How bad is this economy going to get?

Musburger1 said:
Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) on Twitter

don’t know if Trump is hinting he struck a deal or if he’s blowing smoke up our *** and simply trying to talk up the oil market. WTI jumped from 22 to 25 on the tweet.
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Russian has denied there has been a deal and insists there will be production cuts. The Saudis say they would scale back from 12mbd to 9 mbd IF other countries agree to make cuts. Appears Trump was just talking the market up.
 
Hmmm, no one wants to give anyone credit except themselves. A cut back would be good no matter who brought it about. If I were able to go anywhere I’d be more grateful for the low gas prices, as it is, meh.
 
No one knows how bad the economy is going to get.

What I am certain of is, the longer the government keeps in prison mode, the worse it will get.

We also know that there won't be a healthy recovery. With all the $s being created capital is being consumed and prices are being pushed artificially high. That means there won't be capital left to grow and a huge % of the population will be spending all their money on food, gas, shelter. Savings don't exist anymore in that social class because Presidents like Bush, Obama, and Trump have used the "invisible tax" to take their money.

We never really got out of the 2008 recession because of the same reasons.
 
mb227 said:
Find some stocks you really like and look at the Options Call Contracts for January 2022 (the latest dates that I have seen on most of the Options Chains). There are some definite steals to be had. I have mentioned this in other threads. pointing out that the only thing you lose out on in the interim is the dividends (which will go to the actual holder of the stock).

If you hit the option expiry date, you can either acquire the stock at the strike price, do nothing if the strike was not met (and be out only the cost of the contract) or engage in what amounts to a flip where they execute the trade on the system but flip it elsewhere, leaving you just with the profit from the difference between strike and actual price of the stock...

Do I have an absolute crystal ball? No. Just like some of the futures bets at the sports book, I am sure some will be a swing and a miss. But many of them are things I expect to pay off very well...as in not just "eff you money" but "eff everybody money" (as attributed to F. Ross Johnson in Barbarians at the Gate).
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Keep in mind that the great thing about options is that you have unlimited opportunities for gains with a small investment, but in the right situation you have the opportunity for unlimited loss as well.

The prudent thing is to alway protect yourself.

If you are going to sell a call, protect yourself by either owning enough stock to cover or buying enough calls to cover it. Selling a call will make money if the stock price goes down, but if it goes up there is the chance for unlimited loss. Buying calls gives you the opportunity for unlimited gains, but only of the stock goes up, it's worthless when out of the money.

Buying a Put gives you the ability to make money if the stock goes down, but are expensive if the stock goes up so you need to hedge your bets. This is a volatile market so you can make money when it goes up and down. I've used several strategies to protect myself and still turn a profit.


Musburger1 said:
You guys are talking about opportunities to get rich, or at least protect your wealth. That's prudent, but most likely there will be much greater concerns.
Uproar Among Workers Supplying the World’s Meat Is Spreading
Opinion | Will the Coronavirus Threaten Our Food?

If food supply chains shut down, money won't get you what you need. The second link above is definitely worth reading. It's a short article and very straight forwards. One short excerpt:
Those imports are at risk. Another threat is that those nations and others will take steps to protect their own food supplies. Last week, Kazakhstan, a major exporter of wheat flour, and Vietnam, the world’s third-largest supplier of rice, suspended exports of those products. Because the United States no longer holds national grain reserves, significant parts of the food supply could be jeopardized should food protectionism accelerate.
​
I bolded the last sentence. It's important. If we have a bad crop this season, there is going to be shortages. That means social unrest. We aren't there yet. It may not happen. But...It's not out of the question.
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We aren't going to feel it as badly here. The vast majority of our food is produced right here so we might not get Bananas from South America, but we will still get most of the fruits, vegetables, meats, and grains because we produce them.

It's a good time to be a hunter, cause if I need food, I'm going to kill me some Feral hogs. If you are also against those AR-15 rifles well guess what, I'm getting a new upper for mine. A .50 Cal Baowulf. I'm looking forward to killing me some hogs with that bad boy.
 
Hogs are good eatin, to be sure, but man those feral hogs are nasty to clean. They usually have a lot of mud, poop, and bugs/maggots on their bodies.
 
This would be a great time to have a (mostly) self-sustaining farm, especially if things get worse and stay worse...
 
Chop said:
This would be a great time to have a (mostly) self-sustaining farm, especially if things get worse and stay worse...
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With business on the Vol Horn Executive ranch falling off due to corona, I put the ladies to work planting lots of crops. I figure I can help my Hornfans buddies out if the poo really hits the fan. :smile1:
 
[QUOTE="Musburger1,
Those imports are at risk. Another threat is that those nations and others will take steps to protect their own food supplies... Vietnam, the world’s third-largest supplier of rice, suspended exports of those products... [/QUOTE]

Well, Arkansas is good for at least one thing: massive rice production. Globally, the Asians dominate in rice.

Largest rice producing nations:

1 India 43.20
2 China 30.35
3 Indonesia 12.16
4 Bangladesh 12.00
5 Thailand 9.65
6 Vietnam 7.66
7 Burma 6.80
8 Philippines 4.50
9 Cambodia 2.90
10 Pakistan 2.85​
 
The policy to help small businesses keep people on payroll means they can not file for unemployment
So the 10 mil who filed last 2 weeks all worked for big companies!
 
Virtually every one of those countries is screaming for Urea, much of which comes from this country.
 
Some interesting charts and images re: food production & food importing and exporting nations -- most of South America is sitting pretty (outside Venezuela and Dutch Suriname). No food riots there, just soccer riots:

agricultural-imports-and-exports.png



Largest Food Exports By Country
Rank Country Value of Food Exports (US Dollars, Thousands)
1 United States 72,682,349.79
2 Germany 34,628,800.73
3 United Kingdom 29,540,218.71
4 China 25,152,286.27
5 France 24,114,557.76
6 Netherlands 23,271,570.93
7 Japan 21,870,881.77
8 Canada 21,803,448.88
9 Belgium 15,742,034.88
10 Italy 13,890,507.81

Top 10 Agricultural Producing Countries in the World – Countryaah.com

9e7hnd9rcp931.jpg

the above map is better for Russia and the US, but not as great for much of South America.

The 25 Countries That Will Be Screwed By A World Food Crisis
Bangladesh is so screwed. Where's the late George Harrison when you need him...
 
Beside grave economic concerns I have for the short & long term prospects of some of my family members in the oil bidness, TEXAS, the US and the world... I also have real societal concerns about this pandemic dragging on where there is huge unemployment, civil unrest, rioting, looting, increased crime - especially armed robberies.

I have not heard officials, politicians and law enforcement publicly talking or speculating about this, but they must already be thinking about and potentially planning for it on some level.
 
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WorsterMan said:
Beside grave economic concerns I have for the short & long term prospects of some of my family members in the oil bidness, TEXAS, the US and the world... I also have real societal concerns about this pandemic dragging on where there is huge unemployment, civil unrest, rioting, looting, increased crime - especially armed robberies.
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Yeah. A lot of unknowns. Do you evacuate the prisons? What do you do with them? Who wants to be a guard? Suppose millions of homeowners skip payments for the next six months. Does the Fed simply loan a few more trillion at zero percent to the mortgage servicers? How does that work? What about the cost of health insurance? Is that going to double? Would that be sustainable? A lot of questions to be answered if this drags on.
 
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Musburger1 said:
Yeah. A lot of unknowns. Do you evacuate the prisons? What do you do with them? Who wants to be a guard? Suppose millions of homeowners skip payments for the next six months. Does the Fed simply loan a few more trillion at zero percent to the mortgage servicers? How does that work? What about the cost of health insurance? Is that going to double? Would that be sustainable? A lot of questions to be answered if this drags on.
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Relax, we got this.
 
Some frank talk. For better or for worse, this crisis will lead to a massive expansion of the government. And when government expands, it rarely contracts back when the crisis is over.
 
Y’all are making me feel sicker. My CC rejected my BTC purchase yesterday due to fraud protection, today it’s up $750/coin!

I Saw John Burt on Fox 26 at Barton Springs Park playing volleyball! Said he couldn’t take being locked inside anymore.

:facepalm:
 
Chop said:
Some frank talk. For better or for worse, this crisis will lead to a massive expansion of the government. And when government expands, it rarely contracts back when the crisis is over.
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Excuse me, but there was an enormous contraction of government
After WW II
 
l
AC said:
Y’all are making me feel sicker. My CC rejected my BTC purchase yesterday due to fraud protection, today it’s up $750/coin!

I Saw John Burt on Fox 26 at Barton Springs Park playing volleyball! Said he couldn’t take being locked inside anymore.

:facepalm:
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God is protecting you. I guess he figures Burt can’t catch anything.
 
huisache said:
Excuse me, but there was an enormous contraction of government
After WW II
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Well, the New Deal was a truly massive expansion of the government. The New Deal programs survived the end of the Great Depression, and in many cases expanded more and more from there.
 
Horn6721 said:
The policy to help small businesses keep people on payroll means they can not file for unemployment
So the 10 mil who filed last 2 weeks all worked for big companies!
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Not exactly true. People are being laid off now. The funds do not come until later so those being laid off are applying for unemployment.
 
Then the biz would have to hire them back. According to the SBA loans are already being processed.
According to Fox over 800 PPP loans have already been processed this morning so if any small Biz laid anyone off they need to rehire now
 
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