Why is Saudi Arabia doing this?

[AC]

Small, community centered economies which balance capitalistic profit motive with collectivist participation that benefits everyone is a mix that is potentially more sustainable.

So a commune. OK, I’ll buy you an Island to move to. I’ll pay for it. You just have to live there with anyone who wants to join your commune. No internet capabilities. What do you say Mus?

 

[Musburger1]

So a commune. OK, I’ll buy you an Island to move to. I’ll pay for it. You just have to live there with anyone who wants to join your commune. No internet capabilities. What do you say Mus?

I’m thinking about things like habitat for humanity; collaborative projects that benefit a community and isn’t based on profit motive. Prior to our lifetimes neighbors erected houses, barns, etc. I’m not talking about top down mandated government control and I wouldn’t feel comfortable in a hippy commune, although some people might prefer that lifestyle.

Profit isn’t everything. Picking up trash along the road isn’t done by private companies because it doesn’t make money. Does that mean it isn’t valuable to a community? Maybe in Iatro’s world.

 

[AC]

 

[iatrogenic]

Welcome to Musberger’s strange little world.

 

[mchammer]

Welcome to Musberger’s strange little world.

I blocked musberger long ago, not because he was uncivil, but because it was ridiculous. When I used to travel to Russia frequently, there was always a musberger type op-ed in the Russian times.

 

[iatrogenic]

Little bit of truth sprinkled on an anti-American diatribe stew of failing government, failing economy, and a whole bunch of conspiracy theories throughout the world. For dessert he has a Putin endless salad bowl.

 

[LongestHorn]

 

[UTChE96]

OPEC agreed to make cuts, but not enough to raise the price. The US is debating options.

If no action is taken, half the industry dies, Exxon and the big boys pick up the scraps for pennies on the dollar, massive unemployment hits the oil industry and effects downstream industry and state tax revenue as well.

Another possibility would be (mandatory?) production cuts. Who determines how much and which companies comply I have no idea.

A third possibility is a taxpayer multi-billion dollar bailout.

Maybe there are other possibilities?

Shale Drillers Warming to a Once-Unthinkable Idea: a Cap on Oil

That is an overreaction. No realistic amount of production cuts would have raised the price with demand artificially depressed due to the COVID19 situation.

Demand will sort itself out as the COVID19 situation is worked out. It could take months or even a year but it will come back. Some inefficient and overleveraged producers will probably go bankrupt but not half of all producers. Unemployment will go up but that's normal during the busts. It will recover.

Overall I think this will be a good result for the industry. After all these decades, the US is now coordinating supply with OPEC. This will help to modulated the booms and the busts. It also keeps OPEC+ honest since they will like to keep the shale supply from continuing to eat up their market share at higher prices.

 

[Musburger1]

That is an overreaction. No realistic amount of production cuts would have raised the price with demand artificially depressed due to the COVID19 situation.

Demand will sort itself out as the COVID19 situation is worked out. It could take months or even a year but it will come back. Some inefficient and overleveraged producers will probably go bankrupt but not half of all producers. Unemployment will go up but that's normal during the busts. It will recover.

Overall I think this will be a good result for the industry. After all these decades, the US is now coordinating supply with OPEC. This will help to modulated the booms and the busts. It also keeps OPEC+ honest since they will like to keep the shale supply from continuing to eat up their market share at higher prices.

You could be right. But what if demand doesn’t return anywhere near prior levels? There is a great deal of debt that has accumulated. It must either be defaulted on or bailed out with money printing. The former will require a long adjustment period and the national mindset of taking on debt will be replaced by a mindset of frugality. This may be prudent but it isn’t compatible with growth. If money printing and bailouts is the path (and certainly that appears to be) a high rate of inflation will be the result. People would flee the dollar.

 

[Monahorns]

Overall I think this will be a good result for the industry. After all these decades, the US is now coordinating supply with OPEC. This will help to modulated the booms and the busts. It also keeps OPEC+ honest since they will like to keep the shale supply from continuing to eat up their market share at higher prices.

Nah. Just means more groups involved in the central planning.

You can look at oil price historically. OPEC is a force for boom and bust. More since they were created. As more groups pile on, there will be more booms and bust.

Just produce where the $ revenue is at peak. That itself will modulate $/barrel. That is where market forces would guide supply anyway.

 

[mchammer]

As more groups pile on, there will be more booms and bust.

You mean like the US economy before the FED was created? You just unwittingly endorsed the FED. Well done.

 

[UTChE96]

Nah. Just means more groups involved in the central planning.

You can look at oil price historically. OPEC is a force for boom and bust. More since they were created. As more groups pile on, there will be more booms and bust.

Just produce where the $ revenue is at peak. That itself will modulate $/barrel. That is where market forces would guide supply anyway.

Just to clarify, I am not a fan of OPEC. But they are not going anywhere so I am glad the US now has more leverage over their decision making.

As much as I have despised OPEC for the oil embargo of the 70s, they did help modulate the last bust period in 2015-2016 by voluntarily cutting production. What they finally realized is that they no longer have the pricing power they once did because of US Shale.

 

[Musburger1]

MoA - How The Coronavirus Killed The Shale Industry

This analyst thinks demand will not recover for at least 2 years and probably longer. He thinks the following occur.
1. Banks seize sizeable chunks of assets on $100 billion of unrecoverable investment.
2. Massive unemployment in oil industry which won’t return for years.
3. Price remains around $20 level due to glut and virus induced drop of demand.
4. Electric vehicles can’t compete with low gas prices.
5. Believes OPEC countries will cheat.
6. Explains why Mexico didn’t go along.
7. Canada tar sands is dead.

Author doesn’t address speculation Trump would implement tariffs and set the price on oil. But if he does, the consumer would be subsidizing the industry to keep it alive. Can the consumer do this in a time of recession/depression?

 

[iatrogenic]

MoA - How The Coronavirus Killed The Shale Industry

This analyst thinks demand will not recover for at least 2 years and probably longer. He thinks the following occur.
1. Banks seize sizeable chunks of assets on $100 billion of unrecoverable investment.
2. Massive unemployment in oil industry which won’t return for years.
3. Price remains around $20 level due to glut and virus induced drop of demand.
4. Electric vehicles can’t compete with low gas prices.
5. Believes OPEC countries will cheat.
6. Explains why Mexico didn’t go along.
7. Canada tar sands is dead.

Author doesn’t address speculation Trump would implement tariffs and set the price on oil. But if he does, the consumer would be subsidizing the industry to keep it alive. Can the consumer do this in a time of recession/depression?

What else do you want for your birthday to make you happy Mus?

 

[Musburger1]

What else do you want for your birthday to make you happy Mus?

It doesn’t matter what I want. What must happen will happen. Hope is good, but only when grounded in reality.

 

[Musburger1]

MoA - How The Coronavirus Killed The Shale Industry

This analyst thinks demand will not recover for at least 2 years and probably longer. He thinks the following occur.
1. Banks seize sizeable chunks of assets on $100 billion of unrecoverable investment.
2. Massive unemployment in oil industry which won’t return for years.
3. Price remains around $20 level due to glut and virus induced drop of demand.
4. Electric vehicles can’t compete with low gas prices.
5. Believes OPEC countries will cheat.
6. Explains why Mexico didn’t go along.
7. Canada tar sands is dead.

Author doesn’t address speculation Trump would implement tariffs and set the price on oil. But if he does, the consumer would be subsidizing the industry to keep it alive. Can the consumer do this in a time of recession/depression?

And

8. We will need to ramp up Middle East oil again.

My comment. Iranian oil and Venezuelan oil are on the table, but will require war to gain control of it.

 

[iatrogenic]

grounded in reality

 

[Musburger1]

So a commune. OK, I’ll buy you an Island to move to. I’ll pay for it. You just have to live there with anyone who wants to join your commune. No internet capabilities. What do you say Mus?

Why don’t you buy the island for yourself and move your *** there? I want to reform this country. One way or another it’s going to happen. You want the corruption that has resulted in collapse to continue. It can’t. It’s over. Printing dollars and deciding who gets them isn’t a solution and won’t work.

 

[UTChE96]

MoA - How The Coronavirus Killed The Shale Industry

This analyst thinks demand will not recover for at least 2 years and probably longer. He thinks the following occur.
1. Banks seize sizeable chunks of assets on $100 billion of unrecoverable investment.
2. Massive unemployment in oil industry which won’t return for years.
3. Price remains around $20 level due to glut and virus induced drop of demand.
4. Electric vehicles can’t compete with low gas prices.
5. Believes OPEC countries will cheat.
6. Explains why Mexico didn’t go along.
7. Canada tar sands is dead.

Author doesn’t address speculation Trump would implement tariffs and set the price on oil. But if he does, the consumer would be subsidizing the industry to keep it alive. Can the consumer do this in a time of recession/depression?

What are this guys credentials? I couldn't find them.

 

[Musburger1]

What are this guys credentials? I couldn't find them.

His primary credential would be he doesn’t represent Wall Street. That in itself is a plus.

 

[Monahorns]

You mean like the US economy before the FED was created? You just unwittingly endorsed the FED. Well done.

No mac. I didn't. Historically the economy has had larger and more frequent recessions since the Fed was created.

The Great Depression happened with the Fed. The recession in the early 20s as well. 70s stagflation. 91, 2001, Great Recession.

Knowing history makes me confident that central planning causes more problems.

 

[iatrogenic]

Why don’t you buy the island for yourself and move your *** there? I want to reform this country. One way or another it’s going to happen. You want the corruption that has resulted in collapse to continue. It can’t. It’s over. Printing dollars and deciding who gets them isn’t a solution and won’t work.

You want to reform something you don’t even understand? Do yourself a favor and take up something a little more aligned with your skill set, like bouncing off rubber walls or wetting the bed while sucking your thumb and worrying about the country’s imminent collapse. At least you’re experienced in those fields.

 

[Musburger1]

You want to reform something you don’t even understand? Do yourself a favor and take up something a little more aligned with your skill set, like bouncing off rubber walls or wetting the bed while sucking your thumb and worrying about the country’s imminent collapse. At least you’re experienced in those fields.

AC, please take this a-hole with you to your crappy island.

 

[AC]

What are this guys credentials? I couldn't find them.

I ignored Mus and Longest Horn as of my last post. But my educated guess is very little. He tells us nothing about himself, just lobs his bombs.

 

[UTChE96]

His primary credential would be he doesn’t represent Wall Street. That in itself is a plus.

Thats fine. But you referred to him as an analyst when in reality hes just a random dude with a blog.

 

[Musburger1]

Thats fine. But you referred to him as an analyst when in reality hes just a random dude with a blog.

You don’t need credentials to analyze. Anyone using critical thinking is an analyst. It’s desirable to have experience of course. That’s why Troy Aikman would be preferred over a figure skater as co-broadcaster of an NFL game. A high school coach would not have the credentials that an Aikman would have, but does understand football and in some instances he might observe or make a deduction that Aikman doesn’t see. Of course, a layman that understands little and can’t evaluate an opinion himself would simply choose to take the word of the most credentialed. Sometimes that’s a mistake.

 

[AC]

I agree, don’t remember calling Mus an analyst but I’m over 50 so I forget things sometimes.

 

[Musburger1]

I agree, don’t remember calling Mus an analyst but I’m over 50 so I forget things sometimes.

I think he was referring to the Moon of A blogger, not me. But yes, I do attempt to analyze arguments on their merit and not just take the word of “the designated expert.”

 

[Musburger1]

1. Banks seize sizeable chunks of assets on $100 billion of unrecoverable investment.
2. Massive unemployment in oil industry which won’t return for years.
3. Price remains around $20 level due to glut and virus induced drop of demand.
4. Electric vehicles can’t compete with low gas prices.
5. Believes OPEC countries will cheat.
6. Explains why Mexico didn’t go along.
7. Canada tar sands is dead.
8. The US will begin importing oil from the Middle East again.

I simply summarized what the blogger wrote. His arguments seem sound to me. IMO, the likelihood of these points proving accurate is correlated to the duration of the virus.

1. Profitability is tied to price which is dependent on demand. The virus has been relevant for a month and appears it will remain so for at least that much longer. It seems to me even if the virus subsided by the summer, enough damage will have been done to crush demand long after. US businesses fail and banks move in.

2. Same

3. How is price going back up if cuts in production are less than the drop in demand?

4. People with even less income aren’t going to purchase expensive electric vehicles when a) they can’t get credit and b) gas is $1.00 a gallon.

5. Mexico is telling the Saudis to go to hell. They were supposed to agree to a 400K barrel reduction but they are only going to do 100K. How many other countries are going to sacrifice when Mexico won’t?

6. See number 5.

7. Canada’s industry is even worse off than ours.

8. If US shale production is cut in half and Canada implodes, we have to get oil somewhere.

 

[Dionysus]

Gentlemen,

The West Mall is starting to look like the Women’s Basketball forum with all the personal attacks and insults. We are all going through an unusual and stressful time right now.

I am asking you to temper your dialogue with each other a little and keep your arguments to the ideas, not the person. If you can’t tolerate someone’s posts, maybe you should put them on Ignore for a while.

Help me out with this?

Love you guys!