Coronavirus

OUBubba said:
I’ve been inattentive to this site since Thursday when I entered enemy territory to drink beer, play golf, eat steak, drink bourbon, see many douchey dudes, fight traffic, and watch Sooner Magic happen.
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Sooner magic in this case means playing a team that doesn't understand basic football fundamentals, mostly on defense. Thanks for turning the knife.
 
I said 40% based on your statement that more than 50% of people in the ICU were unvaccinated as an estimate.

I agree that the vaccine reduce chances of severe cases. That isn't the point.

As time goes on studies are showing the vaccine loses efficacy after 2-6 months. So the icu numbers are going to change in the next few months. Natural immunity is somewhere around 9-12 months.
 
Monahorns said:
I said 40% based on your statement that more than 50% of people in the ICU were unvaccinated as an estimate.

I agree that the vaccine reduce chances of severe cases. That isn't the point.
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95%+ are unvaccinated. It would have to be 40% to make a reasonable statement that the vaccines don’t work.
 
Monahorns said:
I said 40% based on your statement that more than 50% of people in the ICU were unvaccinated as an estimate.

I agree that the vaccine reduce chances of severe cases. That isn't the point.

As time goes on studies are showing the vaccine loses efficacy after 2-6 months. So the icu numbers are going to change in the next few months. Natural immunity is somewhere around 9-12 months.
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They grow less effective at stopping infection. They remain effective against hospitalization and death.
 
You didn't say 95% unvaccinated. You said more than 50%. Good job moving goal posts.

But that wasn't my original point anyway. Is the point of a vaccine historically, to reduce symptoms?
 
OUBubba said:
95%+ are unvaccinated. It would have to be 40% to make a reasonable statement that the vaccines don’t work.
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What does "work" mean? My original question which you never really answered, other than to say it makes severe cases less likely. I granted that point to you. But is that really the definition of a vaccine that "works"? What is the objective line in the sand?
 
Monahorns said:
I haven't read that anywhere.
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That’s playing out I’m front of us, correct? I b
Monahorns said:
You didn't say 95% unvaccinated. You said more than 50%. Good job moving goal posts.

But that wasn't my original point anyway. Is the point of a vaccine historically, to reduce symptoms?
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Dude. Here is what I’m saying. Vaccination rate in the region is (was) 50%. So, if the vaccine is not effective you would expect icu and hospitals to be filled with 50% of vaccinated people. I’m laying the bare minimum to show ineffectiveness. The number is 97%. That is a SIGNIFICANT difference before you consider that vaccinated patients skew older.
 
Monahorns said:
What does "work" mean? My original question which you never really answered, other than to say it makes severe cases less likely. I granted that point to you. But is that really the definition of a vaccine that "works"? What is the objective line in the sand?
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The objective is to stay out of the hospital and off the ventilator.
 
OUBubba said:
Dude. Here is what I’m saying. Vaccination rate in the region is (was) 50%. So, if the vaccine is not effective you would expect icu and hospitals to be filled with 50% of vaccinated people. I’m laying the bare minimum to show ineffectiveness. The number is 97%. That is a SIGNIFICANT difference before you consider that vaccinated patients skew older.
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I haven't argued against this really. I have used your statements as a basis for mine. I don't dispute them.

OUBubba said:
That’s playing out I’m front of us, correct? I b
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I have read about vaccines losing efficacy. No comment about allowing cases vs severe cases. Not sure you have a point there. If a vaccine is losing efficacy I would expect those 2 things to follow together.

OUBubba said:
The objective is to stay out of the hospital and off the ventilator.
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You keep answering questions I am not asking. Try to answer the question I asked. I never said vaccines don't prevent severe cases for some period of time. I agree with you. The data is clear.
 
Monahorns said:
I haven't argued against this really. I have used your statements as a basis for mine. I don't dispute them.



I have read about vaccines losing efficacy. No comment about allowing cases vs severe cases. Not sure you have a point there. If a vaccine is losing efficacy I would expect those 2 things to follow together.



You keep answering questions I am not asking. Try to answer the question I asked. I never said vaccines don't prevent severe cases for some period of time. I agree with you. The data is clear.
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The only question I gather from above is “what does ‘work’ mean”? I guess I would say if a hospital has a higher percentage of unvaccinated patients in the hospital than the vaccination rate in the relevant community would be a good measurement. Also, a positivity rate for the same populations. If vaccines work, it would impact those factors. And, I think it is clear that this is the case.
 
OUBubba said:
The only question I gather from above is “what does ‘work’ mean”? I guess I would say if a hospital has a higher percentage of unvaccinated patients in the hospital than the vaccination rate in the relevant community would be a good measurement. Also, a positivity rate for the same populations. If vaccines work, it would impact those factors. And, I think it is clear that this is the case.
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Okay. That is a new way to evaluate vaccines. In the past vaccination was evaluated by how it protected against case spread. These mRNAs don't do that but they do reduce case severity, at least for some period of time.

But then there is ADE and Marek's effect that could make things worse long term. That is why at this time I can't say the vaccines work. They have a positive effect for sure, but long term we have to wait and see.
 
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OUBubba said:
Cases don’t mean crap. Talk to me about hospitalization, icu stays, and deaths. That’s where the vaccine makes the difference.
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And yet...people like you insist that Texas is less than half vaccinated and still we see that 'rona patient count in Texas hospitals is down yet again. Just in the past week, it is almost a 20% reduction in patient count, going from 7,934 on October 4th to 6,462 yesterday. Harris County TSA is down to 1,417 with the sniffles and in a hospital bed, a number that has ALSO steadily been decreasing since August 26th, when it appears to have peaked at 3,500.

Available vent count is at 7,527 compared to 7,128 on July 28th. And, just for sh*ts and grins, let's look at ICU availability...oh, what do we see there? 600 beds for adults and 102 available for children.

We are seeing a seasonal illness that was sic'ed upon the world by China. Period. But just as with antibiotics have contributed to resistant bacteria, the use of boosters will create a resistant strain of the virus.
 
mb227 said:
And yet...people like you insist that Texas is less than half vaccinated and still we see that 'rona patient count in Texas hospitals is down yet again. Just in the past week, it is almost a 20% reduction in patient count, going from 7,934 on October 4th to 6,462 yesterday. Harris County TSA is down to 1,417 with the sniffles and in a hospital bed, a number that has ALSO steadily been decreasing since August 26th, when it appears to have peaked at 3,500.

Available vent count is at 7,527 compared to 7,128 on July 28th. And, just for sh*ts and grins, let's look at ICU availability...oh, what do we see there? 600 beds for adults and 102 available for children.

We are seeing a seasonal illness that was sic'ed upon the world by China. Period. But just as with antibiotics have contributed to resistant bacteria, the use of boosters will create a resistant strain of the virus.
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Well, yeah it's down. Delta has been burning itself out. That was expected and predicted months ago. I thought it was gonna fall off the cliff sooner and more dramatic.

This was a strain that started in India due to rampant lack of vaccinations. The issue is not something that's going to grow out of the vaccines. It will be the variants that come from areas that have limited access to vaccines.
 
Half vaccinated? Bull **** 73% of folks 12+ in age have at least one dose in Texas.
 
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OUBubba said:
This was a strain that started in India due to rampant lack of vaccinations. The issue is not something that's going to grow out of the vaccines. It will be the variants that come from areas that have limited access to vaccines.
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I don't think that is true. Areas that aren't vaccinated but have been broadly exposed will have herd immunity. Variants won't have chance to spread because they will be killed or they will mutate to strains that can survive without making the host sick. That is what viruses did before vaccines ever existed. The vaccine only deal with 1 protein on the virus so it will shift viral evolution a specific direction which could be benign or could be a catastrophe.
 
Good gawd...people still prattling on about 'cases' despite hospitalizations dwindling and the reality that so many tests were, in fact, false positives.
 
Let me explain this for the thick headed since we apparently have comprehension issues:

Covid hospitalization rates has surged in mainly rural areas for the following reasons:
1/ lower vaxx rate than more urbanized areas
2/ lower natural immunity than more urbanized areas
3/ lower nurse staffing than more urbanized areas

Note that only 1/3 of the above reasons is vaxx-related.
 
mchammer said:
Let me explain this for the thick headed since we apparently have comprehension issues:

Covid hospitalization rates has surged in mainly rural areas for the following reasons:
1/ lower vaxx rate than more urbanized areas
2/ lower natural immunity than more urbanized areas
3/ lower nurse staffing than more urbanized areas

Note that only 1/3 of the above reasons is vaxx-related.
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Note delta will fix the rural areas soon enough, either via natural immunity or spurring folks to vaccinate. This problem solves itself, which I claimed would happen about a month ago.
 
mchammer said:
Note delta will fix the rural areas soon enough, either via natural immunity or spurring folks to vaccinate. This problem solves itself, which I claimed would happen about a month ago.
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Well, go back through here and I claimed it two months ago. A NYT article indicated something similar so no one took notice.

I do agree with you that natural immunity and vaccines will help.
 
Well I claimed it 3 months ago. Which I didn’t but did read an article several months about the UK spike and decrease so everyone knew it was going to spike then slope downward.
 
humahuma said:
Well I claimed it 3 months ago. Which I didn’t but did read an article several months about the UK spike and decrease so everyone knew it was going to spike then slope downward.
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I will see your three months and raise you a week. :)

I linked a NYT story that Covid often just drops inexplicably. That’s all.
 
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