How bad is this economy going to get?

mb227 said:
What I find most humorous about the paper checks is that the envelope has a big box to check if the addressee is deceased, meanwhile the addressee was LISTED as [FN][MI][LN], DECD with the second line being "c/o [Initial.Last Name] where the C/O was the executor or executrix of the estate.

There is also language on the envelope about the crime if one forges the name of the recipient. HOWEVER...an executor or executrix is NOT forging the name of the deceased.

I speak from experience, having just received the paper check for my grandmother (after the direct deposit had failed since we closed the account about a year and a half ago when she passed away and we had paid the last of the bills).
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If the estate owed federal taxes I would be hard pressed not to deposit.
 
Joe Fan said:
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I don't think that's particularly smart. He doesn't get to decide who gets arrested. What I'd do is leave Alameda County altogether and go somewhere that isn't crazy. And as someone who used to live in Alameda County, it was crazy before this and will be even crazier after this. He should go somewhere else and offer to take his employees with him.
 
Mr. Deez said:
I don't think that's particularly smart. He doesn't get to decide who gets arrested. What I'd do is leave Alameda County altogether and go somewhere that isn't crazy. And as someone who used to live in Alameda County, it was crazy before this and will be even crazier after this. He should go somewhere else and offer to take his employees with him.
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The WSJ says "Elon Musk Is our new ACLU" - we definitely need one but I am not sure he is the guy for that. But still ....
Opinion | Elon Musk Is Our New ACLU
 
Nancy Pelosi & Co's latest stimulus proposal includes billions to illegal aliens ($1,200 each).
And amnesty, of course.

Want to try and guess what they are calling it?
The HEROES Act
Cannot make this shyte up
 
Never give an inch to the Democrats, they will destroy this country. Republicans need to look at them like Churchill looked at Hitler and the Nazis.

This is a wake up call for everyone who loves this country, fight this in any way possible. They are not helping this country they are killing it. They are putting us into slavery and not just us, but our children.

I don't understand how blue collar union men can agree with what they are doing. We have lost every right we are guaranteed by the Constitution. Once they destroy the 2A we will have lost. We are slaves.
 
Austin_Bill, we are close to getting to slavery in my mind. The government has just learned it can order businesses closed and they will. They just learned they can order you in your home and we stay. Churches didn't hold Easter services in person because of executive order. Those who meet today only do so because the government '"lets" them.

Austin_Bill, the 2A is important but the Federal Government is hollowing out society's value on freedom. The 2A won't be much of a obstacle. Hope I am wrong.
 
Back to the original question, the answer is it is looking bad. I originally thought we would be going again by now (mid-May).

If we keep this going for another 2 months, we are looking at potentially losing HALF the American workforce. That could happen. Easily. And, if so, these lockdowns could actually end the United States of America. The situation is that dire. There is a giant debt/unemployment train coming. There will be mortgage failures which will lead to bank failures which will lead to the failure of large corporations (i.e., the large employers). And sooner rather than later.

Even if we re-opened everything today, the snowball is already rolling downhill. It is a crazy idea to think you can just stop a nation’s economy. Ever. For any reason. And then just re-start it like nothing happened? We are about to find out. Stopping this economy may go down as one of the more disastrous decisions in American history. Maybe THE worst of all time.

I get it that it is a hard decision. That there will be casualties. It's a very tough call to have to make. But you cannot shy away from it either. You have to weigh it against the potentially larger catastrophe of causing another Great Depression, collapse of Govt and possible splintering of the union itself. Then ask -- how many casualties would that cause? I hate this idea of that we should be hiding under our beds, waiting for the bad stuff to pass. That is not what we do. If we are going down, let us at least go down fighting.
 
Joe Fan said:
Back to the original question, the answer is it is looking bad. I originally thought we would be going again by now (mid-May).

If we keep this going for another 2 months, we are looking at potentially losing HALF the American workforce. That could happen. Easily. And, if so, these lockdowns could actually end the United States of America. The situation is that dire. There is a giant debt/unemployment train coming. There will be mortgage failures which will lead to bank failures which will lead to the failure of large corporations (i.e., the large employers). And sooner rather than later.

Even if we re-opened everything today, the snowball is already rolling downhill. It is a crazy idea to think you can just stop a nation’s economy. Ever. For any reason. And then just re-start it like nothing happened? We are about to find out. Stopping this economy may go down as one of the more disastrous decisions in American history. Maybe THE worst of all time.

I get it that it is a hard decision. That there will be casualties. It's a very tough call to have to make. But you cannot shy away from it either. You have to weigh it against the potentially larger catastrophe of causing another Great Depression, collapse of Govt and possible splintering of the union itself. Then ask -- how many casualties would that cause? I hate this idea of that we should be hiding under our beds, waiting for the bad stuff to pass. That is not what we do. If we are going down, let us at least go down fighting.
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We definitely need to open the economy ASAP. But the depression that is coming does not have to be the 2nd great depression. If the government gets out of the way, as they did in 1921, the depression can be short lived.

Hopefully Trump gets reelected and finds his inner-Calvin Coolidge.
 
JF,

If we keep this going for another 2 months, we are looking at potentially losing HALF the American workforce. That could happen. Easily. And, if so, these lockdowns could actually end the United States of America. The situation is that dire.
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Yes, and it is all the fault and hubris of government. The pandemic was going to harm the economy by itself but the degree of harm we are seeing is government. This is central planning wrote large, declaring what businesses are "essential" and "nonessential". It is fascism. We tried it sucks. Let's not ever do it again.
 
We definitely need to open the economy ASAP. But the depression that is coming does not have to be the 2nd great depression. If the government gets out of the way, as they did in 1921, the depression can be short lived.
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4th, the $2T money creation and disbursement will mean that the recovery is slow and long. Only way to change that is to increase reserve requirements of banks, raise Fed rate, and tighten lending laws.

It took us 10 years to get out of the 2008 recession. It will take at least that all other things being equal.
 
Monahorns said:
It took us 10 years to get out of the 2008 recession. It will take at least that all other things being equal
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I don't think it'll take that long unless the government makes it take that long. I think states that react with sanity will recover within a few years. In fact, they might thrive as businesses flea states that are reacting with insanity. Hell, if you're a business in Los Angeles or Alameda County you have to be looking at options for getting out if possible.
 
I don't think it'll take that long unless the government makes it take that long. I think states that react with sanity will recover within a few years. In fact, they might thrive as businesses flea states that are reacting with insanity. Hell, if you're a business in Los Angeles or Alameda County you have to be looking at options for getting out if possible.
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That is my point. The "stimulus" package has already been unleashed on the economy. It may be counter intuitive, but the extra money extends the life of unproductive activities. It slows recovery and ultimately kills economic growth.

It doesn't matter what state a business is in either, because this is the Fed we are talking about.

The government has to get their fascist tentacles out of the economy. They were slowly killing before the lockdowns. The lockdowns are a fast death.
 
$2T so far and now the, gag, Heroes Act. And I predict the Dems will win again. This is a spectacularly idiotic bill.
 
If Trump signs that bill he is selling us all into slavery. The Republican party will be all but gone. Democrats will not only win but there will cease to be anything but Democrats in government.

You guys remember when all those Democrats said they would leave the country if Trump became president, I'm seriously thinking of getting the hell out of this country. Right now Switzerland, Norway, and Finland are looking pretty good.

Or maybe I need to take a page out of Breaking Bad, it seems that if the Democrats win crime will no longer have punishment. I'm over 50 with health issues, what will they do to me in this new era. They are set to release all prisoners over 50 or have health issues.

It's going to be an ugly time to be an American.
 
Monahorns said:
That is my point. The "stimulus" package has already been unleashed on the economy. It may be counter intuitive, but the extra money extends the life of unproductive activities. It slows recovery and ultimately kills economic growth.

It doesn't matter what state a business is in either, because this is the Fed we are talking about.

The government has to get their fascist tentacles out of the economy. They were slowly killing before the lockdowns. The lockdowns are a fast death.
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I don't think it's counterintuitive. If you hamd out cash for not working, people are less likely to work. Makes all the sense in the world. Not every stimulus is equally bad, though I don't see a lot of good in any of it. I think the $600 unemployment supplement is a horrific mistake.

Having said that, I think the real economic fascism will come at the state level. I think the Senate will keep the worst and permanent ideas from becoming law. However, if some crackpot Los Angeles County supervisors decide to do something idiotic, there's no one to check them.
 
What a bunch of time-wasting chodes

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4th_floor said:
We definitely need to open the economy ASAP. But the depression that is coming does not have to be the 2nd great depression. If the government gets out of the way, as they did in 1921, the depression can be short lived.

Hopefully Trump gets reelected and finds his inner-Calvin Coolidge.
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Warren Harding and the Forgotten Depression of 1920 - Intercollegiate Studies Institute: Think. Live Free.
Warren Harding was just Elected Pres in 1920 and he did the opposite of all modern Presidents and completely avoided a Depression in 1920-21. Coolidge was VP then. Anyway, he cut deficits by 50% and paid off Debt with Tax Revenues. The Great Depression came under FDR in 1929 and throughout the 30's by starting "shovel ready" jobs programs and printing more money. Deficits grew big under FDR.

Are we repeating History and then some in 2020?
 
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