Gee I thought Bill Clinton would have done it for you.
2020 Presidential Election: let the jockeying commence
- Thread starter ProdigalHorn
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Gee I thought Bill Clinton would have done it for you.
Yep. He's trying to unify the Party as his top priority. That tells me that he thinks he has moderates in the suburbs locked up.
Biden is losing the battleground states by 7 points.
From a latest poll of 15 states or so, not individually.From RCP.
Poll finds Trump ahead of Biden in 15 battleground states
I think state-by-state polls are more authoritative, because electoral votes are cast state-by-state.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
Some quotes from Trump from yesterday about his opponent --
“If you asked him who he named, he wouldn’t even know it. Joe has absolutely no idea what’s happening. AOC is a disaster. She wants all fossil fuel out. She wants everything out. She wants wind, which is expensive — kills all the birds. You know, I’m also an environmentalist. But wind is a disaster.”
By allying with Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders on energy policy, Trump said, Biden “lost Texas. He lost Pennsylvania. He lost North Dakota. He lost Oklahoma. And he lost every other state where fuel is important — like about most of them.”
Asked about the possibility that Democrats will not hold an in-person convention, Trump said, “I think that’s a good move when you have Biden as your candidate.”
Trump also said he looked forward to debating Biden in the fall, suggesting, “I know they want to try and get out of the debate by saying they won’t be able to debate because of COVID-19.”
By allying with Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders on energy policy, Trump said, Biden “lost Texas. He lost Pennsylvania. He lost North Dakota. He lost Oklahoma. And he lost every other state where fuel is important — like about most of them.”
Asked about the possibility that Democrats will not hold an in-person convention, Trump said, “I think that’s a good move when you have Biden as your candidate.”
Trump also said he looked forward to debating Biden in the fall, suggesting, “I know they want to try and get out of the debate by saying they won’t be able to debate because of COVID-19.”
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
In 2013, Joe Biden and Hunter Biden flew aboard Air Force Two to China.
Ten days later, Hunter Biden's firm inked a $1,500,000,000 with a subsidiary of the Communist Chinese government's Bank of China.
And then Joe Biden stopped US Navy patrols from challenging China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea
Ten days later, Hunter Biden's firm inked a $1,500,000,000 with a subsidiary of the Communist Chinese government's Bank of China.
And then Joe Biden stopped US Navy patrols from challenging China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea
Nate Silver disagrees with you. There is very little difference in voter from PA to WI, for example.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
The timing is highly suspect too
I got that from Michael Pillsbury who said it in a livestream event
He said Obama actually wanted to have Navy patrols in the South China Sea but it was Biden who was adamant not to do it
Of course, Nate Silver was among the ones who claimed Shillary was going to steam-roll Trump in 2016. We all know how THAT worked out for all concerned...
Biden will build the beautiful wall that Mexico has obstinately refused to build over the last few years after we were promised they would. I hate the Mexicans for their perfidious lying to us. About the beautiful wall they would build.
If you can't trust the Mexicans, who can you trust?
If you can't trust the Mexicans, who can you trust?
Correct, but I did learn one thing from him - many polls are auto-correlated. What Silver did say, is that if the polls are off in OH or IA, they are going to be off in MI and WI too. That is why when OH and MI came in stronger than expected for Trump on election night, Silver knew early that Biden was toast in PA and WI. He also knew that only a few points difference in the national polls completely flipped the Midwest states to Trump. So, yes Hillary to win but it was a very precarious position depending on the accuracy of the polls. Silver said that before the election. His problem is that he trusted the polls (polls were being used to discourage Trump voters). Only the final polls showed Trump within 2% points nationally. If Silver knew that all along, he would have placed the chances at 50:50 or even higher for Trump.
And on the auto-correlation point is where @Mr. Deez is wrong.
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Yes, but there's even less difference between a voter in PA and another voter in PA. I do concur with Garmel that none of the polls are very relevant now.
Most likely not, but I've never seen a time when the economy received less political emphasis. And I'm not just talking about the current Coronavirus drama. I could see social and cultural issues used to keep moderates and educated voters in the Biden camp while deemphasizing economic and fiscal matters that would ordinarily turn them off.
Joe Fan
10,000+ Posts
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