NFL Draft

I_Dont_Exist said:
The NFL doesn't evaluate players based on team success.
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IDE, the point is that the NFL does not do a stellar job of evaluating talent. If they did, we wouldn’t have seen so many high level QB misses like JaMarcus Russell, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler, Andre Ware, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington...need I continue? Then there’s the greatest QB of all time that was a 6th rounder.

To some extent the League is all about measurables. It’s not a perfect metrics system and I expect that LJH will be just the latest example of a (soon to be) proficient player who wasn’t drafted because of NFL’s fixation on measurables.
 
dukesteer said:
IDE, the point is that the NFL does not do a stellar job of evaluating talent. If they did, we wouldn’t have seen so many high level QB misses like JaMarcus Russell, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler, Andre Ware, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington...need I continue? Then there’s the greatest QB of all time that was a 6th rounder.

To some extent the League is all about measurables. It’s not a perfect metrics system and I expect that LJH will be just the latest example of a (soon to be) proficient player who wasn’t drafted because of NFL’s fixation on measurables.
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Well I can't really argue with that. However I do think QB is a different animal than every other position.
 
Poage caught 145 passes in the NFL. Not near as many as Metcalf or Roy, but enough to be among our top NFL-bound receivers of all time. If that's saying anything. I think Marquise Goodwin is on track to pass him this coming season.

I_Dont_Exist said:
The NFL doesn't evaluate players based on team success.
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Kinda general. I think some GMs do and some don't. Trent Richardson is a good example. And VY. There are far more misses than hits in the draft, and it's tempting to take kids from bigger, more successful schools who get more TV time. Guys like Shack and Wilbon will start to reap some benefits of that in 2019. I doubt that either guy is Top 10 at his college position, but it'll sure seem like it to some teams in late rounds.
 
Chinstrap said:
Perhaps the speed issue, or lack thereof, and many of his yards were after contact and that will be harder to come by in the NFL?

I am betting on him doing well.
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4.78 or whatever he ran is just not NFL speed at WR. If he could bulk up to 240 he could play TE in NO's scheme. He played inside quite a bit here so it might be a natural position change for him. He needs to at least get to a 4.6 to play outside in the NFL. He'll never get any separation at his posted speed.
 
I knew Ray played some TE in the NFL. but not in college. I considered Ray a good friend for some 20 years, but never knew he caught that many passes.
 
BevoJoe said:
Here are the Longhorn UFA's I know of:

Gary Johnson, LB - Kansas City Chiefs
Calvin Anderson, LT -- New England Patriots
Chris Nelson, DT - Pittsburgh Steelers
Andrew Beck, TE - New England Patriots
Lil'Jordan Humphrey, WR - New Orleans Saints
Davante Davis, CB - Seattle Seahawks
Patrick Vahe, LG - Baltimore Ravens
Breckyn Hager, DE - New York Giants
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- Johnson should make it somewhere in the league if KC doesn't work out
- Anderson should make someone's practice squad at least
- LJH should make the Saints' practice squad (there is a reason he wasn't drafted)
- Davis should make the Seahawks' practice squad at least (hard to gauge him because he took so many plays off - that doesn't work in the NFL)

The rest - less than 50/50 chance they make at least a practice squad
 
ViperHorn said:
hard to gauge him because he took so many plays off - that doesn't work in the NFL)
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Worked well for Mario Williams, who took of plays, series, and quarters. Of course the idiots in Houston's front office never let little things like film review and talking to coaches whose teams schemed around him get in the way of wasting picks.
 
SabreHorn said:
I'm not sure Ray Poage ever caught a pass in college or with any of the three NFL teams he played for.

Ray was, however, a good enough RB that he was featured of the cover of Life magazine.

BTW, George Sauer, Jr was younger than Ray, and I believe the Jets drafted Phil Harris as a WR rather than RB or DB.
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Sabre, reading your posts is like reading Harvey Penick's Little Red Book. And I mean that as a high compliment!
 
My take is that these kids have stars in their eyes and agents blowing smoke up their rear ends. Some who could have made it by waiting another year will probably never have that chance. It’s all about the shinny new object in the NFL*, and they never again will be.

* Exhibit A: Murray
 
ViperHorn said:
- Johnson should make it somewhere in the league if KC doesn't work out
- Anderson should make someone's practice squad at least
- LJH should make the Saints' practice squad (there is a reason he wasn't drafted)
- Davis should make the Seahawks' practice squad at least (hard to gauge him because he took so many plays off - that doesn't work in the NFL)

The rest - less than 50/50 chance they make at least a practice squad
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I agree with you Viper. General rule of thumb, in the past at least, was guys taken in the first 3 rounds were safe as far as making the team that drafted them. The bottom rounds had to work a lot harder to impress the coaches to make the team or might be traded. The UFAs have an uphill battle unless they are a specialist like a punter or place kicker or can make a special teams position. Not impossible, but some, if they work hard can, like you point out, make the practice squad or might be traded.

Leaving after a junior year can, and often does, have drastic effects on a kid. But they appear to analyze it as, "I'm a starter and had a great year," scouts and agents tell them they will be a 3rd or 4th rounder and make really good money, and other things that lead them to believe they will make a team. Hell, the agent takes a chance, but if one doesn't make a team, he has a number of others that do and they make their money on them. So, a kid leaves early, doesn't make it, what can he do? Can't go back for his last year, that's gone, may not have funds to finish college, that's gone too. No degree means he won't be hired as a coach the the jr. high or high school level, so coaching is generally out. It's rather bleak.
 
dukesteer said:
My take is that these kids have stars in their eyes and agents blowing smoke up their rear ends. Some who could have made it by waiting another year will probably never have that chance. It’s all about the shinny new object in the NFL*, and they never again will be.

* Exhibit A: Murray
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While some of these UFA's and late round picks may get some playing time, it is also likely that some of these young men have played their last down of competitive football. They could have stayed put and enjoyed another season of college football and then tested the NFL waters.
 
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dukesteer said:
IDE, the point is that the NFL does not do a stellar job of evaluating talent. If they did, we wouldn’t have seen so many high level QB misses like JaMarcus Russell, Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler, Andre Ware, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington...need I continue? Then there’s the greatest QB of all time that was a 6th rounder.

To some extent the League is all about measurables. It’s not a perfect metrics system and I expect that LJH will be just the latest example of a (soon to be) proficient player who wasn’t drafted because of NFL’s fixation on measurables.
Click to expand...
Yep, it certainly seems the NFL is fixed on measurables, and it's been that way for a while.

John Madden took the opposite approach as an NFL coach on draft day. He would work himself ragged watching countless hours of film of potential draftees and make his picks solely based on film/performance on the field. He said he didn't care what someone's 40 time was or how much they could lift in a weight room. He could tell if they were fast enough (functional football speed) and strong enough (functional football strength) by watching lots and lots of film.

76.3% NFL winning percentage. Super Bowl champion. Just saying...

He also told a story of how he was a young assistant Junior College coach and went to a day-long football coaching seminar by Vince Lombardi because he had to. He thought he already knew everything and it would be a big waste of time. After watching Lombardi lecture at a chalkboard for over 8 hours on only one play (the power sweep), Madden said he walked out of there realizing that (in his own words) he "didn't know sh!t."
 
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Yeesh.

I think if you consider about 75-90 percent of that list, it was more a matter of "I'm getting out because I want to get out and putting my name in the Draft makes it look like I'm taking my talents to the next level." I think Humphrey knew the risk that he wasn't a likely top-three-rounds kind of guy, and he was totally fine being signed to a FA deal.

Very few of the guys on that list are "surprised" by not being drafted. Think of it as a Malcolm Williams type of scenario. He wanted out so he got out, but he did it at a time when he couldn't just up and enter the draft.
 
dukesteer said:
My take is that these kids have stars in their eyes and agents blowing smoke up their rear ends. Some who could have made it by waiting another year will probably never have that chance. It’s all about the shinny new object in the NFL*, and they never again will be.

* Exhibit A: Murray
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Some have family to take care of.
Some aren't going to make the grades.
There are any number of reasons a kid leaves early and tries to make the money.
 
Well, I'm just happy we had what we did have drafted; unlike 2014
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That draft and things like JaMarcus Russell are why people should not put so much stock in the draft. Adrian Phillips came out that year, was not drafted and made the pro bowl last year with the Chargers. Jackson Jeffcoat was not drafted and ended up starting for the Redskins, but had his career cut short with injuries. Trey Hopkins was not drafted and ended up starting two seasons for the Bengals. It would be one thing if only one of those guys made it, but the fact all three ended up starting at some point (and Phillips ended up all-pro) demonstrates the problem was not that Texas did not produce NFL talent that year.

I do not think Humphrey coming out early was the right call on his part. As far as not getting drafted and having to break into the NFL the tough way, it reinforces it was not the right call.

That said, NFL scouts/GMs notoriously make a lot of bad picks and a lot of guys who are not drafted have great pro careers. The draft is not the end all/be all of judging talent. I could certainly see Humphrey having a good pro career like Adrian Phillips.
 
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Humphrey was told not to declare, but he did on the basis that his big issue was lack of speed which another year in college would do nothing to help him there. Peyton knows the passing game so I believe he ended up in the best place possible under the circumstances. (One could argue that the Saints saw the non-interest and gambled on him falling out of the draft.) If he works hard and makes the roster, the relative small CB's in the NFL are going to have a real issue with him.
 
KBBAKER said:
Speed. If you don't have a certain "NFL" 40 time, stay in school. Plain and simple. All college receivers can catch the ball. Speed is the difference maker.
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Not to nit pic, but I've watched college football longer than most posters have been alive (Sabre and oldhornfan excluded :yes:) and I have seen many, many college receivers who were very inconsistent catching the ball. Not someone you'd want to depend on for 3rd down or a fade "jump ball" in the end zone, or a back shoulder throw in a two minute drive.

LJH doesn't have great speed, true. He's very young, true. On the other hand, he has great size, he gets open, catches the ball in traffic, can get the jump ball over the smaller DB, and is tough to bring down. And cornerbacks in the NFL aren't known for their tackling ability.

Shawn Peyton will give Lil Jordan a shot. He'll put him in situations that will allow him (and his team) to succeed. And importantly, Breeze will deliver the ball where it needs to be. LJH was clutch for the Horns, and he may be for the Saints.

We all know the names of many ufa who made it good in the nfl. Two of my favorites are Tony Romo and Drew Pearson. I don't know if Lil Jordan will make the Saints and have a decent career. But I'm rooting for him big time. I hope he makes us as proud of him at the next level as he did at this one.
 
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Htown77 said:
That draft and things like JaMarcus Russell are why people should not put so much stock in the draft. Adrian Phillips came out that year, was not drafted and made the pro bowl last year with the Chargers. Jackson Jeffcoat was not drafted and ended up starting for the Redskins, but had his career cut short with injuries. Trey Hopkins was not drafted and ended up starting two seasons for the Bengals. It would be one thing if only one of those guys made it, but the fact all three ended up starting at some point (and Phillips ended up all-pro), demonstrates the problem was not that Texas did not produce NFL talent that year.

I do not think Humphrey coming out early was the right call on his part. As far as not getting drafted and having to break into the NFL the tough way, it reinforces it was not the right call.

That said, NFL scouts/GMs notoriously make a lot of bad picks and a lot of guys who are not drafted have great pro careers. The draft is not the end all/be all of judging talent. I could certainly see Humphrey having a good pro career like Adrian Phillips.
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Metrics, metrics, metrics. We want to make decisions based on them in all areas of business today. It is like the difference in a true artist and one who paints by the numbers.

There is still an intangible that makes some football players great. I always go back to the likes of a Ray Berry as an example......a great receiver with bad vision and slow afoot.
 
Chinstrap said:
Metrics, metrics, metrics. We want to make decisions based on them in all areas of business today. It is like the difference in a true artist and one who paints by the numbers.

There is still an intangible that makes some football players great. I always go back to the likes of a Ray Berry as an example......a great receiver with bad vision and slow afoot.
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Great point, Chin. Numbers don't require judgement and reasoning. They just are what they are and there is a comfort zone there. Character, heart and the burning love of the game and competition and much harder to assess
 
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