2018 Senate (& House)

[Mr. Deez]

I don't think GOP is throwing away the suburbs (at least I hope not) I think this has been "the 2 years of the pissed off women with education", starting with the marches, the pink hats, metoo, and Kavanaugh, and of course absolute loathing of Trump.

They aren't throwing the suburbs away on purpose. They're making their brand toxic to them by acting like goofballs (or attaching themselves to a goofball) instead of serious adults. No, that shouldn't matter, but for enough people it does. Many of these House districts went solidly for the last non-goofball Republican presidential nominee.

These women have been chomping at the bit to unleash their mighty anger toward Trump, and white men, and Republicans for a long time. Payback for Hillary.

I'm sure there's plenty of this, but guys like Pete Sessions in Dallas and John Culberson in Houston didn't lose because the bra-burning, pink-hat-wearing man-haters suddenly decided to ditch them. What sank them is that significant numbers of educated voters decided to vote with the man-haters rather than with the GOP like that those folks used to. We need to figure out how to recapture that demographic. Remember, these aren't swing districts. Many of these are districts that were solidly Republican just a term or two ago. Will some of these flip back in 2020? Some probably will, but the fact that these are even close is worrisome.

On the other hand, as current college aged kids grow up, and teach their kids their "values" I foresee a very different political landscape in a couple of generations.

It's well on its way now. Massive numbers of children have had checked out parents while they sat through 12 years of socialist propaganda in school plus whatever nonsense they heard in college. We didn't have to let that happen. We chose to with inaction and passivity. While the Right was caught up in tax cuts and making money, the Left was taking over college campuses, school boards, and media outlets. Let that happen for 40 years, and it's going to have a major cultural and political impact.

 

[Mr. Deez]

By the way, Florida just got harder to win. Link.

 

[Sangre Naranjada]

What sank them is that significant numbers of educated voters decided to vote with the man-haters rather than with the GOP like that those folks used to.

Are you sure of that? I think it is just as likely that the Frito Bandito had coattails that extended into those districts, in that his campaign got a shitload of first time, young, brainless voters to go in and vote straight D tickets. That won't happen next time around.

 

[Horn6721]

It is all about revenge for the Dems. So far all they have said is Kavanaugh impeachment Russia collusion Trump investigation Trump tax returns and Auntie Maxine vowing to do to them what they did to her.
Nothing about improving things in America.
They really are full of hate.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Are you sure of that? I think it is just as likely that the Frito Bandito had coattails that extended into those districts, in that his campaign got a shitload of first time, young, brainless voters to go in and vote straight D tickets. That won't happen next time around.

I'm sure that happened to an extent, but something much bigger than Beta is happening in these areas. Keep in mind that Hillary carried Culberson's and Sessions' districts. A transformation is taking place in these areas, which used to be very strong Republican strongholds.

Here's an illustration. Consider what happened in Collin County. As you can see, Ted Cruz defeated Beta, though not decisively. Keep in mind that Collin County still has some rural areas in the North. To see the real worry, scroll down to Texas House races in District 66 and 67. Those are in places like Plano, south Frisco, and Allen, which are dominated by wealthy suburban families. It's not a bunch of young dorks who just got out of college and still don't know their *** from their elbow and therefore likely to fall for Beta's nonsense. Well, the Republican incumbents in those districts barely held on, and the Democrat did better in the wealthier and whiter of the two.

Williamson County was worse. Again, this is a Republican stronghold like Collin County - heavily populated suburbs in the South with rural areas in the North. In fact, it's probably more rural than Collin is. Beta carried the county, and two of their three house seats (those in the suburbs) flipped from R to D.

We can't afford to lose the suburbs. We can't really afford to even have to compete very much in the suburbs. We're supposed to win the suburbs decisively enough that even "Beta-mania" isn't enough to unseat entrenched congressman and flip state house districts. It should mean 55-45 wins rather than 65-35 wins. It's not supposed to mean defeat or holding on by the skin of our teeth. We're getting schlonged in the cities. (Beta took 66 percent in Dallas County and 57.8 percent in Harris.) We can win with those numbers, but we need to blowout in the burbs.

 

[ShAArk92]

I haven't back tracked this lengthy thread from 2017. I'm disappointed, but not surprised.

People are so easily swayed by marketing it's pathetic ... and I've been bit, too.

Trump had nothing in his 2016 past which suggested he'd actually govern as a conservative. He's a master marketeer.

The democrats have nothing in their 30 year history to show they'll attempt to push this country farther/faster from our Founding. They are a bunch of hypsters and marketeers.

Combine the marketing with the human condition; selfish and lazy ...

and, L/Gs ... we get Nancy "gotta vote for it to see what's in it" Pelosi ... part deux.

I think the only way the purse strings in the House are now controlled with any responsibility is going to be from spite. I don't care how it happens, just that it happens ...

But I'm not holding my breath on this either. The Dems have never seen a spending program they didn't like ... even defense spending, because they can barter that for more social engineering and growing big Fed everywhere else.

Now we're gonna see how much of a statesman Trump can be ... ditto McConnell.

The GOP had the hat trick and they were less than impressive. The only "good" about this is Trump will likely have another SCOTUS appointment before he's done.

We really have some deaf folks casting ballots in this country.

 

[Clean]

By the way, Florida just got harder to win.

Hard to believe there are 1.2 million convicted felons in Florida. In 2017, Florida's population was estimated to be 21 million. Over 5.7% of population is a convicted felon! No wonder so much crazy stuff happens there.

 

[Mr. Deez]

It is all about revenge for the Dems. So far all they have said is Kavanaugh impeachment Russia collusion Trump investigation Trump tax returns and Auntie Maxine vowing to do to them what they did to her.
Nothing about improving things in America.
They really are full of hate.

They are full of hate, but we're not putting out a very convincing alternative. We have one, but we're not leading with it.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Hard to believe there are 1.2 million convicted felons in Florida. In 2017, Florida's population was estimated to be 21 million. Over 5.7% of population is a convicted felon! No wonder so much crazy stuff happens there.

And Crooked Andrew Gillum (who fell victim to the Bradley Effect) should be one of them. lol

 

[Mr. Deez]

we get Nancy "gotta vote for it to see what's in it" Pelosi ... part deux.

Probably, but this isn't a foregone conclusion. Link.

 

[Joe Fan]

Do we think that Taylor Swift woke up today and congratulated Marsha Blackburn on shattering the "glass ceiling" to become the first female Senator from Tennessee?

If she does, I bet Blackburn will thank her back for the help

 

[Hollandtx]

Well, all my uber liberal facebook friends are calling what happened last night a "Pink Wave", and consoling each other by saying it's even better than a blue wave.
So, maybe Senator-elect Blackburn did get a call from Taylor.
Friends are also happy for Muslim and LGTBQ winners.
le sigh

 

[Mr. Deez]

Friends are also happy for Muslim and LGTBQ winners.

Isn't it a great time to be an American when we're starting to care less about superficial things like one's character or positions on issues and more about important things like a person's race, religion, what gender he, she, or ze is (or think they might be on any given day), and who he, she, or ze likes to have sex with? You gotta love progress. I really feel like I live in an enlightened era.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Do we think that Taylor Swift woke up today and congratulated Marsha Blackburn on shattering the "glass ceiling" to become the first female Senator from Tennessee?

Actually, she might. I don't buy Swift's liberalism. I think it's entirely market-driven. If it wasn't, she would most likely have come out much earlier.

 

[mchammer]

Got up at about 7:30 my time and checked the returns. Looks like the House is gone. Looks like Cruz is going to hold on against Beta, albeit closely. Several other races in Texas don't look so good. Culberson and Sessions are gone. Will Hurd might be gone too, though that one is extremely close. Two Dallas-area state senators flipped to the Democrats. Significant losses in the Texas House. Austin, Houston, and Dallas Courts of Appeals all had big losses for the GOP.

Bottom line is that the GOP is throwing away the suburbs. Not good.

Hurd squeaked by with a win.

 

[Mr. Deez]

Hurd squeaked by with a win.

Good. We need guys like him.

 

[mchammer]

I don't think GOP is throwing away the suburbs (at least I hope not) I think this has been "the 2 years of the pissed off women with education", starting with the marches, the pink hats, metoo, and Kavanaugh, and of course absolute loathing of Trump.
These women have been chomping at the bit to unleash their mighty anger toward Trump, and white men, and Republicans for a long time. Payback for Hillary.
I may be wrong, but I think this election was a perfect gathering of that force, and a force we probably won't see again. Maybe Skateboard losing will take some wind out of their sails.
I know I had real friends, and Facebook friends, canvassing, texting, and registering voters for the first time since I have known them, and doing so for a solid 1-2 months at least. Also, from states all around the country.
I don't see that kind of enthusiasm coming together again all at once.

On the other hand, as current college aged kids grow up, and teach their kids their "values" I foresee a very different political landscape in a couple of generations.
It astonishes me that we could vote for a guy like Skateboard, who is a downright socialist, and squeak out a win. I am attributing that to the overwhelming amount of money, free press, athlete/Hollywood support, and general dislike of Cruz for that this one time. (and the angry women of Texas) But, sadly, I believe it won't be long before the America where I grew up is gone.

Also, if anyone thinks this election was a repudiation of Trump, all they need to do is check the states where he campaigned. Like him or not, his stamina and appeal to his base is remarkable.

I get the women anger with Trump, by why vote for beta or that Sinema chick from AZ who would hurt the economy via taxes and regulation and whatever socialist edicts they impose. 8 years of that under Obama is why blue collar white males broke for Trump.

On the state level where rural could offset suburban women, Trump cleaned up. He would have won again if his name was on the ballot.

 

[Clean]

And Crooked Andrew Gillum (who fell victim to the Bradley Effect) should be one of them. lol

For every 1.2 million convicted felons in Fla., there's probably 2 or 3 more people , like Gillum, who should be convicted felons.

 

[mchammer]

Are you sure of that? I think it is just as likely that the Frito Bandito had coattails that extended into those districts, in that his campaign got a shitload of first time, young, brainless voters to go in and vote straight D tickets. That won't happen next time around.

Yep. Ed Emmet lost his seat (county commissioner I believe) in Harris county because of the beta wave. Could happen again I suppose but likely not.

 

[horninchicago]

I get the women anger with Trump, by why vote for beta or that Sinema chick from AZ who would hurt the economy via taxes and regulation and whatever socialist edicts they impose. 8 years of that under Obama is why blue collar white males broke for Trump.

On the state level where rural could offset suburban women, Trump cleaned up. He would have won again if his name was on the ballot.

I don't get the women anger with Trump. Why should women be angry with Trump? My wife isn't angry with Trump and doesn't understand women being angry toward him.

 

[Mr. Deez]

I get the women anger with Trump, by why vote for beta or that Sinema chick from AZ who would hurt the economy via taxes and regulation and whatever socialist edicts they impose.

Because voting for them sticks it to Trump. They don't know that it hurts them. These aren't very deep people.

On the state level where rural could offset suburban women, Trump cleaned up.

But as Democrats learned in '16, you need a broad coalition. Dominating in a few areas isn't enough. If Trump was on the ballot, he would have lost, because he wouldn't have carried Iowa, Pennsylvania, or Michigan.

 

[mchammer]

I'm sure that happened to an extent, but something much bigger than Beta is happening in these areas. Keep in mind that Hillary carried Culberson's and Sessions' districts. A transformation is taking place in these areas, which used to be very strong Republican strongholds.

Here's an illustration. Consider what happened in Collin County. As you can see, Ted Cruz defeated Beta, though not decisively. Keep in mind that Collin County still has some rural areas in the North. To see the real worry, scroll down to Texas House races in District 66 and 67. Those are in places like Plano, south Frisco, and Allen, which are dominated by wealthy suburban families. It's not a bunch of young dorks who just got out of college and still don't know their *** from their elbow and therefore likely to fall for Beta's nonsense. Well, the Republican incumbents in those districts barely held on, and the Democrat did better in the wealthier and whiter of the two.

Williamson County was worse. Again, this is a Republican stronghold like Collin County - heavily populated suburbs in the South with rural areas in the North. In fact, it's probably more rural than Collin is. Beta carried the county, and two of their three house seats (those in the suburbs) flipped from R to D.

We can't afford to lose the suburbs. We can't really afford to even have to compete very much in the suburbs. We're supposed to win the suburbs decisively enough that even "Beta-mania" isn't enough to unseat entrenched congressman and flip state house districts. It should mean 55-45 wins rather than 65-35 wins. It's not supposed to mean defeat or holding on by the skin of our teeth. We're getting schlonged in the cities. (Beta took 66 percent in Dallas County and 57.8 percent in Harris.) We can win with those numbers, but we need to blowout in the burbs.

Go to CNN election results page that have all the district results on a color coded map. There are at least 20 House races that were within 1-3 pts leaning Dem as of now. If 11 of those races went GOP, the house would not have flipped. So, not as bad as the headlines say. However, I agree to your broader point about the suburban districts being too narrow.

Edit: prior to editing I confused voting margin with number of seats. Now corrected.

 

[Horn6721]

poor beeto
Ooh, SALT in the wound! Thread breaks down money WASTED per Beto O'Rourke vote and the Left FLIPS OUT

 

[Joe Fan]

Actually, she might. I don't buy Swift's liberalism. I think it's entirely market-driven. If it wasn't, she would most likely have come out much earlier.

Maybe, in reality, Taylor had nothing to do with it? Maybe it was all her management team. We see this happen with pro athletes all the time.

 

[mchammer]

Well, all my uber liberal facebook friends are calling what happened last night a "Pink Wave", and consoling each other by saying it's even better than a blue wave.
So, maybe Senator-elect Blackburn did get a call from Taylor.
Friends are also happy for Muslim and LGTBQ winners.
le sigh

Virtual signaling over jobs, defense, immigration, etc. (soft issues vs hard issues).

 

[Horn6721]

Someone suggested Beto change his name to Nacho



as in nacho Senator.

 

[mchammer]

Because voting for them sticks it to Trump. They don't know that it hurts them. These aren't very deep people.



But as Democrats learned in '16, you need a broad coalition. Dominating in a few areas isn't enough. If Trump was on the ballot, he would have lost, because he wouldn't have carried Iowa, Pennsylvania, or Michigan.

GOP won gov seat in Iowa and OH. Trump would have won FL and NC. As such just needed one of MI, WI, MN, or PA.

 

[Mr. Deez]

As such just needed one of MI, WI, MN, or PA.

He would have lost all three and might have lost Arizona. And with 1.2 million felons now eligible voters, Florida is about to get tougher.

 

[Joe Fan]

It is all about revenge for the Dems. So far all they have said is Kavanaugh impeachment Russia collusion Trump investigation Trump tax returns and Auntie Maxine vowing to do to them what they did to her. Nothing about improving things in America. They really are full of hate.

But they will be getting something important coming back at them too. The Senate will be able to streamline approval of Trump judges even better -- no more buying off of people like Murkowski and Collins -- those 2 just lost some clout all around.

The federal judiciary was the single biggest issue facing the USA going into the 2016 general election, by my take at least. And we look to be in good shape on that front as of this day, and probably for the next 6 years. This is going to have a huge effect on the daily lives of all Americans. It does not matter that the realization of this situation is not immediate for the great bulk of voters. Nor does it matter that, by the time they do realize it, so much time may have passed that most wont remember how it happened. The only thing that really matters is that it did happen.

It may also mean we get to someday soon say hello to Justice Amy Coney Barrett

 

[Joe Fan]

A wee bit o' history for some perspective --
The historic average of the first midterm election pickup by the opposition party is ~37

In recent times --
Obama lost 63 House seats in his first midterm (2010)
Bill Clinton lost 53 in his (1994)
Trump lost 26

When combined with the pickups in the Senate, Trump had an above-average first midterm