Why wont Obama win the nomination?

R

RyanUTAustin

1,000+ Posts
There has been alot of conversation on various threads that imply this race is already over and Hillary has the nomination.

I am a bit perplexed by this statement.

Why does HRC have it in the bag?

I think Obama looks better and better everyday.

The Kennedy endorsement is huge and Caroline comparison to JFK will make people think.

What is the reasoning behind your feeling that Clinton will be the democratic parties nominee?
 
The Democratic party has more females than Blacks.
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Exit polling numbers, even coming out of South Carolina.

Obama has been marginalized as the black candidate and is polling less than 25% of whites.

The white democrat flinched when given the opportunity to nominate Obama. I think he'd win the general in a runaway, but don't think he can get past the dems.
 
I still think her support will evaporate mainly because I don't see what her appeal is, but I can't deny that the lemming wing of our party seems to support her.
In any case, but the biggest reason why she would win the nomination (if she does) is the money, organization and lead they have going into a 22 state primary next tuesday. It's just a lot of ground to cover.
 
I will first admit my biases. Although I don't like either Obama or HRC, but I like HRC more probably. but..

most of what I hear about HRC being unbeatable comes from how she polls in the majority of Super Tuesday states. Super Tuesday is going to make it or break it for those two. IF and I mean IF polling holds true to the actually vote, HRC is going to be pretty far ahead of Obama after Super Tuesday.
 
Theu is right - if you look at the Feb. 5 polls - Clinton still leads. But we are starting to see drops in Clinton's numbers and Obama clearly has the emotional momentum.

Interestingly, Edwards is picking up some of the Clinton slough, which could hurt Obama. Also, Obama is running out of time to make up the gap between he and Hillary in some key states.

The bigger question looming for Democrats is what happens if Obama doesn't get the nomination. There is a lot of ill will towards Clinton right now. It will be interesting to see if the Obama supporters are willing to spend the energy on Hillary.
 
I will not have the energy for HRC but Its not like I will vote Republican...those guys are a joke.

Does McCain really think he will win by using the fear tactic about "islamic extremists" if I have to hear him say that one more time I am gonna throw up.

What polls are you guys looking at btw?
 
The vast majority if not all of the Super Tuesday polls were taken before the landslide win in SC and before the endorsement of the Kennedys.

In the end, his bounce from Iowa in NH was about 5-7% and was tempered by the debate, crying, and an exceptional ground game.

We will see soon what the bounce will be from SC and the Kennedys.
 
This is all about the ground game right now - not the media, "snubs", NOW NYS banshees, and prolly not even Teddy. This is coming down to whose campaign organization and GOTV gameplan is going to be executed well enough to beat expectations. Hillary can win the majority of states next Tuesday and still come away wounded.
 
I've been thinking about this very question. I'm a big BO guy and truly want him to win, But I think in a couple of weeks Super Tuesday puts him too far behind. All that being said, I really don't think HRC can win the general unless she goes against Romney. IMO, the dems need to go all in on one or the other and come to the common goal is the White House, and not the nominee. The thing with HRC is her negatives. I sit in a class with 18-20 yr olds everyday, and they hate HRC. These are people who were maybe 10 during the heart of the Clinton era, but her perception is such a reality, that it kills her. She's not my favorite, but when I consider that 3 more seats could open up on the SCOTUS, I don't want a conservative picking the next justice. life would be easier for dems if BO wins the nomination in my humble opinion.
 
For all his positive qualities, I believe in the end he's going to stumble badly somewhere along the way and the Clinton machine will eat him alive.

The Kennedy and Kerry endorsements make me nervous. He's still relatively new to the Wash DC game how much do these guys support him as much as they think they can influence (control) him...? As a conservative, that makes me shutter in much the same way that those on the left shuttered at the influence Cheney/Wolfowitz et al had on W.
 
The reality of super tuesday is that more than likely, obama and clinton will split the delegates and neither will qualify for the nomination until the convention. I hear that deals are already starting to be made. edwards may be able to decide the nominee, it is the only reason he is staying in. should be an interesting convention.
 
Obama is going to get the nomination and he is the Dems best chance to win the national election

Hillary would lose against McCain

and if its a brokered convention Edward will end up going with Obama
 
The reasons that Obama would not win the nomination are many:

1. democratic Latino voters favor Hillary considerably.
2. democratic Women voters favor Hillary considerably.
3. democratic Senior voters favor Hillary considerably.

What Obama needs to do now, is to focus on his electiblity vs. McCain as opposed to Hillary's electibility. I don't get the sense that most voters in these primaries are considering that. Maybe they will now, as McCain has become the probable Republican nominee.
 
His campaign should be relatively subtle, but clear, on one central message: If you vote for Hillary, you're putting McCain in the White House. If you vote for me, you'll put a Democrat in the White House.

That said, I fear that he just won't win enough delegates on Super Tuesday. And it's because BC said it best -- the lemming wing of the Democratic party will be the death of the party (similar to how the evangelical wing is hobbling the Repubs these days).

They vote for Hillary because she's a Clinton. Because she's a name. Because she's a known quantity. They vote for her out of habit -- "I've always voted for the Clinton, might as well do it again." (Note -- plenty of that for Bush on the Repub side, as well -- neither party has a monopoly on stupid voters).
 
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