INFLATION--FED's cutting rates again...

Chop said:
Beware of premature celebrations on inflation

"The analysis in our paper finds that inflation is most often persistent, that it is critical not to loosen policies prematurely in response to temporary declines in inflation – meaning interest rates will likely need to remain high for longer – and that while fighting inflation often involves short-term pain, this is likely small in relation to the costs of persistently high inflation."
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This is the correct view
 
Chop said:
I think that's usually right. Best to hold the line for a bit and see what happens before they start lowering rates.
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You don’t know you crossed the line on higher rates until the line breaks. Thus, expect a harder landing than the soft landing scenario they are peddling.
 
It's a balancing act. The Fed isn't doing that bad at all. The Fed has been slightly hawkish over the last few years. Around a 7.5 out of 10, if 10 is completely hawkish/defeat inflation at all costs. Basically, the Fed has done what it's supposed to do.

Going forward, I'd be wary of upsetting the balance. Just hold steady for a while and don't jump headfirst into the shallow pool of rapid multiple rate cuts.
 
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My haircuts are same cost as 1979.
 
Girl Scout cookies have been grossly overpriced for 20 years. If it's getting worse, well, the little gold diggers can go jump in a lake. Maybe some of them will earn a swimming merit badge.
 
Sangre Naranjada said:
Girl Scout cookies have been grossly overpriced for 20 years. If it's getting worse, well, the little gold diggers can go jump in a lake. Maybe some of them will earn a swimming merit badge.
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They are overpriced, but I can't say no to 7 year old girls asking for money. They're too cute, and since they aren't my kids, I don't feel an obligation to sometimes say no just so they don't think the world will always give them what they want. Besides, I get big points at home when I bring Mrs. Deez the samosas, and I'm a big fan of the thin mints when they're kept in the freezer. In total, those little cookie racketeers usually scam $20 - $30 per year out of me.
 
Due to crappy bonus this year due to the manufacturing recession, my pay in 2024 will be the same as 2018 in nominal terms. In real terms, I estimate a 22% reduction.
 
mchammer said:
Nice pay raise for some of you:
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Yes, it will be nice to get the bump on our Social Security checks (and also on my USAF retirement check). It helps us catch up on part of last year's inflation. It doesn't come close to covering the huge increases in food and energy costs. And the index they use to calculate the increase doesn't accurately reflect the way retirees spend.
But I won't turn it down - every little bit helps.
 
ViperHorn said:
Wait until winter arrives. Natural gas has been over $3 since 05 October.
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I'll watch this with great interest. Our previous home was all-electric. We moved in April (to get into a one-story house so Mrs. HHD won't have stairs to climb) and we have gas heat. So far our Atmos bills have been tiny - but we haven't had heat on yet. Hope we don't get huge gas bills in the winter.
 
HornHuskerDad said:
I'll watch this with great interest. Our previous home was all-electric. We moved in April (to get into a one-story house so Mrs. HHD won't have stairs to climb) and we have gas heat. So far our Atmos bills have been tiny - but we haven't had heat on yet. Hope we don't get huge gas bills in the winter.
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We moved to deep east texas 18 months ago. Gas (wtr heater, central heat) and electric (range, washer &dryer, central a/c. ). As hot as this summer and last summer was we never had a combined bill over $200 in any month. Last winter the norm combined bill was $160 with one month at $240ish. That was the month of the big freeze

Gas has always been cheaper for heat I hear.

Our house here is only 1800sf, one story and very energy efficient. Not to mention the huge trees keep the sun off the house. Just by eliminating the 2nd story should be a significant savings for you
 
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Horn2RunAgain said:
We moved to deep east texas 18 months ago. Gas (wtr heater, central heat) and electric (range, washer &dryer, central a/c. ). As hot as this summer and last summer was we never had a combined bill over $200 in any month. Last winter the norm combined bill was $160 with one month at $240ish. That was the month of the big freeze

Gas has always been cheaper for heat I hear.

Our house here is only 1800sf, one story and very energy efficient. Not to mention the huge trees keep the sun off the house. Just by eliminating the 2nd story should be a significant savings for you
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Yes, single story with double pane windows makes a huge difference.
 
Horn2RunAgain said:
Our house here is only 1800sf, one story and very energy efficient. Not to mention the huge trees keep the sun off the house. Just by eliminating the 2nd story should be a significant savings for you
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We downsized a bit when we moved - went from 2650 sq ft to 2400. My Reliant bill (on average billing at our previous 2-story home) was about $450/month. So far we're running about $300 for Reliant and $40 for Atmos. I suspect that the 220 volts for the pool pump will put a floor on the electric bill, even in the winter.
 
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