INFLATION--FED's cutting rates again...

[Horn2RunAgain]

For the past 15 yrs, every time a govt entity trots out #s on the economy or inflation I'm reminded of Disraeli's quote. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics

 

[nashhorn]

HHD, any organization that accounts for spending like my wife does is a fraud. That is “honey this $100 dress was on sale for $80 so I saved you $20 today. Aren’t you proud of me?”
Oh, S***

 

[Horn6721]

nash
I am guessing your wife does not read HF?

 

[HornHuskerDad]

HHD, any organization that accounts for spending like my wife does is a fraud. That is “honey this $100 dress was on sale for $80 so I saved you $20 today. Aren’t you proud of me?”
Oh, S***

It could be worse:

Wife comes into the house after shopping - carrying three new dresses.
Husband: "Looks expensive. How much did this cost me?"
Wife: "No problem - I got them for free."
Husband: "No way you got brand new dresses for free. Please explain yourself."
Wife: "The dresses were half off. So I paid for them with the half I saved."

 

[nashhorn]

Ha, HHD. It’s the same mentality just loftier ambition.

 

[mchammer]

Not true for lower end middle class and below.

Says here in the WSJ that lower income Americans have had pay increases above the inflation rate:

 

[mchammer]

Not true for lower end middle class and below.

 

[mchammer]

Salaries increase too, particularly on the bottom end.

 

[mchammer]

Not if you are retired or on a fixed income.

One party supports unlimited spending that the has effect of robbing older, whiter retired folks (via higher inflation) for the benefit of younger, non-white folks. This isn’t an economic issue but a political issue. I wonder if retired folks who vote Dem actually know what they are voting for.

 

[mchammer]

No. Money went into all the areas of the economy where apparent growth occurred. That means real estate, education, woke green industry, and ALL of the stocks. Stocks are due to drop more. I heard one analyst say stocks won't grow much for the next 10 years. Money injection and the end of it are his justification.

This prediction is not off to a good start.

 

[mchammer]

Here is the whole article from WSJ regarding impact if inflation on income levels:

 

[Monahorns]

This prediction is not off to a good start.

Stocks already did drop a bit. They have recovered some but they will have to drop if the inflation is to be ended. The rate increases have been slow enough so far to allow for stocks to stay up and inflation to stay up as well.

 

[mb227]

Stocks already did drop a bit. They have recovered some but they will have to drop if the inflation is to be ended. The rate increases have been slow enough so far to allow for stocks to stay up and inflation to stay up as well.

I can live with some stock price decreases in the short-term if dividends keep coming in. And some of my holdings are actually increasing payouts. This is especially nice for the ones in DRIP structures...

 

[HornHuskerDad]

if dividends keep coming in.

Good point, mb. I note in my account that the dividend keep on coming, even when the stock price is erratic. Seems like a pretty good strategy in the current market.

 

[nashhorn]

Yep, that $15/hr lifted the lowest workers a lot.

 

[mb227]

Good point, mb. I note in my account that the dividend keep on coming, even when the stock price is erratic. Seems like a pretty good strategy in the current market.

Mom's advisor kept trying to get her to unwind some of her XOM position when it was in the 30's early in the pandemic...I reminded her that it was still paying the dividend.

Haven't quite convinced her to sell some covered call options...but that would be another income stream.

And my REITs are still paying out monthly...those and the natural gas trusts have long since paid for themselves.

 

[ViperHorn]

And my REITs are still paying out monthly...those and the natural gas trusts have long since paid for themselves.

Well done mb.

 

[mchammer]

US NatGas Prices Plunge To 28-Month Low On Oversupply Conditions | ZeroHedge

 

[ViperHorn]

Remember, the crude volumes of not include crude in tankers, on refinery grounds or in the pipelines. Nat gas does not include volumes in pipelines.

Point is very seldom does trade pricing include all volumes.

 

[Run Pincher]

Inflation jumps in early 2023, PCE shows, and stays stubbornly high at over 5%

 

[mchammer]

Inflation jumps in early 2023, PCE shows, and stays stubbornly high at over 5%

On the income side wages for private workers accelerated for the first time in 4 months, up 6.9% Y/Y, from 6.3% in Dec, but wage growth for govt workers slowed to 5.0% Y/Y, from 5.1%


I thought wages weren’t keeping up? I agree retirees or any investor in stocks and bonds got screwed last year, but that is water under the bridge now that the Fed is raising rates above 5%.

 

[utahorn]

And of course, I drink beer, and very recently (last few months), I've started drinking a little whisky. Never liked it before, but I'm starting to develop a taste for it.

For Scotch, I liked Glenlivet and Glen Grant. The latter is very smooth but hard to find in the US.

 

[Chop]

I agree retirees or any investor in stocks and bonds got screwed last year, but that is water under the bridge now that the Fed is raising rates above 5%

Not necessarily on any investor in stocks getting screwed. Most probably fared poorly no doubt.

Fed raising rates above 5% -- a return to the historical norm.

 

[Chop]

Wife: "The dresses were half off. So I paid for them with the half I saved."

 

[Mr. Deez]

For Scotch, I liked Glenlivet and Glen Grant. The latter is very smooth but hard to find in the US.

I have some Glenlivet and some Singleton's, and I like them both. I also have some English whisky and some Welsh whisky. As I've mentioned, I've never been a scotch or whisky guy, but after touring this distillery near my house and doing a tasting there, I realized that I do like scotch and whisky. I had just never had any that were any good.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

Lagavullin 16yr. It is in the vein of the smoky one from your local distillery.

 

[Chop]

I'm more of a Speyside Scotch drinker, but if you're into the really smoky stuff, try your smoky Scotch with one of the better (and usually more expensive) extra smoky Gouda cheeses. It's a double shot.

Now to go completely overboard, drink your smoky Scotch, nibbling on smoky Gouda, while smoking a high-end hand-rolled cigar. While sitting around a campfire...

 

[AC]

US NatGas Prices Plunge To 28-Month Low On Oversupply Conditions | ZeroHedge

Nat Gas plunged because Oil is way up, and dumbass Biden shutdown all the pipelines to carry Nat Gas! So supply demand for Nat Gas got upside down. That does NOT mean inflation is low!!!!!!

 

[Mr. Deez]

I'm more of a Speyside Scotch drinker, but if you're into the really smoky stuff, try your smoky Scotch with one of the better (and usually more expensive) extra smoky Gouda cheeses. It's a double shot.

Now to go completely overboard, drink your smoky Scotch, nibbling on smoky Gouda, while smoking a high-end hand-rolled cigar. While sitting around a campfire...

Damn, I haven't had a cigar since a friend of my wife's brought me a few from a tour of a Cuban tobacco farm about 4 years ago. I'll bet it would go great with a smoky scotch.

When asked by doctors if I smoke, I say, " I smoke a good cigar every 4 to 7 years if I can get my hands on one. Does that count?" They usually chuckle and say, "nah, that won't hurt you."

 

[Chop]

Sounds like a smokin’ good time.

(I don’t smoke either, but a good cigar once a year or two (or three) is an indulgence I allow myself)