INFLATION--FED's cutting rates again...

mb227 said:
Diet puts it in the why bother category...
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Personally, I grew up on diet soda, because it's what my parents bought. When I became an adult I tried regular soda, and I didn't like it. Too syrupy and sweet from the HFCS. I tried Dublin Dr. Pepper and liked that, but it too was very sweet and too much hassle to get to make it a regular thing. What was interesting is that in Germany, they sold "Coca Cola Light" instead of Diet Coke, and it had Cyclamate (banned in the US). It's pretty good.
 
Mr. Deez said:
Have you tried HEB's knock-off? It might be better than the real thing.
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After re checking, heb diet Dr B is the same cost as Walmart brand after Walmart raised their price

I liked the heb knockoff but it has a bit of a bite to the taste. But I liked it.

2 weeks ago I stopped buying diet sodas altogether. Switched to iced tea
 
Typical nutty comment below by the doomers. Maybe there is a 3rd way where you keep the interest rate slightly higher than the inflation rate to keep it under control but not high enough to cause deflation?

We have a 1930’s style deflationary depression, which is what happens if we keep raising interest rates. Or, a Weimar Germany kind of hyperinflation, which is what happens if we try to inflate our way out of our current debt problems. And that’s it. This is not something on the distant horizon anymore. It’s something right here staring us in the face.”


"Welcome To The Endgame" - Rubino Warns "Everyone's About To Realize There's No Fix For This" | ZeroHedge
 
Sounds like it's a good time to hit the brakes, pause, don't raise or lower rates for a bit, and see which direction things go.

But don't take it from me. The only country for which I'm qualified to be the Fed Chairman of is Western Sahara.
 
Horn2RunAgain said:
After re checking, heb diet Dr B is the same cost as Walmart brand after Walmart raised their price

I liked the heb knockoff but it has a bit of a bite to the taste. But I liked it.

2 weeks ago I stopped buying diet sodas altogether. Switched to iced tea
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Never thought to check the sodium. I'm a little surprised there would be much of a difference.

You're probably better off drinking tea. It's definitely healthier even if you sweeten it.
 
Mr. Deez said:
You're probably better off drinking tea. It's definitely healthier even if you sweeten it.
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I stopped drinking sodas during and after my first trip to Italy about 10 or 11 years ago. Now it is unsweetened sparkling water or tea for me, in addition to too many alcoholic beverages.
 
Chop said:
Sounds like it's a good time to hit the brakes, pause, don't raise or lower rates for a bit, and see which direction things go.

But don't take it from me. The only country for which I'm qualified to be the Fed Chairman of is Western Sahara.
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CPI comes out tomorrow.
 
Mr. Deez said:
Never thought to check the sodium. I'm a little surprised there would be much of a difference.

You're probably better off drinking tea. It's definitely healthier even if you sweeten it.
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Unsweet tea for me, and I can tell a difference in just a couple of weeks.

Like hot tea in the winter as well. Add honey and I'm good to go ( local honey here cost me $12 @ the health food store in nacogdoches. Don't recall it being that high before)
 
Sangre Naranjada said:
I stopped drinking sodas during and after my first trip to Italy about 10 or 11 years ago. Now it is unsweetened sparkling water or tea for me, in addition to too many alcoholic beverages.
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At home, I drink quite a bit of unsweetened sparkling water. It was big in Germany, but I didn't go for it much, because the only good brands of it were pretty expensive for how much I like to drink. On base, they sell a UK brand that's pretty good. In British stores, it's priced like the good German water, but on base, it's dirt cheap. The main time I drink diet sodas is out and about.

And of course, I drink beer, and very recently (last few months), I've started drinking a little whisky. Never liked it before, but I'm starting to develop a taste for it.
 
Mr. Deez said:
At home, I drink quite a bit of unsweetened sparkling water. It was big in Germany, but I didn't go for it much, because the only good brands of it were pretty expensive for how much I like to drink. On base, they sell a UK brand that's pretty good. In British stores, it's priced like the good German water, but on base, it's dirt cheap. The main time I drink diet sodas is out and about.

And of course, I drink beer, and very recently (last few months), I've started drinking a little whisky. Never liked it before, but I'm starting to develop a taste for it.
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COLA .5% in January. Largest increase in 3 mos. Consumer prices up .1%, but the projection was for a decline.
 
AC said:
Also, BLS moved the goal posts again. January is the first month the new CPI calculation comes out. When they change it it always goes lower. It’s gaslighting.
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The new CPI calculation increased inflation.
71E891B3-F144-441D-BDEB-40488ECEA04A.jpeg
 
Run Pincher said:
COLA .5% in January. Largest increase in 3 mos. Consumer prices up .1%, but the projection was for a decline.
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Half of the increase was due to rents, which is already going down but CPI doesn’t pick up rent changes until 6-12 months later than what happens in the real world.
 
Last edited:
Also adding to the dovish picture was that core CPI services ex-shelter (one of Powell's preferred supercore inflation measures) rose just 0.27% in Jan, down from 0.37% in Dec and the lowest since October.


“we continue to forecast inflation will rapidly decline as the BLS slowly reflects the reality of housing deflation in their estimate of shelter inflation. This lag is approximately 12 months, so second-half inflation numbers should come down rapidly.”
 
mchammer said:
Typical nutty comment below by the doomers. Maybe there is a 3rd way where you keep the interest rate slightly higher than the inflation rate to keep it under control but not high enough to cause deflation?

We have a 1930’s style deflationary depression, which is what happens if we keep raising interest rates. Or, a Weimar Germany kind of hyperinflation, which is what happens if we try to inflate our way out of our current debt problems. And that’s it. This is not something on the distant horizon anymore. It’s something right here staring us in the face.”


"Welcome To The Endgame" - Rubino Warns "Everyone's About To Realize There's No Fix For This" | ZeroHedge
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Rubin i is a bit crazy and hates Bitcoin. But he’s on the right track. Lyn Alden is the best global macro economist though. NONE of them agree with you McHammer. Rates will keep rising and a stock market crash is eminent! Just a matter of when. Even at 6% or 7% Fed Fund Rates. Inflation will stick! They call it sticky inflation.
 
AC said:
Rubin i is a bit crazy and hates Bitcoin. But he’s on the right track. Lyn Alden is the best global macro economist though. NONE of them agree with you McHammer. Rates will keep rising and a stock market crash is eminent! Just a matter of when. Even at 6% or 7% Fed Fund Rates. Inflation will stick! They call it sticky inflation.
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Read the creature from jekyll island. That would help!
 
AC said:
Rubin i is a bit crazy and hates Bitcoin. But he’s on the right track. Lyn Alden is the best global macro economist though. NONE of them agree with you McHammer. Rates will keep rising and a stock market crash is eminent! Just a matter of when. Even at 6% or 7% Fed Fund Rates. Inflation will stick! They call it sticky inflation.
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As long as interest rate is above the inflation rate, the inflation rate doesn’t matter because you can still increase your wealth.
 
mchammer said:
In my scenario, wages are keeping up with inflation. Why would real wages not recover?
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Your scenario? FFR is 4.5% - 4.75%. Maybe you’re looking at mortgage or car loan rates. I do not ever borrow money so I don’t follow that. I just know annual returns of 130% to 140% over 3 years beats everything else. Everything. Scarcity matters!
 

From Lyn Alden.
The ratio in the CPI calculation is in this attached graph. CPI is NOT real inflation but it’s not coming down to Trump levels anytime soon. This ratio and this graph is why.
 
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