2020 Senate & House

Monahorns said:
Deez, I think you are correct about Iowa and other bread basket states.

But would you think that eliminating subsidies might actually help the farms? Maybe not. But I was thinking maybe the subsidies and regulations force them to grow a certain type of crop. Maybe with out the government influence they would find new crops that are higher value to grow or be able to more quickly improve yields.

Maybe not, but I am wondering if this issue isn't more complicated than it seems.
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Long term I think they'd be better off without subsidies and regulations. However, people who are getting free money rarely want to give that up. For example, if we got rid of the federal student loan program (which we treat as free money even though it's not), there's no question that it would ultimately benefit students, because their tuition would fall dramatically. But how many students would actually support doing that? Damn near none.
 
Duck Dodgers said:
AZ should be a win, I just can't get over how bad a candidate McSally is. I don't follow AZ politics enough to know why, but she must just be terrible. AZ may have two leftist Senators thanks to her.
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McSally has an awkward feel. She isn't especially well-spoken and kinda looks uncomfortable. She also got kicked around in an ugly primary battle with a couple of crackpots (Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio).

Kyrsten Sinema ran a strong campaign in a strong Democratic year. Yes, she had a nutty past, but she had largely disavowed that and had become a true moderate (much moreso than Mark Kelly). She said she'd basically emulate Joe Manchin, which made her far more palatable in a state like AZ.

And to her credit, she has pretty much kept her word. She actually votes with Trump quite a bit for a Democrat. In fact, if the party keeps moving too far into crazyville, I could see her as a potential party switcher in the coming years. By 2024 (when she'll be up for reelection), I'm not sure she'll be able to win a primary again.
 
Heritage doesn't think Sinema votes with Trump/ conservatives/ GOP.
They give her a 0 rating.
What Trump legislation did she vote for?
 
I looked over her actual record. I will give her credit for supporting giving assistance during the pandemic the new trade agreement with Mexico and voting for the budget as well as the occasional Trump nominee and some no brainers
But on other ssues like requiring care for a baby born alive or withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and Syria, to vote against?
And especially voting to convict Trump is not what I would characterize as voting with Trump
 
In case you live in FL-24 (Miami/Dade County)

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I'm not even considering withholding when I think of pre-payment (though that is an excellent observation). I'm thinking of all the people and businesses who file quarterly.
 
Horn6721 said:
I looked over her actual record. I will give her credit for supporting giving assistance during the pandemic the new trade agreement with Mexico and voting for the budget as well as the occasional Trump nominee and some no brainers
But on other ssues like requiring care for a baby born alive or withdrawing troops from Afghanistan and Syria, to vote against?
And especially voting to convict Trump is not what I would characterize as voting with Trump
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She votes in the affirmative on majority of Trumps court appointees (Barrett is the exception)
And voting 51.5% (For Trump) for a Democrat is impressive. She is the highest rated Democrat to vote with Trump.

Tracking Congress In The Age Of Trump



just piggybacking off of MrDeez
 
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We might be getting an unexpected treat in the Minnestota senate race. Tina Smith, the democrat incumbent, has only a +1 lead in one of the latest polls.
 
She’s as boring as they come, so yes if Trump wins Minn, good chance for a change of Senators here.

I’m no expert on Minn but from what I’ve read, the Minneapolis area is heavy D, as with all big cites, smaller and rural areas are R. Traditionally the Iron Range as it’s called, the nose or hook of the state, has been D from the labor tie in. Now that those workers realize the Democrat party has no use for them, it’s trending heavily Republican.

Will need a heavy turnout there to overcome the suburb harpie vote.
 
Do Rs have any shot at House?

"Representative Peter DeFazio is part of an exclusive club of senior House Democrats facing a surprisingly close re-election contest in 2020 for a congressional seat he’s held for a generation.
* * *

Cook still rates the race as lean Democratic, while nine other Democratic seats are rated as toss-ups. Most of those, however, are held by Democrats who were first elected in 2018 in GOP-leaning Districts. Two other senior House Democrats -- Ron Kind of Wisconsin and Collin Peterson of Minnesota -- are also facing unusually tough races. Like DeFazio, Cook rates Kind’s race as lean Democratic, but Peterson’s race is a tossup...."​

A Few Long-Serving House Democrats Face Surprise Election Fights
 
Joe Fan said:
Do Rs have any shot at House?

"Representative Peter DeFazio is part of an exclusive club of senior House Democrats facing a surprisingly close re-election contest in 2020 for a congressional seat he’s held for a generation.
* * *

Cook still rates the race as lean Democratic, while nine other Democratic seats are rated as toss-ups. Most of those, however, are held by Democrats who were first elected in 2018 in GOP-leaning Districts. Two other senior House Democrats -- Ron Kind of Wisconsin and Collin Peterson of Minnesota -- are also facing unusually tough races. Like DeFazio, Cook rates Kind’s race as lean Democratic, but Peterson’s race is a tossup...."​

A Few Long-Serving House Democrats Face Surprise Election Fights
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These guys aren't the same. Petersen is basically a Joe Manchin. He could probably switch parties and win. Lots of people in his district will vote for him and for Trump. Ron Kind is more liberal but not a kook - your typical union-friendly Democrat from the Midwest. Probably quite a few Trump voters will vote for him.

Peter DeFazio is a full-blown wingnut. I always assumed he was from Portland, because usually only hard left communities elect guys like that. He'd be pretty hard left even for Austin. If his district is actually a swing district with a lot of rural areas, I can't believe they haven't knocked him off once in the last 34 years.
 
^Great news if Joni holds on to her Senate seat for the GOP. It is absolutely critical for the GOP to retain control of the Senate.
 
In Oregon, the R who might beat Peter DeFazio is Alek Skarlatos (who was one of the Americans who thwarted a terrorist attack on a train in France)
RCP lists it a a toss up
 
HornHuskerDad said:
^Great news if Joni holds on to her Senate seat for the GOP. It is absolutely critical for the GOP to retain control of the Senate.
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Looks like Trump will drag McSally over the line in AZ, same in NC with Tillis
Not sure about Gardener, Daines or Collins, but Ala will add an R seat
 
Gadrener is probably gone, but he fought the good fight to the end, with is support of Barrett. Solid man, give him a good job in Trump's second term.

Tills I think is safe - he's boring but he's won the state before. Plus the other dude was porking a soldier's wife - should be whipped with a tow cable from an M88 Recovery Vehicle. Even the crooked NC media is withdrawing their support. Clown.

Hard to say about McSally. Terrible politician - the R version of Kamra Sultra Harris. Great on paper, horrible in real life. Could go either way, as could Collins. If there's a strong R turnout in the upstate district for Trump, those votes might carry her over the finish line.

Tuberville is a sure bet - I wonder how much money was offered to former Auburn players to try to get them to lie and say he'd called them the 4th most common word in any rap song?

Would like to see James win in MI - one as he's a good candidate and would have a great future in the party, and secondly a win by him means a win by Trump, and the gnashing of leftist teeth until 2025 at least.

I'll say CO and AL cancel each other out, one loss one win from AZ and Maine ticket splitters (guess - Collins with the win - go with the better politician), then a win by James. No net change in the Senate. 53 votes to keep powering the change of the judiciary.
 
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