LongestHorn
2,500+ Posts
One third of worlds confirmed cases are in the US. And one in five Americans tested came back positive for COVID19.
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Wrong. As shown on the Worldometers.info link I posted just above, the confirmed + probable number for New York is 20,861 through yesterday. In prior days, around 75% of reported cases have been confirmed and 25% probable, so your 15,500 number sounds about right for confirmed cases.
Also, your use of "assumed" instead of the actual term -- "probable" -- reveals an obvious and unjustified bias. As I've posted previously, the probable cases are based on fairly specific CDC guidelines. I'm sure there will be isolated cases where they were fudged, but when someone dies with COVID-like symptoms and the death certificate lists COVID as the cause of death, I'm comfortable with the "probable" label even if no blood test was given.
'The Worldometer cite primarily reports figures by state. They did give some raw data broken down for NYC only, but those numbers were not used in the calculations of the 0.78% death rate. Check the math -- it is based entirely on state-wide data.
The ratio of actual cases to confirmed cases is driven largely by how much testing has been done. New York has done more testing than anywhere else in the world, so you would expect their ratio to be lower. That is borne out by the data released yesterday.
Will there be other places where the ratio is higher? Of course. But that would be in places that haven't done enough testing to catch as large a fraction of the overall cases as New York has.
That may prove to be true. But so far, no state has released data as thorough or reliable as what New York released yesterday. That's the best we have to go by at this time.
Rate may be lower when >50% infected because nursing home deaths have front-runned the pandemic. In other words, infection rate in nursing homes likely higher than general population
Yay?One third of worlds confirmed cases are in the US. And one in five Americans tested came back positive for COVID19.
I hope you are right, and tend to think you are. But not all viruses work that way.
One third of worlds confirmed cases are in the US. And one in five Americans tested came back positive for COVID19.
And this is a real concern. I was listening to Ben Shapiro (Yeah, I know you're not a fan, but I enjoy him.) while I was exercising last night. He cited to evidence suggesting that this virus mutates pretty fast. If that's the case, then neither herd immunity nor a vaccine are going to be a silver bullets that wipe the virus out. It'll be more like the flu. People will be able to to get a shot every year, but it'll only somewhat reduce the risk of getting the disease.
Harrison, 37, was an unusual choice, with no formal education in public health, management, or medicine and with only limited experience in the fields. In 2006, he joined HHS in a one-year stint as a “Confidential Assistant” to Azar, who was then deputy secretary. He also had posts working for Vice President Dick Cheney, the Department of Defense and a Washington public relations company.
Before joining the Trump Administration in January 2018, Harrison’s official HHS biography says, he “ran a small business in Texas.” The biography does not disclose the name or nature of that business, but his personal financial disclosure forms show that from 2012 until 2018 he ran a company called Dallas Labradoodles.
Special Report: Former Labradoodle breeder was tapped to lead U.S. pandemic task force
That is the scary thing about this, but for now I'm unwilling to trust anything from media or even doctors. All I keep seeing is speculation and propaganda.
Original report was wrong. Was actually inconclusive due to not having enough test subjects so maybe it will turn out to be at least somewhat effective.
(1) First and foremost, I would want to know how strong the evidence at trial was, and whether new evidence has surfaced since then. Maybe a defense was raised that would work under modern law, but didn't work back then. These types of considerations are often the basis for clemency.
(2) There is a big difference between some murders and others. For example, some people get convicted of murder for things that could arguably be classified as accidents, or recklessness. Other murders are committed in cold blood. The fact that two acts were given the "murder" label by a judge or jury does not make the two acts equivalent.
(3) In terms of mitigating circumstances, the sky is the limit. Was the defendant provoked? Did the defendant show immediate remorse and cooperate with the police? Was mental illness involved? These circumstances wouldn't justify letting the person off altogether, but could justify letting the person off after they've als.
Wrong. See how that works. I used the New York state website who is the original site reporting.
I'm not sure I understand what you are saying. These people were all convicted. The ones who were highlighted in the article have all served 20+ years, and are now being released. I'm not sure how that translates to "very few are going to spend much time in jail".In your world, I think very few are going to spend much time in jail. You take Blackstone's "better to let 10 guilty go free than convict 1 innocent" creed literally. I think these folks probably had a fair trial and were convicted by a jury of their peers. I think that letting 10 guilty go free will harm more innocents than the reverse.
And the Bill O citing, as I read I felt that was not all written by him then saw the name at bottom, Ken something. Was it an overall paraphrasing of a Bill O’Reilly column?
Yesterday Cuomo said that the NY CV19 death numbers were from hospital and nursing home cases and that at home deaths were excluded.I said “wrong” then backed it up with links to data. That’s how it works.
You said “wrong” then referred to data without linking to it. That’s not how it works. Unfortunately, I had time to find the source you referred to, and it confirms my statement, not yours.
The number you quoted is indeed from the NYS website. Here’s a link to it. I didn’t see anything there indicating whether that site includes probable cases, which is the point you cited it for.
It is true that NYC has reported probable cases (link), but those aren’t included in the NYS numbers. You can tell by looking at the county-by-county data within the NYS website. Add up the daily deaths in the five NYC counties (New York, Queens, Kings, Bronx, and Richmond) as reported on the NYS website, and it matches the “confirmed” numbers on the daily NYC press release.
On a broader note, I’ve been following the Worldometers.info website for about a week now. They report population data taken directly from official government websites. The provide links to the source data, as well as annotations explaining the limitations of the data — but with little to no editorialization. Mediabiasfaccheck.com rates them as neutral.