2018 Senate (& House)

11?
You mean if I had actually read your link I would have gotten my answer?:smile1:
Is there a chart that shows value? As in living in Texas versus NY or Calif?
 
The last column is as close as you'll get to that answer. It looks like they only used the median household income to calculate cost of living in each state, but it wouldn't be close for TX and NY anyhow. NY was already ranked #48 (fourth most effective tax rate behind IL, CT, and NE), and we all know that it's more expensive to live in NY than TX, punching NY down to #50 out of 51 (including DC) based on CoL.

I think something like the 13 "worst" tax rate states all voted Democrat in the last election.
 
I am favorable towards a state income tax (with the amendment baring property taxes for ever and ever amen) as it floats with LIQUID assets and allows the elderly to be rewarded with a paid-off home.
 
bystander said:
I am favorable towards a state income tax (with the amendment baring property taxes for ever and ever amen) as it floats with LIQUID assets and allows the elderly to be rewarded with a paid-off home.
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My problem with state income tax is that it becomes too easy for state politicians to follow Washington's lead and carve out so many classes of income, exceptions, deductions, etc that only a portion of people actually end up paying the tax at all.

With property tax the single largest issue is the notion that you never truly own your property even after it has been paid off, so instead of freezing tax rates for homesteads of senior citizens (as is done now), how about cutting the rate in half for seniors who own their property free and clear.
 
Seattle Husker said:
The benefits of property tax is that nearly all the money goes to your local government, unlike the lionshare of sales tax, gas tax, etc.
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It depends on where you are. Texas has an extensive recapture system that takes a big chunk of wealthier districts' property tax revenue and send it to poorer districts. It's big money - 35 - 50 percent of the money.
 
Tennessee property taxes are much lower than Texas. The sales tax is about 1% higher. Tennessee runs a surplus each year and has money in the bank.

I would rather increase sales taxes and have everyone pay versus artificially increasing property values to drive more government revenue.
 
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Gallup Polling vs. Rasmussen Polling

Gallup has Trump at 40% approval
They show 92% chance Rs lose one seat net in Senate
They run multiple scenarios and show a 47% chance overall that the Ds take the Senate

Rasmussen has Trump at 50% approval
They show 89% chance the Rs take 5 seats net in Senate
In their multiple scenarios, they show zero chance Dems take control of the Senate
 
Mr. Deez said:
It depends on where you are. Texas has an extensive recapture system that takes a big chunk of wealthier districts' property tax revenue and send it to poorer districts. It's big money - 35 - 50 percent of the money.
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aka The Robin Hood Plan. Westlake and the other rich school districts send MILLIONS AND MILLIONS to the state. They are always looking for funding to offset this from donations and other clever means.
 
I'd be ok with an income tax if and only if:

1. All property taxes are prohibited.
2. The income tax has no deductions or exemptions and doesn't care how you make your money. If you earn $1 or $1B dollars, you owe taxes. Everybody has skin in the game, and nobody gets a pass.
3. The tax rate is flat. You can't raise taxes on one without raising taxes on all.
4. All these requirements must be part of a constitutional amendment, not a statute that can be undone by a subsequent legislature.
 
I would like some predictions, based on polls, and mostly gut feelings/vibes/dreams/magic 8 balls!
Will the Republicans surprise the Dems again?
Will the Blue wave happen, or will it be a Blue mini-wave?
I know early voting has been massive. In Texas alone first time voters are up +400%. The question is...are the all young Dems driving this, or, Repubs who are secretly voting for Cruz and the rest of the Republicans.

I have a feeling we may not have decisive victories in a couple of states tonight.
I just want it to be over at this point.
Somebody take a swing at this.
 
It's possible I just threw my vote away, but I have to admit that it felt really good voting against scumbag Bob Menendez. We'll see if it works out - Hugin seems like he's gotten a lot of traction, and is positioning himself as a moderate/centrist pro-choice guy. In a world where political campaigns can openly say that "the right to choose," "fighting against gun lobbies," and "LGBTQ equality" and expect to be generally popular, it may be a lot to ask for an actual conservative to win here.
 
Are we going to start the prediction thread yet? I'm so bad at it so I'll go:

Senate: Dems lose the MO seat but steal the NV/AZ ones. I bet the FL, NJ, and MT elections are closer than the polling data right now, but it'll still be 51-49 GOP by January 3.

House: It's more of a question of how many gains do the Dems get. I've seen everything from "only" +20 gains, keeping the GOP in charge of the House, all the way to +45 gains for the blue side. It'll probably be in the middle of those. I'm going to say it'll end up 228-207, Dem, for a +33 swing.

Governorships: Although the GOP will keep control of the greatest number of states (probably 26-28 of them), the populations of states controlled by newly-elected Democrat governors will vastly outnumber the total number of people governed by Republicans.

Ballot measures:
Anti-gerrymandering measures seem to be gaining traction in a couple of states. If they pass, it will set the stage for other measures in 2020, right when the census is going to happen.

FL is going to narrowly pass an amendment to allow nonmurdering, nonraping felons to vote. It's going to add about 250K people back into the voting pool.

MI and ND will become the latest to allow recreational marijuana.
 
Mr. Deez said:
I'd be ok with an income tax if and only if:

1. All property taxes are prohibited.
2. The income tax has no deductions or exemptions and doesn't care how you make your money. If you earn $1 or $1B dollars, you owe taxes. Everybody has skin in the game, and nobody gets a pass.
3. The tax rate is flat. You can't raise taxes on one without raising taxes on all.
4. All these requirements must be part of a constitutional amendment, not a statute that can be undone by a subsequent legislature.
Click to expand...

Can I write you in for any particular office next time around (I voted early)?

Do you think any Republican could politically survive with that kind of a proposal?

I am really big on liquidity. If you receive the cash from your income then you have the money to pay your taxes.
 
I don't have the detail that @Horns11 has... my prediction is this; OVERALL, the Republicans will get more votes because the insanity of the extreme Left has cancelled out any outrage over Trump's tweets.
 
Mr. Deez said:
I'm sure some of them are, but I'll bet close to half of them are "recaptured." Or to put it more bluntly, stolen.
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I believe 82% are stolen from Eanes, where I pay taxes. And yes, as said above, we then privately raise even more money to make up for that.
 
bystander said:
I don't have the detail that @Horns11 has... my prediction is this; OVERALL, the Republicans will get more votes because the insanity of the extreme Left has cancelled out any outrage over Trump's tweets.
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When you say overall, are you talking about House + Senate + Govs + State Legs, or some combination thereof?
 
VYFan said:
I believe 82% are stolen from Eanes, where I pay taxes. And yes, as said above, we then privately raise even more money to make up for that.
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About 59 percent according to their 2018-19 proposed budget statements, but yeah, it's a messed up system. I don't mind funding state education as a whole, but there has to be a better way.
 
Horns11 said:
When you say overall, are you talking about House + Senate + Govs + State Legs, or some combination thereof?
Click to expand...

Yeah... just some combination... as if you had a popular vote. Obviously I could be wrong. It's a coin flip on my prediction.
 
Sangre Naranjada said:
My problem with state income tax is that it becomes too easy for state politicians to follow Washington's lead and carve out so many classes of income, exceptions, deductions, etc that only a portion of people actually end up paying the tax at all.

With property tax the single largest issue is the notion that you never truly own your property even after it has been paid off, so instead of freezing tax rates for homesteads of senior citizens (as is done now), how about cutting the rate in half for seniors who own their property free and clear.
Click to expand...

I've been basically saying this for all the old east Austin home owners who have been there longer than just the last 10 years. Retired, over 65, and no mortgage.
 
On Robin Hood tax distribution
If you look at many of the districts who receive other districts money take a look at the ratio of administration to teachers/ Compare that ratio to districts whose money was taken away.
 
There is a way to fix the "renting your home from the government" thing without a state income tax. It was proposed by state rep Rick Green about 15 years ago. You replace the current property tax setup with a sales tax on homes. You roll that into the price of the home and into your mortgage and pay it in your PITI like most do today. The difference is that, when you pay off your house, you are done paying taxes on it. It never went anywhere because, as Rick told me when I told him I love it, "The Real Estate lobby hates it, so it won't pass."
 
Here are the top ten "takers" of the recapture money:
BROWNSVILLE ISD
PASADENA ISD
LA JOYA ISD
YSLETA ISD
PHARR-SAN JUAN-ALAMO ISD
ALDINE ISD
MESQUITE ISD
SOCORRO ISD
KILLEEN ISD
EDINBURG CISD

I guess I would have to look through all of their specifics, but I guess you're saying that these districts have a lot more money spent on things like administrators and special programming that the "rich" districts don't necessarily have. It sure seems like some of the smaller districts sure spend it on facilities and new stuff, but none of these on the list are very small.
 
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