May/June/JULY Football

This is a banner year for wide receiver recruits, in the state of Texas.

You can bet that Texas will get it's fair share.
 
Can Strong Pull Off A Long-Term Rebuild
In A Short-Term World?

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Because [being Texas' head football coach] is such a high-pressure job, and because you're NEVER supposed to have to rebuild at Texas, we have been waiting on Charlie Strong to simply flip a switch.

It doesn't work that way. Strong was brought in to change a stale program. For all of his recruiting rankings and CEO-type strengths, Mack Brown had let his roster grow undisciplined. Hiring Strong was the "dating the opposite of your ex" move, and while those can work, they don't work overnight. They usually don't work within two years.

Strong sent a lot of players packing when he arrived, and a few more left of their own volition. That created a young, thin squad that played inconsistent football. A redshirt freshman quarterback averaged 16 pass attempts per game, freshmen and sophomores rushed 24 times per game, were targeted with 10 passes per game, started 25 games on the offensive line, and accounted for 33 tackles per game on defense, 53.4 percent of the defense's total.

Of course a team that young is going to be inconsistent. That the good moments were as strong as they were could be a tremendous sign. Plus, Strong just signed another excellent recruiting class (that is to be expected at Texas, but we're taking "Texas" out of the equation for a second), and his offensive shake-up could be viewed as the simple righting of a wrong.

Strong told reporters this spring that he should have moved toward a Big 12-style spread offense all along. I'm not sure I agree -- there can be great value in zigging when others are zagging, especially when your background has made you less adept at zagging -- but at least the defense gets to practice against the type of offense it will see in the fall.

If you look at this as a rebuild and not as Texas attempting to reassert its dominance, it appears to be humming along nicely. If the offensive identity settles in, and a defense that was desperately young gels a bit further, you could be looking at 2017 as a time when all the pieces click.

If Strong gets a fourth year, that is.

There have been two themes to every Texas preview I've written since 2011:
  1. Texas seems to have the pieces you need to turn things around.
  2. I have no idea if the Longhorns will turn things around.
For a couple of years, it looked like the turnaround was well underway. And then it wasn't.

In a vacuum, I would say Strong's project is unfolding at a normal pace. Last year's freshmen and sophomores are now sophomores and juniors, the staff changes on offense might result in an offensive identity, and last year's high-upside moments had an awfully high upside. Given another couple of years, he could have everything he needs, where he needs it.

But that requires another couple of years.

[Long 10-point SB-Nation article worth the read]
 
I saw a post yesterday stating that Humphrey was up to 220 pounds already hope they let him play WR instead of TE
 
BevoJoe said:
WOW! Any of us mess up like that in our jobs, and we're off to the unemployment line. That guy gets a promotion. How does this work now?
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The conspiracy theorist would say that he was being rewarded for doing some dirty work for his bosses. Now the NFL can count on him for some calls in an important game down the road.
 
Nothing will happen to Westbrook. He may have to sit out the first half of a meaningless game, but that's about it. Just my opinion.
 
Joe Fan said:
ND -6

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How in the world are we only six-point underdogs. I get we improved from that first game last year, but wow...

Joe Fan said:
What are the odds he will be available about the second Saturday in October?

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Stoops: "We take this kind of thing very seriously at Oklahoma, and we're going to make sure our kids know that this behavior will not be tolerated, and we won't play favorites. That's why we're suspending him for *whispers to assistant - hey, how many games do we play before conference?* four weeks. That's right, he's sitting for an entire month, so he'll have plenty of time to... *what??? OHIO STATE??? Awww crap...* Oops, sorry, I meant to say TWO weeks. That's right, a whole half month. And to show we're really serious, we're also going to sit him out for week 4 or the season. So it's really THREE weeks."
 
ProdigalHorn said:
How in the world are we only six-point underdogs. I get we improved from that first game last year, but wow.........
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Does sound like easy money ....

I have been riding the Thunder to some 'easy money' since Game 5 against the Spurs. Last night, the GSW were favored again, if you can believe it. On a hot streak I am telling you. May grab some of this too.
 
It's just an opening line, for a game in the distant future.

As always, the money bet on either team, will dictate how the line will fluctuate.
 
Getting "The House" In Order

​

In many ways, Strong has won me over as a believer in his ability to lead a program with the moves he’s made this offseason (hiring Sterlin Gilbert and Matt Mattox, getting Hardee McCrary involved in the program, retaining Brick Haley and Jeff Traylor, etc.) along with the way he’s been able to close in recruiting to get the players he needs to get this thing flipped.

It’s been a frustrating process to watch from afar at times, but I give Strong credit for sticking to his guns of how he’s building the program even if he’s had to make pit stops along the journey to tweak some things.

As he gets ready to head into his third season in Austin the process can be seen coming together to the point where my expectations for the 2016 squad are much higher than what I anticipated last year’s club could accomplish.

The bottom line for me is this squad looks like it's a quarterback away from making some noise in the Big 12. I see a Texas team that’s at least a bowl squad (I couldn’t honestly say that about last year’s team) and could win eight regular season games if some breaks go their way.

Yes, Strong has a team made up of players he’s either recruited or who’ve spent more time under his watch than Mack Brown’s, and I’m feeling bullish on the Longhorns because those players (when looking at the roster across the board) are more talented top to bottom than the squad Strong inherited from Brown two years ago.

Texas has talent, the players appear to be hungry and they’re talented enough to be able to do something about the losing trend the program has experienced over the last two years. Whereas I’ve had to convince myself in recent years that a Texas could be something it’s not, it sure feels like this team is capable of getting the house in order in 2016 to set the stage for a run at a Big 12 title in 2017.

[Full 247 article]
 
The Impressive Shane Buechele

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All people expected the kid to do was change everything. Six years of hopes unfulfilled. Six years of promise unreached. Six years of fans congregating at Royal-Memorial Stadium to wail about how the sky was falling.

Shane Buechele might not have transformed a program [with his Spring Game performance], but he did ensured one thing:

In four months, people are going to expect him to do a whole lot more.

For the record, the Longhorns' incessantly unsettled quarterback situation was not officially resolved at the Spring Game. UT coach Charlie Strong said Buechele and senior Tyrone Swoopes will continue to compete for the starting job when the Longhorns reconvene in August, at which point sophomore Jerrod Heard's shoulder should be healthy enough to give him a chance, too.

Buechele, the 6-foot-1, 191-pound early enrollee... dazzled in every phase of UT's new hurry-up, no-huddle offense, leading three of the team's four touchdown drives.

Strong and offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert were quick to point out Swoopes had much better days during UT's first 14 practices of the spring. But Gilbert acknowledged it was encouraging to see Buechele perform so well in front of a crowd "with the lights on."

And although Strong didn't commit to anything, he said he "would be comfortable" starting a freshman quarterback in UT's opener against Notre Dame.

"Everybody could see exactly what he did," [Malik] Jefferson said. "He went out there and made plays."

Buechele showed no difficulties making a variety of throws.

"He can touch all parts of the field," Gilbert said.

Per UT policy, freshmen aren't allowed to speak to the media until they've played in a game. But his teammates and coaches said they've been impressed with his demeanor and work ethic.

[Full Chron article]
 
If Sterlin Gilbert is as talented as I think he is, he may come up with some very effective strategies for using all three QBs in certain situations. They all bring something to the table and I hope they get a chance to contribute.
 
Only thing I really noticed watching Boo with the football is he needs to learn how and when to slide and avoid the hits. Other than that, he looks to me like "the guy" for 2016.
 
BevoJoe said:
Only thing I really noticed watching Boo with the football is he needs to learn how and when to slide and avoid the hits. Other than that, he looks to me like "the guy" for 2016.
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Understanding when to give up a few extra yards for the sake of your health is going to be important for Boo, no doubt. Learn to lose the tiny battle to win the war.
 
If you remember one of my previous Gabriel’s Horn posts, ‘Thinking Metrics‘, you’ll recall the discussion about Bill Connelly’s ‘A better way to look at returning starters…’ In brief, Bill offers a different method, ‘% returning’, based on actual production returning on a team’s offensive and defensive units. If a team returned either >80% or <40% returning production on either side of the ball, respectively, those units could expect to see significant improvement (>80%) or a significant setback (<40%).

It’s interesting that Bill found ‘% returning’ correlations for changes in S&P of 13.8% on offense and 22%(!) on defense, so long as the units exceeded the critical thresholds.

For Texas fans, this helps explain the significant drop in performance of the Texas defense from 2014 to 2015. For the offense, though it lost much production from 2014 to 2015, the expected rise or decline would theoretically be capped at 13.8%. For what it’s worth, Texas improved in S&P from 2014 to 2015, moving from 80 to 75. That’s not a big jump, nor was there a critical amount of production absent from the year prior (crying on the inside).

Moving on, the Texas defense could see a VERY pronounced jump in S&P next season, given that it’s returning 81% on defense, while the offense returns 79%, just missing the 80% threshold.

So, without further ado, let’s identify the units set to face significant setbacks in 2016 that are on the Texas schedule:

West Virginia: Though the Mountaineers return 86% on offense, they return just 38% on defense.

TCU: The Horned Frogs return just 29% on offense, BUT REMEMBER(!), the improvement/setback dynamic on offense is less pronounced. The Frogs return 68% on defense.

California: The Golden Bears return 15% on offense! Good riddance to OC Tony Franklin, Goff, Lawler, and company. On defense they return 62%, under the 80% threshold, little to no improvement expected there.

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish are on the cusp, returning 47% on defense, while their offense returns 60%. This makes the season opener VERY intriguing.

Kansas: The Jayhawks will be an interesting study in 2016, as they return 81% on offense and 85% on defense.

My thoughts…Texas manages to reverse the results of their 3 close losses from last season, that gets them to 8 wins. However, because of the home slate, I think Texas manages to upset a team or two at home.

MY CRAZY PREDICTION…

Notre Dame: Win (yeah, I said it)
UTEP: Win
Cal: Win
OSU: Loss
OU: Loss
Iowa State: Win
Kansas State: Win
Baylor: Win
Texas Tech: Loss
West Virginia: Win
Kansas: Win
TCU: Win​

Texas ends the regular season 9-3! This occurs, of course, barring any catastrophic injuries to multiple players.

The 2016 Longhorns talent and depth will be at it’s best since they were contending for Big 12 titles, though the team will still be young. That being said, the offense and more so the defense are set to improve by significant margins.

[Full TFB article-1 and article-2]
 
Cool!! 9-3 would be an indication of vast improvement for mostly sophs and RS frosh. Not holding my breath though.
 
Wildcard Horns

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As a part of its preseason college football coverage, Athlon Sports has placed Texas in its group of wild card teams. The Longhorns are one of three Big 12 teams among those the publication deems too hard to predict how they’ll perform during the coming season (Baylor and TCU are the others).

Wild card might be the best designation for Charlie Strong’s third Texas ball club. The Longhorns have some aspects of their squad that could be among the best in the Big 12 when the dust settles: running backs D'Onta Foreman and Chris Warren and an offensive line with three tremendous core pieces (Kent Perkins, Patrick Vahe and Connor Williams) form the team’s identity, one that when all else fails the Longhorns should be able to line up and run the ball against anyone.

Defensively Malik Jefferson, Holton Hill and Davante Davis are returning All-Big 12 performers in the back seven. Texas also has veterans with starting experience at safety (Dylan Haines and Jason Hall) and defensive end (Naashon Hughes and Bryce Cottrell). Anthony Wheeler, DeShon Elliott, P.J. Locke and Charles Omenihu all took major steps forward during the spring, making the defense appear to be a unit that could be one of the conference’s best in 2017 once everything comes together.

But for everything that Texas going for it due to the youthful experience dotting the roster on both sides of the ball, the Longhorns could still wind up starting a true freshman quarterback (Shane Buechele) and a true freshman center (Zach Shackelford) while having to rely on as many as five true freshmen for depth at defensive tackle. That makes the Longhorns the very definition of a wild card, which is something to keep in mind when trying to figure out what win total is acceptable in 2016.

[Full 247 article]
 
Fowler and Southall have to attend summer school and should be enrolled by fall if they take care of business.

Also reports that Jake Raulerson will be back at Texas
 
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