize that the overwhelming majority of the true experts think you are not only wrong, but dangerously wrong?

 

[Uninformed]

Please feel free to copy my comments from 1/29 on the science thread and paste them here.

 

[Monahorns]

Interesting article on this subject.

quadrant.org.au/magazine/2014/01-02/fundamental-uncertainties-climate-change/

 

[mop]

Interesting to see how much the Arctic recovered over last year according to Cryosat data. I must say, I am very surprised. I knew we took a step in the direction of recovery, but not this big of a step.

Cryosat data shows a 50% recovery of sea ice volume over last year....

In reply to:

---

---

 

[mop]

In reply to:

---

---

 

[Uninformed]

In reply to:

---

---

 

[pasotex]

wrong

 

[pasotex]

The "recovery" is from the record low extent and volume in 2012. The long-term trend is unchanged by this.

You can see on this thread mop making the same inane argument about one year meaning things are springing back or reversing the trend (I think it was in 2010 or maybe 2011 - you are welcome to find it).

Science and statistics do not work like this. The earth is retaining more and more heat because of a known issue. The statistical trend is robust and easily testable.

It is ludicrous to make any claim based on a single year when you have a statistically significant trend over 35 years traceable to known physical issues.

 

[Monahorns]

paso, I think we all agree what the trend is. There is still the possibility we have hit the inflection point. Time will tell.

 

[pasotex]

I do not think one side agrees on much of anything other than trying to obfuscate and constantly move the target.

On what scientific, physical, or mathematical basis would you claim that the downward trend will change?

What physical attribute of the atmosphere or its heat source has changed?

When will equilibrium be reached?

 

[Monahorns]

paso, you're the only professional climate scientist commenting in this discussion, so I can't answer your questions. My statement is merely empirical.

I think you have mischaracterized those with whom you disagree on this issue. I don't think anyone doubts the longterm trend. There are only statements that something different is occurring over the last 17 years. That's not the same thing.

 

[pasotex]

I am not a climate scientist. I do read papers and material written by climate scientists which I believe is necessary to have a semi-informed opinion in this area.

This thread concerns the 35 year trend of a melting arctic summer ice cap including a record low extent in 2012.

There is no pause.

There also is no pause in global heat retention.

 

[Bevo Incognito]

In reply to:

---

---

 

[Monahorns]

I think he does but he just focuses on the last 17 years. It's a significant event we should all think about, but we have to keep the previous 50 years in mind too.

 

[pasotex]

Cherry picking is so inane.

 

[mop]

it really is exhausting having to repeat myself ad nauseum. i have never questioned the long term trend. but the awkward fact for those of you who like to trump the trend (particularly the global temperature trend) is that it has been more or less steady for 170 years. I merely point out that in the middle of mankind's greatest contribution of CO2 to the atmosphere, the global temperature trend is flat for 17 years. Not only is this surprising to me, it is surprising to the 73 primarily climate models as well. not one of them predicted this. That is a problem. Furthermore, the Arctic ice has been steadily trending downward since we put satellites in space, but there is good evidence that it is cyclical. we happened to put the satellites up right as we were ending about 35 years of flat to cooling temperatures, then we subsequently began warming rather rapidly for 18 years. it is not surprising that the arctic ice has trended downward. what will be interesting to see is what comes next.

 

[pasotex]

This is utterly false. Why do you keep lying?

In reply to:

---

---

---

 

[pasotex]

And to add just a little common sense to this thread (and very basic physics).

How has the arctic ice continued to shrink with 2012 being a record low extent when the atmosphere (ocean or planet) has not warmed for the past 17 years?

Where does the heat come from to continue to melt it?

This is a joke and so are you and Watts. You intentionally pick a date with 1998 at the front end in order to distort the data. This does not work any more.