Electoral College May 17, 2012

majorwhiteapples

majorwhiteapples

5,000+ Posts
I think most people would agree that strong Republican and Democratic states put the EC at or around:

Obama 217
Romney 191
Undec 130

Toss ups or slight leans Include:
NV-6
CO-9
IA-6
WI-10
NH-4
PA-20
OH-18
VA-13
NC-15
FL-29
Nebraska and Maine are included in the totals for each candidate but they give their electoral votes discretion based on how their districts voted. I think WI will have a better feel for in a month. NV is looking towards Romney, IA and NH are leaning Obama.

I believe that FL and NC are locks for Romney. That is 32 votes. VA, PA and OH or 51 votes are going to be real close.

It is going to be close in either direction.
 
Nevada has likely voters polling at Obama +8 as of two weeks ago. That's probably even closer to the midline than the registered voters polling. I don't think Nevada is going to be a problem for Obama.

PA is going to be the most interesting of the swings. The likely voter polling is almost dead even, and the registered voter polling is Obama +8 from May 1st. It usually swings toward the likely voter samples at the end of the summer.
 
Sorry, for NV I was looking at the Senate race, you are correct. I also looked at NC and NH, NC is currently a comfortable Romney state, may change later after the gay marriage thing dies down. NH is a slight Romney lean at the moment.
 
The "problem areas" for Obama right now are CO, FL, IA, NH, OH, VA, and WI. I think Arizona, Missouri, and NC are all-but sewn up for the GOP.

Obama can actually win the general election without FL, although if I was his campaign coordinator I wouldn't pin my hopes on that. The most recent LV (likely voter) poll had him up by 1 percent, and that will only shift to the right as November nears. So I'd put that as a Romney win right now. +29

Ohio is an interesting lot. For a while, Obama was in the +4-8 percent range for LVs, but in one last week, he was only up 1 percent by RVs. That's a HUGE shift. Unless some weird announcement from the White House comes about saving Toledo's economy, I think it ends up at the feet of Romney. +18

Next is Virginia. The polling data is all over the place. There hasn't been a reliable one since about April 23, but a lot has happened since then. I think Romney ends up with it because of the gay marriage thing. +13

Unfortunately, I think that's where the party comes close but not enough.

CO: Too many hippies. Some RV polls had Obama up by 13 as of last month.
IA: A state that has reaped a lot of federal benefits (corn and flooding). I don't think they renege on their half of the deal.
NH: Usually the closest of the New England states, but overall too many influenced by the politics of the area.
WI: Scott Walker backlash. I think Obama will carry it even though right now it looks pretty close.

That would make the final tally Obama 272, Romney 266.

Plus, a lot can change between now and the convention and debates. Maybe Romney will annihilate Obama in debates, but I doubt it. Maybe a democrat lean that had been mostly set (PA) decides to switch it up. Who knows?
 
It's way too early to make predictions. I think you can calculate the slam dunk states. We know Obama will carry states like California, Massachusetts, Vermont, New York, etc. We know Romney will carry states like Utah, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, etc. Those states are hardcore partisan, and they won't even listen to other party's candidates.

However, I don't think it's possible to predict states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Colorado, etc. It depends on what the economy looks like six months from now, how the debates go, etc. Far too many variables could come into play to make any kind of educated prediction.
 
It is sad how stupid Texas voters are that our state is never in the discussion. Seriously, voters reelected governor good hair simply b/c they wanted him to be governor when he ran for President. Now that that is bust we have to live with him in the governor's seat for longer.

Imagine how interesting things would be if politicians actually came to Texas doing hardcore campaigning and got us discussing politics on the streets. I am hoping one day our voters in the state of Texas come out of our locked in political coma.
 
horn:

Please take your Texas Politics discussion to another post this is irrelevant to the Electoral College discussion.

Thank you.
smile.gif
 
Wisconsin as of May 9th Rasmussen Poll has Walker at 50% and the other guy at 45%.

I also heard or read somewhere that the DNC pulled all funding out of Wisconsin, not sure where I heard that.....
 
If Romney can stay on message and not get distracted, this really is his to lose. The first evidence that he "gets it" came this week when he repudiated the Super Pac that planned on hammering BO on some new Rev Wright stuff.
Don't take the bait Mitt.....its the economy and that's all that matters. Take Jeb Bush as your VP and you can be the Competence ticket vs the Hope and Fail ticket.
 
I suspect, based upon absolutley nothing other than hunch and observations about human nature, that the debates will be more critical than usual. They will put lie to the Democratic narrative that Romney is unlikeable and weird (I think he is an OK nerd - I like him fine) and the Republican narrative that Obama is in over his head and cant put two words together without a teleprompter (he was a socratic lecturer, for chrissakes, and handled himself pretty well in the lions den in Baltimore Transcript atThe Link )
As many have observed, events between now and then and resultant national mood will determine turnout, and whether independent voters buy Obama's spin that he has been slogging out of a combination of Bush mire and worldwide depression, or Romney's spin that Mitt's policies, which he must insist are not Bush redux, would have pulled us out further than Obama's have, and perhaps before the rest of the world.
Unfortunately, I fear (because I'd prefer to believe the myth of the magical wisdom of the common voter) that that sort of decision is generally made based upon the mood of the electorate rather than reasoned analysis (such as that attempted with inconsistent results by all of us politics junkies, right left and squishy, on this board).
 
PPP performed their most recent RV (registered voter) polling finish in PA on Sunday night, and it came back Obama +8. The PPP ones of RVs always favor the incumbent, so I'd say it's closer to +3 or +4 for Obama in PA right now.

An interesting twist is that Real Clear demoted Michigan to a toss-up because the most recent RV polls there are Obama +5, which means it's more like Obama +1. Even if Michigan is close, I highly doubt Romney pulls the upset there.

Wisconsin still hasn't had a new polling sample in over a week. Same for OH and FL. Interesting that they aren't doing weekly ones now that the candidates are basically set.
 
Wisonsin won't touch the Presidential race until the governor thing is settled. Which is trending towards Walker. Last I saw it was 51-46 or something close to that.....
 
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