2020 Senate & House

Joe Fan said:
Rs have flipped 14 House seats so far this year, with over 1/4 coming from a single state: California (ca-21, ca-25, ca-39, ca-48)
I believe there are still 5 House races outstanding, with Rs winning all 5
If that holds, I think it would be 222-213, which would mean just 5 Dem defections would flip it. Many of the "Blue Dogs" have already lost, but i think there are 5 or more still left
However it does end up, it will be a far cry from some of the predictions in here. One poster said Rs were gong to lose another 30 seats in 2020. Lordy
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I believe Dems' House majority will be smallest since 1875
A micro-majority
 
theiioftx said:
Another reason I don’t believe the POTUS vote was correct.
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I fail to see how the flipped House seats correlate to Trump state wins in any of those locales. Even if it was a matter of thousands of votes, House seat elections just don't show statewide waves towards one Presidential candidate one way or another.

Biden will win CA by like 5MM votes, so it doesn't matter if the GOP flipped 4 or more seats there. Especially if the margins were razor-thin. Same goes for whatever they end up flipping in NY... Dems will win the Pres vote by over 1MM there.

Dems flipped seats in NC and still lost the state.

The only place where a flipped House seat might have mattered towards the Presidential EVs in a state Biden won would be Michigan, and it's a 50/50 seat most of the time anyhow. This whole "I trust the down ballot to tell me who won the EVs" just doesn't make sense in this year or any other.
 
Horns11 said:
This is not true on an easily-verified level. Parties have gained seats in the House and still lost the Presidency.
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It's the exception, but it's not particularly rare. It happened in 2000, 1992, 1988, and 1960. I think it's also worth noting that the GOP didn't flip a bunch of seats in the states that are being fought over (PA, AZ, NV, GA, and MI). They got one in Michigan and lost one in Georgia. That's it. The real gains mostly happened in blue states that are still blue but not quite as blue as they were in 2018.
 
This is House swing map for just 2018 thru 2020
GA sort of stands out
Can enlarge by clicking once

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These are R gains in state legis -- 137 state house gains and 11 state senate gains with a few still to be decided

Arkansas (+3)
California (+1)
Florida (+5)
Idaho (+2)
Illinois (+1)
Indiana (+4)
Iowa (+6)
Kansas (+3)
Kentucky (+14)
Maine (+7)
Minnesota (+5)
Montana (+9)
Nevada (+3)
New Hampshire (+46)
New Mexico (+1)
North Carolina (+4)
North Dakota (+1)
Ohio (+3)
Oklahoma (+5)
Oregon (+2)
Rhode Island (+1)
South Carolina (+3)
South Dakota (+3)
Vermont (+3)
West Virginia (+18)
Wyoming (+2)​

Republicans have veto proof majorities in:
Alabama
Arkansas
Idaho
Indiana
Kentucky
Missouri
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Tennessee
Utah
West Virginia
Wyoming​

Democrats lost veto proof majorities in
Vermont
Nevada​
 
nashhorn said:
What’s up with Tex panhandle?
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My guess is that Dems in the panhandle came out in droves to vote in 2020 instead of 2018. Wouldn’t surprise me that they just got the news that Trump was president in 2020 and wasn’t aware of this fact in 2018. Probably takes 2 years for news to travel to the panhandle.
 
You had me thinking that David Eller was a Mark White Democrat when he was appointed Chairman of BOR at aTm. David's company owned that huge feedlot up around Amarillo. Thought maybe the boys up there registered a few hundred thousand cows to vote.
 
Husker
It is clear You have never started a business, worried about making payroll and felt the reponsibility of signing the FRONT of checks for your employees with families then you likely can't understand she did not start out worth a billion.
Amusing that you think all rich people have always been rich. Think people like Gates etc started out super rich? I am sure they sweated out making payroll many times.

I am sure you are a good little employee who never had to worry if your check would clear
 

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Horn6721 said:
Husker
It is clear You have never started a business, worried about making payroll and felt the reponsibility of signing the FRONT of checks for your employees with families then you likely can't understand she did not start out worth a billion.
Amusing that you think all rich people have always been rich. Think people like Gates etc started out super rich? I am sure they sweated out making payroll many times.

I am sure you are a good little employee who never had to worry if your check would clear
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While you want to talk about me I'd kindly ask you to please point out what in Kelly Loeffler's bio that shows she ever had to worry about her next paycheck? While she worked in Investor Relations she married money when she married the CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, a company she worked at. She literally worked for big companies all the way until she married wealth. Now she flies around on private planes.
 
nashhorn said:
Kamala II?
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Yep, it's hard to rip Kamala and give her a pass. She did marry her boss, so she did make an "honest man" out of him. Of course, nobody could make Willie Brown honest. But overall, they are similar. Specifically, the most consequential move they made was having sex with very powerful men to whom they were not married at the relevant time. Both are pretty unimpressive and unremarkable beyond that - just mediocre women of mediocre accomplishment. The only big difference is that the media pretends that Kamala is impressive because they like her politics. If she was a Republican, they'd view her no better than they view Loeffler.
 
Ill state politics -- Looks like Michael Madigan is finally out as speaker of the Illinois House. He is basically the poster boy for Democratic Party politics. Even with many of his buddies under indictment, he was running again as speaker.

This guy the longest-serving leader of any state or federal body in the history of the US (from 1983 to now). He is Chicago - can you imagine the decades of corruption? They called him "the Velvet Hammer" and "Real Governor of Illinois."

Quote --
"the pile of political corpses outside Madigan's Statehouse door of those who tried to beat him one way or another is a mile high and a mile wide."​
 
Joe Fan said:
Ill state politics -- Looks like Michael Madigan is finally out as speaker of the Illinois House. He is basically the poster boy for Democratic Party politics. Even with many of his buddies under indictment, he was running again as speaker.

This guy the longest-serving leader of any state or federal body in the history of the US (from 1983 to now). He is Chicago - can you imagine the decades of corruption? They called him "the Velvet Hammer" and "Real Governor of Illinois."

Quote --
"the pile of political corpses outside Madigan's Statehouse door of those who tried to beat him one way or another is a mile high and a mile wide."​
Click to expand...
Yep, Feds finally came down on him.
 
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