2020 Senate & House
- Thread starter Joe Fan
- Start date
Yep. There is a significant possibility of Trump losing Michigan but James defeating Peters. He's an exceptional candidate. He didn't beat Stabenow, because it was a Democratic year and because she's also a strong candidate, but this is his shot. However, even if he loses narrowly, he should keep running.
^This would be a nice W for the GOP if Ernst can hold on to her Senate seat.
Yet it appears tied for president. Can someone say BS on the president polls?
17 seats to switch leadership. Someone predicted 10 GOP pickups and 7 toss ups.
With Ernst and Collins likely winning and Cunningham losing in N.C., one seat loss at most for GOP. AZ senate is the key race now.
According to Trafalgar John James will win Michigan's senate seat. We could end up with no losses. Are you sure about Collins? I haven't seen a poll showing her ahead.
Yes I forgot about James. I was wondering who would offset CO senate loss. Collins will likely win. No reason to trust the polls. They are meaningless (MOE is 10% in likelihood).
Horn2RunAgain
2,500+ Posts
Really hoping to see MN go red, but I'm telling ya the DFL there will do anything to hold it blue. Put nothing passed them. Since midway thru the GWB years they've knuckled down
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
My guess:
R losses:
Maine and CO. Colorado is turning increasingly leftist, and with the fraud by mail aspect, hard to win. Maine has only kept electing Collins since they're used to voting for her, I think too many Harpies are shrieking for her to keep that seat.
Probably AZ as well. McSally on paper is a great candidate - woman, veteran, AF pilot, but in practice, she's terrible. Lost a race last time to a ding bat leftist with a history of trashing the state. Had to run twice to win her House seat. Just not a good politician. It happens. Problem is that the AZ GOP seems to love her no matter how many times she loses. Will probably nominate her again in 2022 to lose again.
Wins in Alabama - I guess the Dems couldn't find any former player to lie and say that Tubberville called them the 4th most popular word in a rap song. So he'll win.
James too. I think Trump wins MI, and from 2016, he actually ran a bit behind the Senators from WI and PA that year. So if Trump wins there, James will too.
Net -1, 52-48.
R losses:
Maine and CO. Colorado is turning increasingly leftist, and with the fraud by mail aspect, hard to win. Maine has only kept electing Collins since they're used to voting for her, I think too many Harpies are shrieking for her to keep that seat.
Probably AZ as well. McSally on paper is a great candidate - woman, veteran, AF pilot, but in practice, she's terrible. Lost a race last time to a ding bat leftist with a history of trashing the state. Had to run twice to win her House seat. Just not a good politician. It happens. Problem is that the AZ GOP seems to love her no matter how many times she loses. Will probably nominate her again in 2022 to lose again.
Wins in Alabama - I guess the Dems couldn't find any former player to lie and say that Tubberville called them the 4th most popular word in a rap song. So he'll win.
James too. I think Trump wins MI, and from 2016, he actually ran a bit behind the Senators from WI and PA that year. So if Trump wins there, James will too.
Net -1, 52-48.
NC? I think GOP wins 2 of ME, AZ, NC
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
NC was a question, but I think Trump wins there, and the Dems fooling around with multiple women, including the wife of an enlisted man (dude should be publicly whipped with a tow rope from an M88 for that), plus hiding out, as bad of a candidate as Tillis is, I think he wins.
Wild card would be if the law enforcement arm of the Democrat party, also called the FBI, charges him with some insider trading issue for his supposedly selling out of the market in January. Hopefully the fool sold and stayed out, so is poorer now than if he'd done nothing.
Wild card would be if the law enforcement arm of the Democrat party, also called the FBI, charges him with some insider trading issue for his supposedly selling out of the market in January. Hopefully the fool sold and stayed out, so is poorer now than if he'd done nothing.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
AZ should be a win, I just can't get over how bad a candidate McSally is. I don't follow AZ politics enough to know why, but she must just be terrible. AZ may have two leftist Senators thanks to her.
It's also possible that Ernst has more crossover appeal than Trump.
I think the opposite. She’s been criticized in past for NOT having much appeal.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
I have little knowledge of IA politics, but from 1000 miles away I never understood the idea of her being in trouble, besides media hype about it and fixed polls.
I don't recall her being in any scandals or issues. She's an incumbent, in a state trending more and more Republican (Iowa used to be pretty left wing, sort of a southern Minnesota), that elected a R governor in 18, and that Trump carried without much effort in 2016. Hard to see her losing.
I don't recall her being in any scandals or issues. She's an incumbent, in a state trending more and more Republican (Iowa used to be pretty left wing, sort of a southern Minnesota), that elected a R governor in 18, and that Trump carried without much effort in 2016. Hard to see her losing.
Good points. I will be checking the states that have concomitant senate and presidential races. Should be interesting
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Trump did run a few points behind Johnson in WI and Toomy (?) in PA in 2016, as he's more of a meanie, but the only case from 2016 I can remember where there was a divergence in winning between Trump and a Senator or Gov was in NC, when the sitting R was defeated by a small margin, while Trump won that state.
I have some Iowans in the family. They are politically weird, and I can see that in the state's politics. Iowa might be trending Republican nationally, but they'll elect liberal Democrats pretty readily. Three out of their four members of Congress are Democrats, and they aren't conservative Democrats. For decades, they very comfortably elected very liberal Tom Harkin (D) and very conservative Charles Grassley (R) to the Senate. That's like voting for Ted Cruz one day and Ted Kennedy the next day.
I think their politics come from the agriculture background. My guess is that they're a generally conservative-leaning state but will back a liberal if he's a very strong advocate for agriculture (subsidies, favorable regulatory environment, etc.) and pro-labor. Harkin fit that mold.
And there is a logic to it. If your big issue is something that isn't particularly partisan (like agriculture), it makes some sense, because Iowa always had a powerful senator to fight for agriculture. If Democrats ran the Senate, Harkin was powerful. If Republicans ran the Senate, Grassley was powerful.
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Monahorns
10,000+ Posts
Deez, I think you are correct about Iowa and other bread basket states.
But would you think that eliminating subsidies might actually help the farms? Maybe not. But I was thinking maybe the subsidies and regulations force them to grow a certain type of crop. Maybe with out the government influence they would find new crops that are higher value to grow or be able to more quickly improve yields.
Maybe not, but I am wondering if this issue isn't more complicated than it seems.
But would you think that eliminating subsidies might actually help the farms? Maybe not. But I was thinking maybe the subsidies and regulations force them to grow a certain type of crop. Maybe with out the government influence they would find new crops that are higher value to grow or be able to more quickly improve yields.
Maybe not, but I am wondering if this issue isn't more complicated than it seems.
It’s what Dems try to do to GOP to dissuade GOP voters. Funny it’s on them this time.
Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Looks like him. He must think he’s running for governor of VA.
Plus both him and das Stinker are / were big fans of gun confiscation. Not sure about Kelly’s camp plan, but probably similar.
Plus both him and das Stinker are / were big fans of gun confiscation. Not sure about Kelly’s camp plan, but probably similar.
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Duck Dodgers
1,000+ Posts
Mark Kelly has more the fat Himmler look going on. You can almost smell the chicken crap from here.
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