2024 GOP Primary

Apparently Michigan will have IPEV for the first time this year. Otherwise, mail-in ballots are about on par with 2020:

 
Dems are hoping for some life out of their voters this weekend and next week to close the gaps in NV, AZ, NC, and GA. Need to wait till midweek to see what portends. Meanwhile MI and WI has started early voting.
 
Harris had a very bad week this past week. Trump now leads in the RCP polling average. The betting markets have Trump over 60%. EV vote in many states is bleeding red.

So the stage is set for the last full calendar week of campaigning. I wonder if there will be some early vote enthusiasm for Harris or does it continue trending down for her? And, if it continues to go sideways, do Dems/media still keep up the illusion that Harris has a chance? If you look a blue twitter, those delusional morons still expect Harris to win. In short, does reality set in next week or does it wait till ED? Anyone like to comment?
 
mchammer said:
So the stage is set for the last full calendar week of campaigning. I wonder if there will be some early vote enthusiasm for Harris or does it continue trending down for her? And, if it continues to go sideways, do Dems/media still keep up the illusion that Harris has a chance? If you look a blue twitter, those delusional morons still expect Harris to win. In short, does reality set in next week or does it wait till ED? Anyone like to comment?
Click to expand...
Good question, mchammer. IMO, voters are beginning to question Kamala's ability to do the job as POTUS - and they're really concerned that she hasn't stated her positions on the big issues. The only thing she has pounded away at is the abortion issue, and that seems to take a back seat to the economy and immigration. And many (most?) voters blame the current administration for the runaway inflation and the mass of illegal immigrants.
I'm sensing an increasing shift toward Trump. The big question - will Trump have long coattails to help downballot GOP candidates? I think the GOP will take control of the Senate, but I'm concerned about the House (due to the gerrymandering in favor of the Dems in CA and NY).
 
HornHuskerDad said:
Good question, mchammer. IMO, voters are beginning to question Kamala's ability to do the job as POTUS - and they're really concerned that she hasn't stated her positions on the big issues. The only thing she has pounded away at is the abortion issue, and that seems to take a back seat to the economy and immigration. And many (most?) voters blame the current administration for the runaway inflation and the mass of illegal immigrants.
I'm sensing an increasing shift toward Trump. The big question - will Trump have long coattails to help downballot GOP candidates? I think the GOP will take control of the Senate, but I'm concerned about the House (due to the gerrymandering in favor of the Dems in CA and NY).
Click to expand...
Seems to me Dems/media will go all out to keep up the illusion to protect down ballot races. But can they do it if the bottom keeps falling out of Harris campaign?
 
mchammer said:
Seems to me Dems/media will go all out to keep up the illusion to protect down ballot races. But can they do it if the bottom keeps falling out of Harris campaign?
Click to expand...
We'll probably get a better feel for that mid-week. If the trend continues swinging toward DJT, that may mean longer coattails. Sure hope so - it's critical that the GOP takes the Senate and expands control of the House.
 
I may be offending Muslims, but tribal societies know how to pick winners for survival of their tribe:

 
SlothHorn said:
Stupid ? The AZ numbers. Does that mean Dem turnout this far is +1, but REPs lead due to independents?
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+1 turnout advantage for Dems means Dems are going to the polls at a slightly higher percentage than GOP. However, since there are more registered GOP than Dems overall, GOP still leads in terms of ballots. Independents have nothing to do with it.
 
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