Electoral College May 17, 2012

[Horns11]

Well, the +5 is solely from the one 10 days ago. Even though the average also comes out to that.

 

[Nuclear Bear]

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[NightFlyer]

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[NightFlyer]

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[majorwhiteapples]

In reading all your posts and looking at all your links, and doing some research.

I have it currently at:

Obama 258
Romney 249

with Virginia and Ohio as the deciding states. Obama would need either or and Romney needs both. This is as of Memorial Day weekend.

 

[majorwhiteapples]

I would now have Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin as the deciding states. Obama is still leading in Wisconsin but the ground swell is against him.

 

[gecko]

I stand by my statement, that this is Romney's to lose. Obama has nothing to run on and his attempts to make Romney the issue have failed completely. If Romney (and the R surrogates) can stay on message and keep hammering at the economy, debt and jobs...he will win.

And there is nothing Obama can do about it.

 

[Horns11]

I think the Walker recall will only strengthen the resolve of the SuperPACs to get Wisconsin for Obama. During exit polling last night, when asked who they would vote for President in November, it was something like a Obama +11. Which means closer to Obama +6, but still a hefty (and vocal) lead. The Reagan/Nixon elections that swayed Wisconsin to the right are pretty distant now.

I think Pennsylvania is all but done for blue. The gap seems to be getting further to the left with each public poll.

 

[gecko]

Horn11 - Those were the same exit polls that said it was razor tight....like 50/50.

 

[Michtex]

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[majorwhiteapples]

Exit polls after elections are usually crap. As is the case in most of these exit polls especially in a state election, they are taken from the closest polling place to the hotel where the particular media outlet is staying and this outlet was CNN.

CNN does not do any structured statistical analysis.

While I believe that Obama is leading in the state, the margins in 2000 and 2004 were not that big. I see Wisconsin as being a toss up on election night, as of today.

We will see more realistic polls in the next 2-3 weeks for Wisconsin. Right now I have them as a toss up, with Romney gaining on Obama.

 

[HornHuskerDad]

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[Mr. Deez]

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[gecko]

Michtex - I saw an Obama +11 reported along with the 50/50 exit polls on the Kudlow Report. Polls had not closed.

 

[Nuclear Bear]

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[Horn6721]

How reliable are the Wisc exit polls when the same polls that had the Barrett alomst winning and CNN was still using exit polls and had it " very close at 9 pm?

so the exit polls were unreliable as predictors of a recall win yet some think the polls are reliable for a BO vote?

 

[majorwhiteapples]

6721, you know what they are right. We spent so much more money then them, Barrett was a weak candidate. 2000 and 2004 weren't decided by just a few thousand votes. Obama has Wisconsin sewed up, 2012 is the same as 2008. Nothing to see here, we won't bother you anymore about Wisconsin. Moving on to other things.

 

[Horn6721]

MWA
Once you explained it now understand.

You da Man

 

[Horns11]

Yeah... John Kerry winning Wisconsin (let alone ANY state) isn't indicative of Wisc. leaning blue.

 

[majorwhiteapples]

Just wanted to let everyone know that the polls post Recall election, not CNN's ******** exiting polls, are showing Romney up anywhere from 1-3% in Wisconsin.

 

[majorwhiteapples]

Well I think Ryan puts Wisconsin in a Leans Romney status, so where are we now.

In my opinion:
Obama 221
Romney 201

Still up for Grabs:
Nevada 6
Colorado 9
Iowa 6
Michigan 16
Ohio 18
New Ham 4
Virginia 13
North Carol 15
Flordia 29

This election is going to be real close, from what I gleam from the liberal and conservative media talking heads.

I personnally have Florida, NC and Virginia as Romney's, but I have nothing to back that up. I think Ryan gives Romney Wisconsin and Iowa. Which puts Romney at 264, but this part is my opinion.

 

[gecko]

I actually wonder if the Ryan pick is an insurance policy to potentially replace Ohio with one or two other states. Ohio is looking increasingly difficulty for Romney.

 

[majorwhiteapples]

Geck:

I think it puts Wisonsin and Iowa in the Romney column. I also think once the truth comes out about Ryan's Medicare vs. Obamacare, this puts Florida in the Romney column. So yes, I think you are correct, however it is still a long way to go to give up on Ohio or any of these states for either candidate.

 

[Horns11]

"I also think once the truth comes out about Ryan's Medicare vs. Obamacare, this puts Florida in the Romney column."

I feel the opposite is true. The difference (especially in the ads that will play there) is "scaling back" vs. "eliminating." It's just not going to play well with the old people, plus Rubio didn't end up on the ticket. Independent Hispanics will surely stay left.

The election will come down to Florida, and I think it won't be as close as the GOP wants it. Obama by about 3 percent there. Which seals it up... even with losing Ohio or Wisconsin.

 

[Nuclear Bear]

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[majorwhiteapples]

Hey Nuclear, there has not been a poll since Saturday, but then again, you are incapable of having a discussion about anything reletive. Thanks for playing though....please go away unless you can add something with substance, thanks.

 

[majorwhiteapples]

Horns11, I have been following Florida pretty closely, and I think Rubio has been winning over that state for the past 3-4 months. He is out there almost every day and is extremely popular in Florida. If he stays active with the Romney campaign, which he will, he will be the top surogate for Romney and he will make up 3% very easily. As far as Independent Hispanics, remember the heritage and the religion. Hispanics traditionally like common qualities between people and Ryan being Catholic might prove to be the sway some of those indies may need. Again, this is just my opinion and thoughts, but Florida with Rubio was a lean Romnney for sure, I still think it is a Toss UP at this point.

 

[majorwhiteapples]

One other thing, as someone mentioned, Ryan puts a few more states into play or more for Romney. I think Ryan helps in Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, where as I think Rubio only really helped in Florida, Nevada and Colorado........just more opinions and thoughts.....

 

[I35]

I have found that the polls always seem to look better for the left than right. We see it over and over how the actual results are not what the polls show. They may get the winner right more times than not, but it always seems to show the right actually does better than the polls before the election show. We see it over and over. The last election was the Wisconsin recall. It was suppose to be neck in neck and Walker won soundly.

 

[biganakhanhda]

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