2024 GOP Primary

[mchammer]

Best I can tell Kamala is 50-50 with Trump right now under the best media exposure possible. In short, 50% chance she still loses. Unless Kamala has another gear (which she doesn’t - she actually only drives in reverse to continue the metaphor), no way she wins.

LOL - this comes out as I wrote the above:

 

[Garmel]

Quit falling for it, guys.

 

[Monahorns]

Quit falling for it, guys.

Garmel. They are all following in William Buckley's footsteps. JD Vance and Trump are a chance to change direction, even if very imperfectly.

 

[mchammer]

 

[lkainer]

Sounds like someone who might have tried an assassination.

 

[mchammer]

Harris +1 in WI. This is likely the best she will do. If she drops 2 points between now and Election Day, she loses.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Sounds like someone who might have tried an assassination.

He's just talking ****. They'll grandstand, but they won't do anything meaningful.

 

[mchammer]

For what it is worth:

 

[mchammer]

CNBC has Trump +2. Looks like Harris has peaked.

 

[HornHuskerDad]

Looks like Harris has peaked.

And she should lose more support when she debates - once she goes off script in response to DJT, voters will see her word salad.

 

[mchammer]

Another poll has Trump +2 in GA. Harris has peaked?

 

[mchammer]

Once Harris starts to slip in the polls, I am predicting you will see a dearth in polling results in order to keep the charade going. Then a week before the election you might see some extremely biased polls showing the race is close.

 

[mchammer]

 

[Horn6721]

Did Trump confuse Willie Brown with Jerry Brown??

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

Somebody is red-pilling Rasmussen

 

[mchammer]

Somebody is red-pilling Rasmussen

He has been redpilled for a long time.

 

[mchammer]

PA: Trafalgar has Trump +2, NYT has Harris +4. I go with Trafalgar. In any shape, any loss of votes from Harris from this point is a guaranteed loss. Trump only needs to win GA and PA is reach 270 EV.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Looks like NYT is skewed 4 point at least. If so, Trump is ahead in every battleground state. LULZ.

 

[mchammer]

I will say Harris apparently achieved a +3-4 pt bump over prior polling. Can she keep it? Don’t make me laugh.

 

[Garmel]

NYT/Sienna is known to be highly accurate.

However, would these pollsters be willing to lie to keep Trump out?

Damn well they would.

 

[mchammer]

Not shown above but Trafalgar has Trump +4 in NC.

 

[mchammer]

NYT/Sienna is known to be highly accurate.

However, would these pollsters be willing to lie to keep Trump out?

Damn well they would.

They only have to be accurate (within MOE) in their last poll. Until then, it will be biased towards Harris.

 

[Garmel]

So much for my accurate statement. They were close to 9 points off on some polls.

 

[mchammer]

So much for my accurate statement. They were close to 9 points off on some polls.

I was being generous when I said the NYT was biased +4 to Harris. It’s likely +6.

 

[mchammer]

Here’s the deal. Harris is still losing despite massive push by the media. With the Olympics over tomorrow and a week before the DNC begins, you will see more questions about Harris (no press conferences) and Walz (creepy dude). I suspect it will be push and take between now and the debate. Who are they fooling? Is this just a ploy to get cat ladies to the polls to protect dem congressmen? So when Harris bombs the debate, are the cat ladies going to be conditioned to blame mean ol men and get further agitated? Harris is going to lose to Trump, but Dems need angry cat ladies to avoid a blowout in congress.

 

[Garmel]

I was being generous when I said the NYT was biased +4 to Harris. It’s likely +6.

Yep. As we've said before this is her high point. She's in serious trouble.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Trump back on twitter.

 

[mchammer]