General Presidential Campaign: Trump vs Hillary

texas_ex2000 said:
Deez was...ahem...one degree from Slick Willie. I feel like I need to sterilize my screen or get shots just reading your posts now.
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I sure as hell wasn't. I wouldn't go where his nasty-*** junk had been. He's Tommy Lee filthy. It's possible that she lied, but considering all the circumstantial evidence, that would have made that highly improbable.

In all seriousness, it was fascinating to talk to somebody who was that close to the action. She came on after Monica's internship, so she didn't know her or have personal knowledge of the affair. However, she understood the program and could call BS on things the White House was claiming. For example, once Bill was caught, the White House floated the rumor that Monica came onto him - was bending over with a thong, etc. She confirmed that interns couldn't get near the President (especially by themselves) unless he summoned them (which he would virtually never have a legitimate reason to do). In fact, she only saw him once - when he came into the Oval Office for their group photo and never met him.
 
Polls are just starting to reflect (partially in most cases) the recent turn of events. We won't get a clear wide picture of the FBI damage until later in week. Today so far...

LA Times: Trump +4
ABC/ WaPo: Clinton +1
IBD/TIPP: Clinton +1
Rasmussen: Clinton +3

Remington:
PA - Clinton +2
NC - Trump +4
CO - Clinton +1
NV - Trump +4

Remington (10/30):
FL - Trump +4
VA - Clinton +4
OH - Trump +5
WI - Clinton +5

According to latest battle ground polls, Trump is leading in AZ, FL, GA, IA, NC, NV, and OH. On the toss up map that puts it at 265 Trump, 263 Clinton.

After those only Maine District 2 and Colorado are left as toss-ups. Which means Colorado could decide the whole thing. Clinton has now shrunk from +8 on 10/16 to +1 on 10/30.

They didn't even consider PA a battle ground on latest map and now it's in play with HRC only +2.

Sorry but we got a dead heat, Folks and Trump not only has a path, but his getting to 265 and hoping for PA or CO is what polls are saying. An upset there is another path if he lost CO.

Nationally it's just as promising...

When hard Lib leaning ABC/WaPo has it by a single point, you know things are serious. Was HRC +9 just 5 days ago. Also HRC has higher unfavorable now at 60 to Trump's 58.

Rasmussen had the two tied just a few days ago on 10/28. Also this poll is a 3-night rolling poll and they stated only the last night came after the FBI announcement.

Since many still believe the polls are skewed, this election is very much up for grabs. First, how much conviction will casual HRC leaners have to vote now? How strong will Trump's support show now that he's within striking distance?

Then we must account for those who simply won't state their intention to vote Trump. Plus there's still some poll skewing with more Dems being sampled.

This one is getting tight and there's no denying. If it's within 2 as today's average is showing, don't be shocked to see a Brexit result.

Since some of these polls are still not including full sampling after FBI, expect it to close even more later in week.
 
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Mr. Deez said:
I don't think you can say that with much certainty. Though she's gaining on Trump in the race to the bottom, the polls suggest that she's still winning the election.
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Nate Silver now thinks the polls have huge systemic error (which I have claimed all along).
 
Brad Austin said:
Since many still believe the polls are skewed, this election is very much up for grabs.
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The likely losing candidate's backers often think the polls are skewed. I could see a 1 or as much as 2 point bias in the polls in the individual states caused by assuming 2012-level turnout by Democrats and/or "Bradley effect" Trump voters, but I don't buy the suggestion that there are major flaws in the polls. If she's up 3 - 5 points, Trump's not likely to win that state.
 
Deez, feel free to peruse how the battle ground states are doing. Adjust your electoral map to reflect the latest polls and not averages diluting the recent turn of events.

Real Clear uses averages when you select their no toss ups. The only way to do it correctly when new events happen is to decide toss-ups with the latest polls.

Strictly by latest battleground polls the last two days, Trump is at 265. CO has now shrunk 7 points to +1 HRC. PA has shrunk 6 points to +2 in just a few days.

He flips either CO or PA and Trump is Prez. Do some more current poll research on the electoral map, you'll see HRC is in serious danger of the upset. And that's even before any adjustment for poll skewing, which I guarantee will have an effect.
 
My ballot was mailed in today. After a lot of consternation, I voted for HRC. As I've said all along, I intended to vote for Johnson/Weld if the vote wasn't going to be close. It would be a protest vote against both major party candidates.

Given the movement of the polls towards a dead heat I felt compelled to go with whom I felt would screw up the country the least. Unfortunately, I'll take "status quo", corruption and all, over whatever Trump intends to bring to the White House.
 
Mr. Deez said:
I sure as hell wasn't. I wouldn't go where his nasty-*** junk had been. He's Tommy Lee filthy. It's possible that she lied, but considering all the circumstantial evidence, that would have made that highly improbable.

In all seriousness, it was fascinating to talk to somebody who was that close to the action. She came on after Monica's internship, so she didn't know her or have personal knowledge of the affair. However, she understood the program and could call BS on things the White House was claiming. For example, once Bill was caught, the White House floated the rumor that Monica came onto him - was bending over with a thong, etc. She confirmed that interns couldn't get near the President (especially by themselves) unless he summoned them (which he would virtually never have a legitimate reason to do). In fact, she only saw him once - when he came into the Oval Office for their group photo and never met him.
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Slick Deez from now on. :)
 
Mr. Deez said:
How exactly are you getting to 265? What states are included in that?
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Toss-ups states listed on RCP and latest polls since FBI event...

OH - DT +5
FL - DT +4 (was also DT +4 in NYT before FBI news)
NC - DT +2
NV - DT +4
IA - Tied (leaning to DT as he's only one to have lead in past IA poll)
AZ - DT +2 (taken days before latest event)
GA - DT +7 (taken days before latest event)
CO - HC +1
ME2 - HC +3 (taken before latest event)

And now PA should be included as a toss-up with HRC down to +2 on 10/30

Tied in IA and leading in OH, FL, NC, NV, AZ, and GA...it's Clinton 273, Trump 265.

Sure she could steal IA, NC, or AZ, but I doubt it. IA has yet to favor HC in a poll, he recently flipped NC after FBI news, and DT was leading in AZ even before FBI.

If DT holds those as the polls are saying and can flip CO or PA (both +2 or less), he wins.

I admit all this is fluid, but the latest polls reflect 265 and within a close flip from winning. Since the momentum is likely his til the end, it should be very close.
 
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Seattle Husker said:
Unfortunately, I'll take "status quo", corruption and all, over whatever Trump intends to bring to the White House.
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SeattleHusker, I understand where you're coming from. I'm not happy with either candidate, but I took the opposite view - four more years of the same stuff we just finished is unacceptable, so a change from that is better. Thus, I voted (while holding my nose) for Trump.

Sad thing - as unpopular and untrustworthy as Hillary is perceived to be, any decent GOP candidate with no baggage would be winning in a runaway.
 
HornHuskerDad said:
I'm not happy with either candidate, but I took the opposite view - four more years of the same stuff we just finished is unacceptable, so a change from that is better. Thus, I voted (while holding my nose) for Trump.
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This is exactly the way a stronger majority of Independents will eventually vote IMHO.

I always believed most people would bail on the defiance and 3rd party proclamations and choose sides between the two contenders.

In the end and after this latest FBI news, that bodes very well for DT.

I think Kaine is an incompetent buffoon just as some view Trump. But I'd vote for him in heartbeat over HRC who committed treason using our Gov as a pay for play scheme and handling classified info as freely as she demanded regardless of the law.

Jack*ss behavior is jack*ss behavior, but criminal is criminal. I don't want to hear nonsense about sexual assault victims who never said a word until the very end of the election, conveniently have no proof, and many refuted by witnesses they mentioned.

HRC should be in jail and anyone being honest with themselves knows she committed several felonies with that personal server handling classified info, and the Clinton Foundation scheme.

One needs to check their morals if boarish demeanor and/or perceived incompetence is worse than proven criminal acts, extreme corruption, and selling gov favors to foreign entities. And it's not like her ultra-lib policies are superior either. Geez man.
 
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theiioftx said:
Slick Deez from now on. :)
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If you knew me back then you'd know how ridiculous this is. I was 21, was somewhat nerdy, and had very little rap. Still not sure what a cute little brunette girl saw in me back then. She could have done better.

FWIW, I was aware enough not to drink crappy beer.
 
Mr. Deez said:
Not so. The "relationship" was going on during the 1996 campaign, but the story didn't break until a good 14 months after the election.
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I guess I got it mixed up with some other the other 4-5 Clinton sex scandals; Gennifer Flowers, Jones, etc. Let's put it this way, we knew he wasn't a good person by then for sure.
 
Clean said:
I guess I got it mixed up with some other the other 4-5 Clinton sex scandals; Gennifer Flowers, Jones, etc. Let's put it this way, we knew he wasn't a good person by then for sure.
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Flowers was known about even in 1992. People just dismissed it as a private matter. Jones and Kathleen Willey had made their allegations by '96, but Bill denied everything, and the media never took them seriously. Monica somewhat changed the game because there was a criminal violation.
 
BTW...I bet Libs are sharting in their undies about now. Latest battle ground polling shows Trump a very possible flip of CO or PA away from winning.

Also shows Reps holding a 51-49 lead in Senate. Of course the House will stay Rep.

Wonder how the thought of Trump winning, reps holding Congress, and a certain supreme court conservative majority (with Trump and Senate) is looking.

A clean sweep loss of gov power is now very possible. What a change of events.
 
I35 said:
Didn't the Democrat Mayor of DC Marion Barry get re-elected even after caught on video snorting cocaine?
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Barry was convicted of drug possession late in this third or fourth term as mayor and convicted shortly before the election. He lost in a bad way, then went to the slammer.

After serving time, he ran again and won. His campaign slogan was funny in a not-so-funny way -- something like "He's not perfect, but he's perfect for DC".
 


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HornHuskerDad said:
SeattleHusker, I understand where you're coming from. I'm not happy with either candidate, but I took the opposite view - four more years of the same stuff we just finished is unacceptable, so a change from that is better. Thus, I voted (while holding my nose) for Trump.

Sad thing - as unpopular and untrustworthy as Hillary is perceived to be, any decent GOP candidate with no baggage would be winning in a runaway.
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I've said multiple times that if Kasich or maybe Rubio were at the top of the "R" ticket I'd be voting for them. I can understand why you stand on the opposite side of the coin. Honestly, I feel the primary processes failed us in this instance but that's a reflection of the primary voters.
 
Eric Holder criticizing Comey wasn't a surprise but former Bush AG's Gonzalez and Mukasey criticizing him were.

With that said, I still think Comey is principled and unbridled by political pressures. What's laughable is seeing some critics of his earlier decision not to recommend charges now celebrate him and vice versa for HRC supporters criticizing him now. It's politics like this that force good people out of public office.
 
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