Exit Polls: Obama Smoking HRC

sii, you have to concede that with the loss of NJ, Mass, CA and TN, Obama's momentum has been slowed. He was polling ahead in CA and NJ. That can only be a disappointment to see these results. It is far from over, but had he won NJ, Mass and CA, it may be all but over. The momentum has changed. Not necessarily shifted, but Hillary has taken some incredible shots, including a wave that is rarely seen in politics and she is not only surviving, she is winning. That is a disappointment to Obama.

Yes, it is a delegate game. Hillary is winning that game. And the stories tomorrow will be that Hillary wins big states. That plays in the minds of voters in the remaining states. Just ask Rudy.
 
Obama held ground today, but didn't gain any momentum. Same with Hillary. One thing you need to understand is that lot of mail in ballots (early votes) would have been hugely in favor of Hillary. This is probably one the actual results favor Hillary more than exit polls show.

On the democratic side this is going to go all the way. The more it continues, better for Obama. I don't think Hillary's cadre is anywhere as enthusiastic as Obama's. Also Obama will have an advantage in fund raising due to his large number of contributors.
 
laphroaig makes excellent points. recall GWB won the electoral college losing very few states to Kerry -- west coast, northeast, Great Lakes. That's it. However, it still comes down to turnout. That used to be a Democratic advantage, but not anymore. The key issue is whether social conservatives turnout in states like Ohio, Florida, Tennesse, Missouri, W. Virginia, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico and other states that are either true swing states or states that typically go Red but always in close elections. Based on this primary season, turnout will be key because the Dems are pretty happy about their two choices.

Social conservatives are not opposed to just sitting one out. What they must realize though is this is the DEFINITIVE abortion election. However, all of their talking heads have done their best to be destructive to this Republican primary election.
 
No, the polls in CA and NJ were wildly divergent. Clearly, the likely voter models are being disintegrated by this campaign. Clinton had very large leads in both of those states and Obama wasn't even sniffing ~40% until the past week - which means his campaign has done yeoman's work to even get within shooting distance in a very short time, in states that Clinton advanced and targeted very early on, designed to be major blowouts that would vanquish any remaining opponents by tonight.

Winning 10+ states and even putting NJ and CA in play is an incredible accomplishment for Obama's campaign, and no amount of spin or carefully sculpted last-minute media 'expectations' can negate that fact.

And big ups to Huck - he's holdin' 'em down in the Dirty South - Tennessee and Alabama and WV. Holla!
 
Just an interesting observation:

Obama got more votes in New York than Hillary did in Illinois.

Obama got more votes in Illinois than Hillary did in NY.

Just saying.

Hook'em!!!
texasflag.gif
 
With Hillary now winning Cali it has to be a huge momentum for her. She won the biggest prizes despite the media, celeb, and state democratic leaders endorsing Obama. Her winning Mass (I guess that ansered if Kennedy endorsement meant anything), CA and NJ were huge.
 
Hillary is holding her own.

McCain is solidifying his front-runner status.

As for the battle of the pollsters, survey USA is kicking the crap out of Zogby.
 
She was expected to win the coasts and he the middle - so actually he won a few that he wasn't expected too.

But they are still going to be pretty even WRT delegates.
 
Hillary was supposed to win CA. Just a few days back she had double digits lead here. If she had lost any of CA or NJ, it would have been a big loss. Winning for her is holding serve. Any of the really contested states went to Obama (Delaware, Connecticut and possibly Missouri).
 
Looks like Obama is going to end up with MO after MSNBC called it for Hillary

thats 12 states he may take tonight
 
It is about delegates, not "states won."

The polls showing a huge Obama surge just didn't play out.

I think Obama still has momentum on his side, but it just wasn't as big as thought.
 
I know that...but it still impressive to see Obama take that many states when a matter of weeks ago TONS of people were claiming he wouldnt do that well tonight

MO is an important state and it just went to Obama after being called for Hillary earlier

He's prob going to end up with about 13 won...that gets you a lot of delegates and shows he can win across a wide range

A point that was just being made on CNN was that Obama has been doing so well after people had time to get to know him

He just hasnt had enough time for some area's like CA...but was making progess there. I think the final # there when its all said and done will be closer than it looked earlier tonight

The longer this race goes on its not going to favor Hillary
 
It looks like it is going to be 14-8 in favor of Obama. Only saving grace for Hillary is that she did not lose NJ or CA. Losing either would have been bad. Losing CA would have been a killer.
 
The polls have grossly overestimated Obama several times now. New Hampshire, some California and the New Jersey exit poll quickly come to mind.
 
MSNBC's chuck todd ran some numbers and thinks when all is said and done tonight, it'll be 841-837 Obama...of course that could change

Also, NM still needs to come in, but it's a caucus and the exit polls showed 47-47 among women and men favoring obama by 14. I think Obama will take NM, and that'd be another good state to add to the pile.
 
This outcome tonight is a huge success for Obama.

On January 20th, Clinton had a 20 point lead in the national poll and now he takes more states and stays within a narrow margin for delegates.

Clinton appears to have largely tapped out her big money donations while Obama has a much greater small contributor pool that can donate again. Big Mo is definitely on Obama's side with a lot more in store. People are still catching on to Obama - it's why people have been saying that if Super Tues had occurred next week, the eclipse might have been complete.

.
 
Octavian, it almost seemed to me that Obama was winning areas that are predominantly Republican, i.e., suburbs and whites. I realize it's only within the Dem voters, but still it made me think that he could possibly stand a chance of appealing across many lines, rather than just the normal blue-collar, minority voters that HC is getting. Kinda strange. But, I definitely like!

Hook'em!!!
texasflag.gif
 
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