How bad is this economy going to get?

Well then I’ve got brain cancer, liver cancer, Leukemia at the same time. I know where I’m going when I die. As for Longest Horn and Mus my suggestion is put them on ignore. I’m like Sargent Shultz with those two posters.
 
Man! No one should ever want to go through a depression, like the one in the 1930's. The Stock Market crashed in '29 causing huge job losses, and companies and stock holders went bust practically overnight. Nearly 25% of the workforce was jobless. Homes and farms were foreclosed on. IIRC, banks closed for a while, some failed. One factor that caused the situation to be worse was President Hoover's refusal to involve the government, so no relief was provided. He took a Laissez Faire approach keeping the government aid out and believed business would take care of the situation alone. It didn't, but also it couldn't.

Add in the factor of years of poor farming practices which eventually resulted in the "Dust Bowl" and times were tough...very tough. The "New Deal" helped but even after the depression resided, including a shorter version in 1937, unemployment was still at 14-15% until the US entered WWII. No one in this country should ever hope to see that scenario again!
 
Trump had emphasized the roaring stock market as part of his justification that the economy was strong. The virus and subsequent layoffs threatened that. Hence the massive government stimulus and federal reserve intervention is necessary to keep the stock market from imploding. If the stock market implodes, all kind of retirement instruments (which were already underfunded) go bust. Teachers, public servants, 401Ks, etc. would have to be bailed out next costing trillions more. The managers of the financial system are surely scared out of their minds. In addition to bailing out their own hides, they must find a way to keep society going forward or social unrest would threaten many of them.
 
I wish they’d forgo tax on 401k withdrawals because, we’ll just because that’s important to us old retired folks. How’s that for personal greed?
 
nashhorn said:
I wish they’d forgo tax on 401k withdrawals because, we’ll just because that’s important to us old retired folks. How’s that for personal greed?
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I wouldn't consider that as personal greed. More of protecting your investment. I had one, a 401K that is, but cashed it out well over a decade ago, paid the taxes and a penalty, then rolled into a Roth and other investments which were considered post tax dollars. Why do this? If you're putting away pretax dollars, when you take a withdrawal on retirement you pay current tax rates. Since our national debt is now greater than our GDP at some point in the next few years tax rates will, most likely, go up. That means low taxed dollars going in will be taxed at higher rates coming out. Might want to speak with a licensed Estate Planning professional to get a better discussion since there are many investment vehicles available out there. I'm 65 and still put money away for when I need it. Fortunately, I haven't needed to dip into it...yet.
 
One factor that caused the situation to be worse was President Hoover's refusal to involve the government, so no relief was provided. He took a Laissez Faire approach keeping the government aid out and believed business would take care of the situation alone. It didn't, but also it couldn't.
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Your understanding is false. Hoover was very interventionist. He made his name leading a FEMA precursor, getting the government involved in disaster relief.

He leap into action after the 29 crash. One thing he did was enact a tariff to "stabilize" prices. That among other things caused the Depression to be worse.

Then FDR came in with the New Deal and caused a 2nd market crash in 36 or 37. It wasn't until he died and Truman rolled back SOME of the socialism of the New Deal.
 
We need to start pushing our politicians to open up society again soon. I propose first of May. If not, the government is going to cause a Great Depression 2. It is going to get real ugly.

Even now, the discussion is about taking out your 401(k). Consuming capital today means less economy tomorrow. It is a double whammy. The government is punishing the people today so that we can have even less tomorrow.

Sounds like tyranny. Our ancestors would be ashamed of us for allowing it, no asking for it.
 
But we have free helicopter money flying everywhere

Whenever you are offered something for nothing remember that mice die in traps because they don't understand why the cheese is free
 
Once the government says go ahead reopen your business - May 1st or whenever - many businesses will no longer be able to function. How many people are willing to take their family to six flags or Disneyworld and stand in line with hoards of people? Picture shows? Same thing. Cruises? Don’t think so. Sports arenas? They’ll watch TV instead. Online business will grow, but retail shops won’t fair as well and the monthly rent income to the landlords will vanish.

The six-foot distance mentality will remain for long after mandatory quarantine and lockdowns end. That means economic activity will be smaller after the virus than it was before the virus. But debt levels will be much higher. Normal market forces will be largely replaced with government subsidies and possibly nationalization. It will be different than before. It won’t go back to what we think of as normal.
 
I am a business owner for 14 years. I’m up to 2.5 employees. Was 15. What do you do for a living? Tell us about you Mus?
 
AC said:
I’m not answering anymore questions until you tell us what you do for a living.
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You haven’t even said what you do for a living yet.

“I own a business.” “I employ 25 people.” “I could buy an island and pay to move you there.”

Sounds to me like a jerk who braggs about himself to feel important.
 
Monahorns said:
I have made some accusations on this site about statements being Keynesianism. Read this article if you want to know why that is a horrible thing. Plus it again explains where this world sits.

Keynes Called Himself a Socialist. He Was Right. | Edward W. Fuller
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Stopped reading after I read this line.

"Its statements are consistently grounded in the irrefutably true logic of human action."

There is no logic to human action, and there is absolutely no irrefutably true logic in human action.

Article came across as being written by someone that likes to hear his own voice.
 
Musburger1 said:
You haven’t even said what you do for a living yet.

“I own a business.” “I employ 25 people.” “I could buy an island and pay to move you there.”

Sounds to me like a jerk who braggs about himself to feel important.
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FWIW, you misspelled the plural form of the word brag. I met & spoke with AC last year at the HF tailgate prior to the Spring Game. He is a passionate fan of the Horns, a successful small business owner and anything but a braggart.
 
Last edited:
Thanks Worsterman, I’m blushing.

I was trying to root this guy out of his rat hole and tell us what he does for a living. He won’t! So I’ll assume he is living on welfare in his mothers basement! He’s been on ignore which is his permanent status from me. He may live in Russia. Mom’s basement is my best guess. But he has been trolling us for shits and giggles and I have work to do so bye bye Mus! It’s been real!
 
AC said:
Thanks Worsterman, I’m blushing.

I was trying to root this guy out of his rat hole and tell us what he does for a living. He won’t! So I’ll assume he is living on welfare in his mothers basement! He’s been on ignore which is his permanent status from me. He may live in Russia. Mom’s basement is my best guess. But he has been trolling us for shits and giggles and I have work to do so bye bye Mus! It’s been real!
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I'll answer when you do. Coward.
 
Stopped reading after I read this line.

"Its statements are consistently grounded in the irrefutably true logic of human action."

There is no logic to human action, and there is absolutely no irrefutably true logic in human action.

Article came across as being written by someone that likes to hear his own voice.
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AB, you need to read the whole article.

The statement that hit you the wrong way means something very specific. Generally or in a certain way you are right. But the author is referring to a priori economic theory. It is based on observing human behavior and inducing conclusions which are more or less universally true.

Human beings use logic. We use reason. We often act illogically and unreasonably but even then there is some reason why. It is based on something inherent in our humanity, not random chance. It is how we know the economic laws of supply and demand, time preference, and marginal utility. He wasn't saying all people are rational or always make correct choices.

The point of the article is to highlight what philosophy Keynes based his economic theory on. It is important that we understand what ideas have shaped our society and why our economy acts the way it does today.
 


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Helen Kennedy
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Helen Kennedy
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Newspaperman (ex NY Daily News & Boston Herald). I had a Trump joke here but it suddenly stopped being funny. (helenkennedy@gmail)
NYC and the North Fork helenkennedy.com Joined March 2007
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At least she is being honest.
 
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