Chance of Football in 2020

[mb227]

Nebraska got a stiff rebuke from the B1G essentially saying they will no longer be in the conference if they play. Seems like Nebraska could be in the hunt for new digs...

 

[mchammer]

Yesterday Texas had almost 10,000 new cases (nationally spiked to over 54k cases), there has always been a Monday spike on the graph but this spike was particularly large and it is the sixth highest number of cases in Texas since this all began. That's before we reopen the schools and colleges and have people interacting in close quarters indoors on a much larger scale than is happening now.

I keep seeing coaches saying that it is safer for them to have the athletes in their programs and I absolutely think that is true but there is a difference between having them on campus and having them playing the games. What happens when they start going to class with 49,000 other students because they aren't in a bubble like the professionals will be, and then what happens when they travel en-masse to a road game and interact with hundreds of other players and coaches and officials during a game, all of whom have been interacting with people on their end. All assuming we don't have fans in the stands because don't get me started on 50,000 football fans interacting with each other and what that will do to spread this thing. However this plays out the concentric circles of exposure just get bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger.

I want this thing to go away, I want normal life back, but this just seems to me to be a recipe for making things so much worse. In the end I cannot escape the feeling that while I want to see college football, and I get that life has to go on, I just don't see how we possibly justify multiple super spreader events across a good bit of our country every single Saturday for the next several months when the infection rates are where they are at?

I don’t see what you see.

 

[mb227]

Yesterday Texas had almost 10,000 new cases (nationally spiked to over 54k cases), there has always been a Monday spike on the graph but this spike was particularly large and it is the sixth highest number of cases in Texas since this all began. That's before we reopen the schools and colleges and have people interacting in close quarters indoors on a much larger scale than is happening now.

yesterday was 8913 according to the DSHS website, which is the only one that matters. There have ALSO been multiple updates about Counties that revised their counts and that impact daily numbers. The third-party sites never like to mention that sort of information...

Meanwhile, we have had more than 358K recoveries out of the 500K positive tests. The number of recoveries continues to outpace fatalities. But that is to be expected with something that has roughly a 99.x% survival rate...

 

[mchammer]

Meanwhile check out AZ (our future):

 

[mchammer]

For long term inclusion into the B12 I don't want them either. But for this year only, I'm at the point of being OK to any school bold enough to want to play football.

What if B12 played BYU or NU as non-conference teams? In that way, they don’t compete for the conference title.

 

[RainH2burntO]

These "spikes" people keep referring to are merely results of increased testing in areas running a little behind others.
As many prudent, non mainstream medical professionals have pointed out, we have passed an inflection point and it is pretty much time to move forward (a much shorter and clearer path out of this than not)...with just a few caveats/precautions.

 

[SabreHorn]

What if B12 played BYU or NU as non-conference teams? In that way, they don’t compete for the conference title.

No, no, and hell no

Help those who are fiends. no cults, no foreighners. UTEP needs it

 

[stanhin]

Help those who are fiends

RETRO-FIEND: Photo

 

[FWHORN]

I don’t see what you see.

Do you see a spike up yesterday. Even the more conservative DSHS graph showed almost 9k cases while CDC graph had it closer to 10k. Everyone seems to be ignoring the law of large numbers when they talk about "its trending down" because we are still talking about a trend down from huge numbers just to really big numbers. And really big numbers are still bad.

 

[ViperHorn]

Fake - no aggy

 

[Horn6721]

Fox News just announced the Big12 WILL play football

 

[SabreHorn]

Nothing like playing OU THREE times in one season, none with the State Fair, although Chris is working on the atmosphere of meeting #1

 

[mb227]

Do you see a spike up yesterday. Even the more conservative DSHS graph showed almost 9k cases while CDC graph had it closer to 10k. Everyone seems to be ignoring the law of large numbers when they talk about "its trending down" because we are still talking about a trend down from huge numbers just to really big numbers. And really big numbers are still bad.

The makers of Kleenex have no objection to lots of people with the sniffles. Makers of various NSAID products are also not unhappy. They ALSO know that this is essentially an extra flu season.

 

[mb227]

Do you see a spike up yesterday. Even the more conservative DSHS graph showed almost 9k cases while CDC graph had it closer to 10k. Everyone seems to be ignoring the law of large numbers when they talk about "its trending down" because we are still talking about a trend down from huge numbers just to really big numbers. And really big numbers are still bad.

Did you read the note from DSHS yesterday? It would seem not...

"Texas is reporting 8,913 new confirmed cases for August 11. The overall statewide total was updated to include 890 cases reported by the Corpus Christi-Nueces County Public Health District stemming from a laboratory reporting backlog."

In other words, roughly 10% of yesterday's total was not NEW positive tests in the sense that people think of daily counts.

 

[mchammer]

This article doesn’t mention role of cross-immunity either.

Population immunity is slowing down the pandemic in parts of the US

 

[FWHORN]

In February in Italy they held a soccer game that 40k fans attended and they can now track literally hundreds of deaths to that one event, maybe not all being the people who went, but the people who went got it and infected others. And that was when Italy had less cases per day than Texas is having now. So what happens when we put 50,000 fans in the stadiums and have a full contact sport like football happen across 50-60 stadiums a week every week throughout this fall. Your telling me we wont have multiple super spreader events.

I guess at the end the only real question left is, how many deaths will we be able to track from deciding holding college football was more important than preventing the further spread of this disease. How many deaths will we count and what number is an ok number. I will be ecstatic if three months from now I am completely wrong and I will eat the biggest plate of crow with great delight, but the risk/reward of me being wrong versus the play the game crowd being wrong is way out of whack. I honestly don't get the insanity of this conversation.

 

[Run Pincher]

In February in Italy they held a soccer game that 40k fans attended and they can now track literally hundreds of deaths to that one event, maybe not all the people who went, but the people who went got it and infected others. And that was when Italy had less cases per day than Texas is having now. So what happens when we put 50,000 fans in the stadiums and have a full contact sport like football happen across 50-60 stadiums a week every week throughout this fall. Your telling me we wont have multiple super spreader events. What color is the sky in your world.

I guess at the end the only real question left is, how many deaths will we be able to track from deciding holding college football was more important than preventing the further spread of this disease. How many deaths will we count and what number is an ok number. I honestly don't get the insanity of this conversation.

Worth it if your last memory before death is watching the great Texas Longhorns play!!

 

[horninchicago]

Why does anyone care about supposed spikes in cases when there is overwhelming evidence that the counting of cases is fraudulent, and the cases that are real are mostly asymptomatic? For Gawd's sake, none of this ******** happened under Obozo.

 

[mchammer]

In February in Italy they held a soccer game that 40k fans attended and they can now track literally hundreds of deaths to that one event, maybe not all being the people who went, but the people who went got it and infected others. And that was when Italy had less cases per day than Texas is having now. So what happens when we put 50,000 fans in the stadiums and have a full contact sport like football happen across 50-60 stadiums a week every week throughout this fall. Your telling me we wont have multiple super spreader events.

I guess at the end the only real question left is, how many deaths will we be able to track from deciding holding college football was more important than preventing the further spread of this disease. How many deaths will we count and what number is an ok number. I will be ecstatic if three months from now I am completely wrong and I will eat the biggest plate of crow with great delight, but the risk/reward of me being wrong versus the play the game crowd being wrong is way of whack. I honestly don't get the insanity of this conversation.

I don’t see how attending games with social distancing is worse than opening schools in mid-Sept. Also, those Italians do a lot of hugging and kissing. Not really comparable.

 

[RainH2burntO]

In February in Italy they held a soccer game that 40k fans attended and they can now track literally hundreds of deaths to that one event, maybe not all being the people who went, but the people who went got it and infected others. And that was when Italy had less cases per day than Texas is having now. So what happens when we put 50,000 fans in the stadiums and have a full contact sport like football happen across 50-60 stadiums a week every week throughout this fall. Your telling me we wont have multiple super spreader events.

I guess at the end the only real question left is, how many deaths will we be able to track from deciding holding college football was more important than preventing the further spread of this disease. How many deaths will we count and what number is an ok number. I will be ecstatic if three months from now I am completely wrong and I will eat the biggest plate of crow with great delight, but the risk/reward of me being wrong versus the play the game crowd being wrong is way of whack. I honestly don't get the insanity of this conversation.

FW...If those of us to whom you are speaking truly believed this pandemic to be as lethal and frightening as you seem to, or if this were really just about football, then I suppose the conversation would seem insane.
We do not and it is not...and it is not.
There are those who believe this pandemic is the most terrifying and intimidating thing on earth right now and there are those who don't....and we will never agree nor should we judge, ridicule or demean one another over this difference (I'm not saying you are doing that).
I think you are greatly and mistakenly discounting what many have said from the beginning...This virus always was, is and will make it's way through the population one way or another. And, the data just doess not suggest a lethal rate so far above other similar viruses to warrant the kind of hysteria and actions our country has endured. This is not just about football.
(You do realize the already low rate of mortality (especially when factoring existing conditions, improper treatment, or false reporting is factored in) is brought even lower by the fact that the % is being based on those #s tested and doesn't account for the millions and millions who have it or have had it but are never tested right?)
One more thing....No one is forcing anyone to go around exposing themselves if they are worried about this. Stay home, wear two masks, social distance, whatever (Personally I think it is an unworthy waste of time energy and worry to go to those lengths)....But some would like to get on with life...whether that includes football or not.
Most of us already wore out an entire football thread hashing through all this...really no need to do it again.

 

[FWHORN]

Just to be completely clear, I really want the play the games crowd to be right and me to be wrong.

Its just the consequence of me being wrong is no college football for a year, the consequence of the other side being wrong, well that gets back to my how many deaths is ok question doesn't it.

 

[horninchicago]

Just to be completely clear, I really want the play the games crowd to be right and me to be wrong.

Its just the consequence of me being wrong is no college football for a year, the consequence of the other side being wrong, well that gets back to my how many deaths is ok question doesn't it.

How many deaths was okay for H1N1 or any other virus that didn't cause this hysteria in the history of the planet? Okay, maybe not that long but you get it.

 

[LonghornCatholic]

So is OU game still at Cotton Bowl?

 

[SabreHorn]

Yes, with some pleasant surprises.

 

[Vol Horn 4 Life]

In reply to this:

Just to be completely clear, I really want the play the games crowd to be right and me to be wrong.

Its just the consequence of me being wrong is no college football for a year, the consequence of the other side being wrong, well that gets back to my how many deaths is ok question doesn't it.

This.

This virus always was, is and will make it's way through the population one way or another. And, the data just doess not suggest a lethal rate so far above other similar viruses to warrant the kind of hysteria and actions our country has endured.

As a virus goes, it will spread and there will be many more like this one in the future just has has happened in the past. It's way over-hyped and people will die just like with past viruses and just like future viruses. It sucks...for real...but we can't just put the world on hold forever in absolute fear that someone might die, because some will. Some will call my view heartless, but I call it reality because people die every day of lots of things out of their control. It's no life at all if we have to live in a bubble of fear every day.

 

[RainH2burntO]

Just to be completely clear, I really want the play the games crowd to be right and me to be wrong.

Its just the consequence of me being wrong is no college football for a year, the consequence of the other side being wrong, well that gets back to my how many deaths is ok question doesn't it.

You seem like a reasonable dude, FW. We just see this differently. But you are all right w me.

 

[RainH2burntO]

In reply to this:




This.



As a virus goes, it will spread and there will be many more like this one in the future just has has happened in the past. It's way over-hyped and people will die just like with past viruses and just like future viruses. It sucks...for real...but we can't just put the world on hold forever in absolute fear that someone might die, because some will. Some will call my view heartless, but I call it reality because people die every day of lots of things out of their control. It's no life at all if we have to live in a bubble of fear every day.

And we have a certain group of people who think man can control everything and create utopia if others would just get out of their way....lol.

 

[SteveInAustin]

How many deaths was okay for H1N1 or any other virus that didn't cause this hysteria in the history of the planet? Okay, maybe not that long but you get it.

During the the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died in the United States from the flu. Covid-19, by comparison, has resulted in 337,062 hospitalizations (fewer than the flu) and and 165,328 deaths in the United States. Covid-19 is comparable to a bad recent flu season. It has killed about 2.5 times as many as the flu does in a year. It mainly kills those over 80, and those over 60 with some other serious condition - just like the a normal flu does.

Covid-19 is not even comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic where 50 million people died worldwide, with a much smaller world population. The world population in 1918 was 1.8 billion, resulting in a death rate of 2.7% of the world's population.

By contrast, COVID-19 has killed 744,733 people worldwide out of a total of 7.8 billion people in the world in 2020, resulting in a death rate of 0.01% of the world's population. There are many other things that kill more way more than 700K people worldwide every year. For example, heart disease kills 17.9 million people worldwide every year.

We don't shut everything down, or stop playing football games, for the flu, nor should we. We should all take precautions, but not stop playing football games, or living our lives.

 

[horninchicago]

During the the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died in the United States from the flu. Covid-19, by comparison, has resulted in 337,062 hospitalizations (fewer than the flu) and and 165,328 deaths in the United States. Covid-19 is comparable to a bad recent flu season. It has killed about 2.5 times as many as the flu does in a year. It mainly kills those over 80, and those over 60 with some other serious condition - just like the a normal flu does.

Covid-19 is not even comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic where 50 million people died worldwide, with a much smaller world population. The world population in 1918 was 1.8 billion, resulting in a death rate of 2.7% of the world's population.

By contrast, COVID-19 has killed 744,733 people worldwide out of a total of 7.8 billion people in the world in 2020, resulting in a death rate of 0.01% of the world's population. There are many other things that kill more way more than 700K people worldwide every year. For example, heart disease kills 17.9 million people worldwide every year.

We don't shut everything down, or stop playing football games, for the flu, nor should we. We should all take precautions, but not stop playing football games, or living our lives.

Ha, I wasn't really looking for the stats, but thanks, and I agree.

 

[RainH2burntO]

During the the 2018-2019 flu season, 647,000 people were hospitalized and 61,200 died in the United States from the flu. Covid-19, by comparison, has resulted in 337,062 hospitalizations (fewer than the flu) and and 165,328 deaths in the United States. Covid-19 is comparable to a bad recent flu season. It has killed about 2.5 times as many as the flu does in a year. It mainly kills those over 80, and those over 60 with some other serious condition - just like the a normal flu does.

Covid-19 is not even comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic where 50 million people died worldwide, with a much smaller world population. The world population in 1918 was 1.8 billion, resulting in a death rate of 2.7% of the world's population.

By contrast, COVID-19 has killed 744,733 people worldwide out of a total of 7.8 billion people in the world in 2020, resulting in a death rate of 0.01% of the world's population. There are many other things that kill more way more than 700K people worldwide every year. For example, heart disease kills 17.9 million people worldwide every year.

We don't shut everything down, or stop playing football games, for the flu, nor should we. We should all take precautions, but not stop playing football games, or living our lives.

Welcome to the party, Steve.
When you right....you right...and you right, sir.
And again those stats don't even account for the many untested, asymptomatics (impossible to accurately count)and inflation due to error, intentional misappropriation, or shenanigans...or the mortality rate would be even lower.
More importantly....We cant hide from this...It is going through one way or the other...unless someone really wants to go hide themselves from civilization indefinitely.