Coronavirus

IFR has way too big a range though. CFR is steady and gives an easier-to-understand version if trending is up/down/etc. Assuming the consumer knows/understands that CFR doesn't mean 4.9 percent of people who catch it actually die.

There are still people out there who believe that IFR is 80x less due to the first batches of flawed antibody tests. That would mean that literally half of the country has contracted Covid.
 
Just left a medical staff meeting at a large Level 1 trauma center in Georgia. Covid cases continue to rise, but are not a concern from a hospital resource perspective. They are not going to ICU any longer, rather isolation rooms primarily in a med/surg wing. Patients are doing well with Redemsivir and steroids. I have no direct knowledge of Texas hospitals, but my guess is they are fine as well.
 
San Antonio had 1263 new cases yesterday. We'd been averaging 500-600 a day.

Now Lefty Mayor demands businesses ask you questions about your health and take your temperature before admitting you! Seems like untrained people taking temperatures would be a real quick way to spread the infection to me.​
 
Guessing people who would not usually go to a doctor for these kinds of symptoms are now running out to get tested. How many are dying?

My cousin is a nurse in La. He told me yesterday he has Covid now for about a week. 51 like me. Mild symptoms and the loss of smell and taste. He surmises that the initial outbreak, no there way to put it really, wiped out the weakest people. Now, it seems to not be having the same effect on most people who are getting it.
 
Better to estimate?
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Yes Joe Fan, because in this case the estimate is more accurate, close to reality, than the CFR calculation. Even using it as a relative number doesn't help because testing policy, i.e. who gets tested, has changed significantly over time.
 
San Antonio had 1263 new cases yesterday. We'd been averaging 500-600 a day.

Now Lefty Mayor demands businesses ask you questions about your health and take your temperature before admitting you! Seems like untrained people taking temperatures would be a real quick way to spread the infection to me.
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Yes, but the new case numbers don't really tell you what they think do. The # of tests and who gets tested when keeps changing. The new cases raw numbers are at best confusing and in most cases deceptive.

Since June 10, the test policy has been more or less the same, but how each city or hospital has executed the plan probably didn't stabilize until the last week or so.

Numbers will probably go down over the next week or so just because elective surgeries have been canceled this week or delayed for several weeks to a month.

But that decrease still won't tell us anything about how many actual cases there are. It tells us even less about a comparison to actual cases in April-May when testing was way, way lower and who got tested was different.
 
Just left a medical staff meeting at a large Level 1 trauma center in Georgia. Covid cases continue to rise, but are not a concern from a hospital resource perspective. They are not going to ICU any longer, rather isolation rooms primarily in a med/surg wing. Patients are doing well with Redemsivir and steroids. I have no direct knowledge of Texas hospitals, but my guess is they are fine as well.
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The deaths even in the "hotspot" states like TX and GA continue to go down. That is partly because younger people make up more of the cases now. The other part is that a mutation was detected in COVID-19 several weeks ago that is believed to make it less serious/deadly. Viruses routinely mutate in this way in order to have better survival rates of their own. The less an infection affects the host the more viruses survive. Some even become beneficial over time. Not saying COVID-19 is beneficial.
 
Not being rude here but I laughed at this thinking the implication being they (the virus) could self determine efforts for survival.
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It is a strange thing. Of course viruses don't determine consciously their efforts of survival. But it does happen as I have heard multiple epidemiologists say it.
 
Believe me I understand the science, just thought the ‘implication’ of conscious effort was amusing. Didn’t mean to infer that’s what you or anyone thought.
 
chart updates

States reported 697 US coronavirus deaths. Which is the lowest Wednesday total since Mar 25 and down from last week's 721. The 7-day avg fell to 521
FWIW, in the US avg deaths from all causes are over 7,000 per day
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This one is thru July 1 -- the 7-day US avg shows case upturn beginning ~Jun 9.
The CDC says that the mean time from symptom onset to death is ~14 days.
So far, there has been no corresponding death curve inflection, despite the sharp increase in cases now over 3 weeks ago

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Again, I think surgical masks are causing more harm than good. My reasons are as follows:
1) They give the public a false sense of protection. The mask, even if worn properly, is not protecting you.
2) A large percentage of people do not wear them properly. They have their nose exposed and sometimes even their mouth exposed.
3) People are re-using surgical masks over and over. They are designed to be thrown away after each use.
4) There is a now a public problem with people throwing masks and gloves on the ground. Once worn, the surgical mask is contaminated. That contamination remains after use.
5) The masks generally leave open space so particles escape if you sneeze or cough. They are also not designed in a way to provide full protection.
6) I doubt the general public is washing their cloth masks after each use. If you believe they are, I have some property to sell you.

Politicians are making decisions that are politically expedient, but not effective.
 
Monahorns said:
It is a strange thing. Of course viruses don't determine consciously their efforts of survival. But it does happen as I have heard multiple epidemiologists say it.
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That syncs up with a podcast I listened to on the Spanish Flu. It was believed to be an outlier in this regard because it did so much of it's growth in the trenches of WW1 and only the sickest patients came off the line and spread that disease out to the world. So, the strongest part of the virus was the one spread throughout the world.
 
theiioftx said:
Again, I think surgical masks are causing more harm than good. My reasons are as follows:
1) They give the public a false sense of protection. The mask, even if worn properly, is not protecting you.
2) A large percentage of people do not wear them properly. They have their nose exposed and sometimes even their mouth exposed.
3) People are re-using surgical masks over and over. They are designed to be thrown away after each use.
4) There is a now a public problem with people throwing masks and gloves on the ground. Once worn, the surgical mask is contaminated. That contamination remains after use.
5) The masks generally leave open space so particles escape if you sneeze or cough. They are also not designed in a way to provide full protection.
6) I doubt the general public is washing their cloth masks after each use. If you believe they are, I have some property to sell you.

Politicians are making decisions that are politically expedient, but not effective.
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My understanding is that the major benefit of the masks are to keep you from spreading it unknowingly as far and wide as you otherwise would. It is not necessarily supposed to be keeping you from getting anything.
 
Oklahoma is growing like that and protesting was very limited. This is just the result of opening up, Memorial Day, protests, etc. and people not taking it seriously.
 
OUBubba said:
My understanding is that the major benefit of the masks are to keep you from spreading it unknowingly as far and wide as you otherwise would. It is not necessarily supposed to be keeping you from getting anything.
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It definitely does not protect you. If properly fitted, worn, cleaned and disposed of after each use, they MAY provide SOME protection for others around you. My point is none of that is done on a large scale. As such, they are causing more problems than they are helping to solve the pandemic. Think of giving everyone on a plane a parachute without any instructions.

Politicians saying "just wear masks" are perpetuating a problem. They would do much better to overemphasize washing hands and fully explaining how to wear masks. Additionally, focus resources on mass production of N-95's for now and the future pandemics that will inevitably hit.
 
OUBubba said:
Oklahoma is growing like that and protesting was very limited. This is just the result of opening up, Memorial Day, protests, etc. and people not taking it seriously.
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California particularly SF has not opened up much and cases are growing, likely due to protests.
 
I try to remain politically silent when hearing people openly state that the protests did not cause the staff, but I can't. I just laugh uncontrollably.
 
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