Has a party ever ran a new nominee against sitting Pres of their own party?
- Thread starter BrntOrngStmpeDe
- Start date
If Kasich runs and mounts a serious campaign, I'd at least start from the presumption that he gets my vote. Kasich has been my ideal politician since 1993.
As for the Democrats, there are two different kinds of far-left Democrat. You've got your Bernie-types who are far-left by being ideological democratic socialists, but many of these guys (especially Sanders) are less militant on identity politics and social issues, because they sees them (and rightly so) as distractions. For example, Sanders has a pro-choice record, but he has no problem backing socially moderate and even conservative Democrats who agree with his economic agenda.
And then you have the reverse. You have Democrats who are far-left on social issues and identity politics but aren't ideological democratic socialists. They believe in the welfare state and will back tax increases from time to time, but they're not interested in making major changes to the economic order and will even play ball on some corporate sleaziness.
I don't see a Bernie-type nomination happening, because the corporate backers of the Democratic Party would make such a nomination insurmountably difficult. The superdelegates didn't cost Sanders the nomination as some (most notably, Trump) have claimed, but that system is in place to stack the deck against a latter-day George McGovern (or a modern day Bernie Sanders) by effectively putting them about 20 points in the hole. Unless the party is extremely unified (and it isn't), that's damn near impossible to overcome. However, I could see the other kind of far-left Democrat winning the nomination, because the corporate backers don't care about social issues and generally don't care about identity politics (though that has its limits).
I actually think a Bernie-type (though not necessarily Bernie himself) might have a better shot in the general. He or she will present vulnerabilities on fiscal issues that would make blue states closer than they'd otherwise be. For example, he might only beat Trump by 3.7 million votes in California rather than 4.3 million, but with Trump as the GOP nominee again, he's not going to lose any states that Hillary won. However, by not shoving identity politics, transgender issues, and abortion in everybody's face every chance he gets, he has a chance to actually flip states that are seriously in play like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
I wasn't too worried about a Clinton win affecting the market. I mean we just had 8 years of a European type collectivist running the country, how much worse could it get.
Clean
5,000+ Posts
McCain, Romney, and Rubio are currently at odds with Trump over Charlottesville. They think that the antifas are American heroes keeping those nasty neo-Nazis and racists beat down (literally). If senior party members like those three have moved that far Left, I do believe that the GOP nomination will be a dog fight.
Brad Austin
2,500+ Posts
DT has hijacked the Rep party more than most realize. No way a Rep steals his nomination, not happening. Most Reps believe the known names are the swamp and hold serious grudges for their lack of support of the man they voted in office.
BTW, Kasich is overwhelmingly viewed by Reps as a closet Dem and traitor. He's done making a serious push on the Rep side. Dems won't support him, not radical enough.
As for the left, they can run the smoothest orator around but will still have to campaign on their insane anti-American policies that greatly harm working class Americans.
Don't forget the overwhelming distain for propaganda MSM, elites, and Hollywood. As soon as they start forcing their opinions and demanding the public to bow down to their preferences, the war will be back on and even more contentious than 2016,
BTW, Kasich is overwhelmingly viewed by Reps as a closet Dem and traitor. He's done making a serious push on the Rep side. Dems won't support him, not radical enough.
As for the left, they can run the smoothest orator around but will still have to campaign on their insane anti-American policies that greatly harm working class Americans.
Don't forget the overwhelming distain for propaganda MSM, elites, and Hollywood. As soon as they start forcing their opinions and demanding the public to bow down to their preferences, the war will be back on and even more contentious than 2016,
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Brad Austin
2,500+ Posts
Here's a just released Marist poll that touched on the 2020 subject. Most of the questions largely related to DT and his actions. He received a 35% approval rating.
The poll was slightly slanted towards Dems (+6) and women (+6). Women should only be sampled by +2 according to population breakdown by gender. Dems should be sampled no higher than +4. But all in all the sampling was much less slanted than most polls.
The methodology used is a tad questionable as they contacted 1,009 random people 18 years and up. No other qualifications but being an adult who answered the phone.
I bet over half had no knowledge of many of the issues at question or didn't recognize some people they asked about. Not to mention the majority likely doesn't vote.
Once they remove the registered voter requirement, it's now swimming in the deep end of the very general public. Not a very enlightened place to find answers.
But overall the methodology was more credibly representative than most I've seen. Here's the results pertaining to 2020. Remember DT received a 35% approval rating.
"Republicans and Republican leaning independents overwhelmingly support President Trump over a hypothetical primary challenge from John Kasich, 64% to 23%.
If Vice President Mike Pence chose to challenge his boss, the contest is closer. In this scenario, Trump receives 56% to 33% for Pence. The key here are independents who lean toward the Republican Party. Only 2 points separate Trump, 44%, and Pence, 42%, among this group of voters. Among those who identify strictly as Republicans, Trump, 61%, has a 32-point lead over Pence, 29%."
Some refuse to accept it including Rep leaders, but DT owns the Rep party now. The MAGA movement holds majority and they're fiercely loyal to DT because he's unapologetically loyal to them.
The poll was slightly slanted towards Dems (+6) and women (+6). Women should only be sampled by +2 according to population breakdown by gender. Dems should be sampled no higher than +4. But all in all the sampling was much less slanted than most polls.
The methodology used is a tad questionable as they contacted 1,009 random people 18 years and up. No other qualifications but being an adult who answered the phone.
I bet over half had no knowledge of many of the issues at question or didn't recognize some people they asked about. Not to mention the majority likely doesn't vote.
Once they remove the registered voter requirement, it's now swimming in the deep end of the very general public. Not a very enlightened place to find answers.
But overall the methodology was more credibly representative than most I've seen. Here's the results pertaining to 2020. Remember DT received a 35% approval rating.
"Republicans and Republican leaning independents overwhelmingly support President Trump over a hypothetical primary challenge from John Kasich, 64% to 23%.
If Vice President Mike Pence chose to challenge his boss, the contest is closer. In this scenario, Trump receives 56% to 33% for Pence. The key here are independents who lean toward the Republican Party. Only 2 points separate Trump, 44%, and Pence, 42%, among this group of voters. Among those who identify strictly as Republicans, Trump, 61%, has a 32-point lead over Pence, 29%."
Some refuse to accept it including Rep leaders, but DT owns the Rep party now. The MAGA movement holds majority and they're fiercely loyal to DT because he's unapologetically loyal to them.
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I have no idea how much Donald Trump is enjoying being President. He's 71 now and based on the frequency and duration of his vacations, he may not enjoy giving up a billionaire lifestyle. I think for most presidents the White House offered an upgrade in living quarters. For Trump ... it's probably what I'd feel like sharing a dorm room at Jester.
I'm not a polling expert but I would attribute this mostly to name recognition.Here's a just released Marist poll that touched on the 2020 subject. Most of the questions largely related to DT and his actions. He received a 35% approval rating.
The poll was slightly slanted towards Dems (+6) and women (+6). Women should only be sampled by +2 according to population breakdown by gender. Dems should be sampled no higher than +4. But all in all the sampling was much less slanted than most polls.
The methodology used is a tad questionable as they contacted 1,009 random people 18 years and up. No other qualifications but being an adult who answered the phone.
I bet over half had no knowledge of many of the issues at question or didn't recognize some people they asked about. Not to mention the majority likely doesn't vote.
Once they remove the registered voter requirement, it's now swimming in the deep end of the very general public. Not a very enlightened place to find answers.
But overall the methodology was more credibly representative than most I've seen. Here's the results pertaining to 2020. Remember DT received a 35% approval rating.
"Republicans and Republican leaning independents overwhelmingly support President Trump over a hypothetical primary challenge from John Kasich, 64% to 23%.
If Vice President Mike Pence chose to challenge his boss, the contest is closer. In this scenario, Trump receives 56% to 33% for Pence. The key here are independents who lean toward the Republican Party. Only 2 points separate Trump, 44%, and Pence, 42%, among this group of voters. Among those who identify strictly as Republicans, Trump, 61%, has a 32-point lead over Pence, 29%."
Some refuse to accept it including Rep leaders, but DT owns the Rep party now. The MAGA movement holds majority and they're fiercely loyal to DT because he's unapologetically loyal to them.
I35
5,000+ Posts
The MSM are really good at making people think that everyone is thinking a certain way. There is a silent majority that is way bigger than they want to admit. Usually when a party loses big in an election they tend to soften their stance and move closer to the middle. These morons on the left doubled down. Here is another mistake the left made. When I say the left that includes their media networks. They began even before President Trump took office bashing him and trying to impeach him and telling everyone they were right about him. Normal how it works they try to come across as supportive then when mistakes are made they pounce on it. It's too late for that now and everyone is just rolling their eyes at their nightly headlines about Trump getting two scoops of ice cream and everyone else gets one.
The only trend we had was a bad one from where Obama was taking us. Even before the ink dried on Trump signing executive orders to stop all the regulations that Obama signed made more improvements than the last 8 years. Just that alone was huge for our country. Now it's projected that the next GDP that comes out will be around the range of 3.72%. Obama never got the GDP over 3% in 8 years. Let me remind you that he's the only President to fail to do that in all of his 8 years. You almost have to try to not accomplish that to not get over 3% GDP. Our capitalist county is made the thrive and it would take a really bad President to not accomplish that.
Totally agree. Like it or not, Trump owns it. I am hopeful that means the destruction of both parties.
Brad Austin
2,500+ Posts
I see your point to a small degree but these face-off numbers were based on republicans and republican leaning independents.
The biggest group in the sample by far was non-leaning, neutral independents, which is what most unengaged folks would've selected.
Most of the Rep and Rep leaning groups would remember Kasich very well from the lengthy dogfight campaign between he, Cruz, and DT.
The many Rep debates and primaries had huge audiences and voter turn out as the public was more engaged than ever. Kasich was a major player for a long while.
As for Pence's name recognition, dude is the freakin' VP.
In a simple case of DT's better name recognition, his awful 35% approval rating would likely work against him with many choosing any other option not named Trump.
But really, how many disapprove of DT, don't know Kasich or the VP, yet still claimed to be Rep or Rep leaning?
The vast majority in those categories knew the players and DT crushed both guys. Even a generous adjustment for name recognition wouldn't make a dent in the huge deficits.
Put me down as a Rep or Rep leaner Mr. Poll Taker, yet I have no freakin' clue who one of the top two challengers to the Rep nomination last year is, nor the Rep VP.
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Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
There isn't any doubt that the talk of deregulation and installment of Goldman Sachs cronies in the administration was looked at favorably to the market. The promise of change though is a bubble in the stock market. Absent actual tax changes and banking regulation changes and that balloon will deflate. Of course, significant removal of the banking regulations and we'll head towards another crash meaning the paper wealth created was only temporary.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
80k votes in 3 states decided the election. That's it.
Yes, that's true, but I think I'm missing the point here.
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
Sorry, that's the extent of flipping the vote. I agree with Biden that the Dem's lost their foundational message of fighting for the middle class. If they can somehow find that message again the block they need to overturn is pretty small. Some like to continually post a red land area map that is heavily red. In the end, HRC would be in the White House if she simply slightly reduced the margins in the rural areas. So, I agree with you that Bernie's message sans the social issues would be enough to garner the White House, particularly because by the time the election rolls around, Trump will have 35% - 45% of the voters locked into an anti-Trump vote.
The margins in those states was very tight, and the Democrats could take back those voters. However, there's also significant room for Trump to gain, because HRC still got in the 30s among whites without college degrees in the key states (WI, MI, and PA). If Democrats are more worried about Civil War statues and political correctness than they are about healthcare costs, taxes, and the economy, they could go further into the hole. They need a readjustment of their priorities.
HRC might be in the white house if she wasn't a liar and crooked. Hell, I might have voted for her if she would have owned up to her transgressions but instead she took many voters as idiots to try and make us believe she was a good person. I certainly didn't want Trump in office but in my opinion we got the lesser of two evils running the show.
Actually, it was the creation of regulations that caused the last economic crash, not the lack thereof.
I35
5,000+ Posts
"Look, the average democrat voter is just plain stupid. They're easy to manipulate. That's the easy part." Hillary Clinton
Seattle Husker
10,000+ Posts
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