2024 GOP Primary

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Marist is showing Harris up by 2 in PA and they were one of the more accurate pollsters in 2020. The reason this is so important is because as I've said before, the winner of PA will be the winner. Yes, Trump can still win with MI and WI, but he won't win those if he doesn't win PA.

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The Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) is a survey research center. MIPO is home to the Marist Poll and conducts polls on politics, the economy, sports, technology and more at the local, state, and national level.

maristpoll.marist.edu

 

[mchammer]

 

[Run Pincher]

Huh? Marist was off >4% pts in 2020.

I saw 2% and Newsmax was talking about them being accurate and Newsmax is about as far right as a network gets.

 

[Horn6721]

So Nev will elect a dem Senator but vote for Trump as POTUS?

 

[mchammer]

I saw 2% and Newsmax was talking about them being accurate and Newsmax is about as far right as a network gets.

We’ll find out on Tuesday. By the way, on the RCP website, 11 of the last 12 polls show Trump ahead or tied in PA. Did Newsmax tell you that?

 

[mchammer]

So Nev will elect a dem Senator but vote for Trump as POTUS?

There could be many states like that: MI, WI, OH, PA, etc. Don’t forget the power of incumbency.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

So Nev will elect a dem Senator but vote for Trump as POTUS?

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Trump is focused on GA, NC, PA to win. Today is MI and WI. MI and WI come into play if Trump wins NC, GA, and AZ (likely a done deal).

 

[mchammer]

 

[horninchicago]

The race was wrapped 4 years ago when most people went to sleep. I will wait to see what happens.

 

[mchammer]

I saw 2% and Newsmax was talking about them being accurate and Newsmax is about as far right as a network gets.

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

Looks like 51-47 race in VA:

 

[mchammer]

Everyone panic!

 

[mchammer]

You guys know I hate rent seekers, race hustlers, and grifters in general. Most are on the left but the right has a grifter problem as well. The tweet below provides an example:

 

[mchammer]

Panic!

 

[mchammer]

So predictable:

 

[mchammer]

 

[mchammer]

So predictable:

 

[Horn6721]

So RCP in the Senate thread has the Nevada Dem Senator up by 4.2% and the final poll here has the Republican up by 1
Do people get paid to guess?

 

[Run Pincher]

We’ll find out on Tuesday. By the way, on the RCP website, 11 of the last 12 polls show Trump ahead or tied in PA. Did Newsmax tell you that?

No, they showed a chart with Trump leading all swing states but MI and WI. The Marist data was separate. If they're right then all is fine and I can sleep peacefully, but I won't until it's official.

 

[mchammer]

So RCP in the Senate thread has the Nevada Dem Senator up by 4.2% and the final poll here has the Republican up by 1
Do people get paid to guess?

Yes people are paid to generate a number they like. That’s why voter registration, voter enthusiasm, etc are more important indicators in addition to polling. It’s also why polling of non-battleground states that aren’t as influenced politically are important too. For example, if Trump is doing much better in NJ or NY or VA vs 2020, why wouldn’t he do better in PA?

 

[Horn6721]

At least bookies have a stake in their game . Betting they can get money from both sides
I understand how the pollsters arrive at their predictions
Glad it is almost over

 

[mchammer]

No, they showed a chart with Trump leading all swing states but MI and WI. The Marist data was separate. If they're right then all is fine and I can sleep peacefully, but I won't until it's official.

 

[HornHuskerDad]

I understand how the pollsters arrive at their predictions

As Yogi Berra once said, "Prediction can be very difficult, especially when it involves the future."